Why a candidate with the most votes can lose in the US election

Citizens of the United States will vote to elect their next president on November 5. However, it is possible that the candidate who receives the most votes may not be declared the winner. The US democracy has some unique aspects that raise various questions. For a long time, the United States has portrayed its democracy as exemplary, particularly after achieving independence or removing autocratic leaders, serving as a model for countries rebuilding their democracies. Today, while Democrats embrace the idea of a multicultural democracy, Republicans are trying to revive the old white supremacy to make the country great again. As a result, the concepts of multicultural democracy and white supremacy are now at a conflicting juncture.

A significant aspect is that this conflict existed even before Donald Trump. Since the 1964 election, a majority of white voters in the United States have consistently supported Republican candidates. This trend began after Democratic leader Lyndon B. Johnson took office and enacted civil rights and voting rights laws, leading to substantial changes in the social and political landscape of the US. These laws secured many rights for non-white citizens, which angered white supremacists. Following the passage of these laws, many white and conservative voters began to lean towards the Republican Party. There is a growing "crisis of democracy" in Western countries, primarily driven by economic inequality, the fragmentation of the middle class, and the politics of mass immigration. However, another major factor behind this crisis is demographic formation.

In particular, the demographic shifts among white voters in the US pose a threat to Western democracies. Since demographic trends are not easily altered and are linked to America’s increasing disorder, this turmoil could have a lasting impact on global politics. Therefore, the 2024 presidential election can be viewed as part of a long-term political struggle. This struggle will determine whether the historical categorization based on skin color and other characteristics will dissipate in America or if the country will move towards a re-establishment of white supremacy.

In 2016, Donald Trump leveraged the frustrations among white voters to secure the Republican nomination, further solidifying a white-centric strategy. If Trump were to win the presidency again, America's historical racial and political divisions would likely intensify, leading to increased conflict. His plans include deporting millions of undocumented immigrants, which would exacerbate these tensions. However, if Trump loses, it doesn’t mean that this conflict will cease entirely; it will continue. The ideology of Trump's "Make America Great Again" has already become intertwined with the core beliefs of the Republican Party. After President Obama was re-elected in 2012, the Republican Party realized it needed to pay attention to minority voters. To this end, the Republican National Committee developed a strategy. However, at the state level, they took opposite steps, enacting measures aimed at attracting white voters that curtailed minority voting rights and redrew congressional districts along racial lines.

When Barack Obama was elected as the first Black president in 2008, a significant portion of white voters began to rethink the diversity of the US population and its implications. While this represented a symbol of social progress for many, it also instilled fears among some about a shift in the balance of traditional power. In the 1960s, white individuals constituted 90 per cent of the US population; this figure has now dropped to 70 per cent. By 2044, they are projected to represent only 49.7 per cent of the population. Such demographic changes could have profound political and psychological impacts. Although white Americans still outnumber Black, Hispanic, and other groups, for the first time in history, they are expected to become politically marginalized. The political influence of white voters in the US has already begun to wane, leading to feelings of displacement and a sense of being cornered among them.

Research shows that 60 per cent of white voters feel like "foreigners in their own country." If a political party relies on a demography whose political influence is likely to decline, this reliance may be seen as self-destructive. However, in recent years, the support of non-white voters for the Republicans has increased due to the messaging around economic improvement. Harvard University’s Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt have pointed out that there are certain institutions in the American political system that can strengthen the power of political minorities against the majority. These institutions were primarily established to ensure stability, such as prioritizing the Electoral College over the popular vote in presidential elections.

In this way, Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016 despite receiving fewer popular votes than his opponent Hillary Clinton, thanks to the Electoral College. Similarly, each state, regardless of its population, is allotted two Senate seats. This means that both highly populated states and those with much smaller populations receive the same number of seats. By 2040, approximately 70 per cent of Americans are projected to live in just 15 states, yet there will be only 30 representatives in the Senate for this 70 per cent of the population.

On the other hand, the remaining 30 per cent of the population living in the other states will have 70 representatives in the Senate. The combination of demographic trends, the Trump-aligned Republican Party, and the unpopularity of certain constitutional provisions is likely to create significant disorder in American democracy in the coming years. While the strong institutional foundations of the United States can protect against autocrats, political tensions and conflicts seem poised to escalate. The question remains whether Americans can unite at the federal level and marginalize the extreme right and left. Currently, that seems unlikely. This year's election will not provide a clear solution to victory or defeat. If Vice President Kamala Harris wins, American democracy will not be fully safeguarded; conversely, if Trump wins, it will not destroy democracy overnight. Instead, it will be another chapter in a long-term racial and political conflict that began nearly six decades ago, with no signs of resolution in sight.

Americans currently have little trust in government institutions. They look at a Congress that is functioning poorly and see complex problems—such as gun violence and climate change—that the government has failed to address effectively.

Due to their inability to elect leaders, the Republican majority in the House of Representatives paralyzed Congress for several weeks in October 2023. However, even without such obstacles, critical legislative matters are proceeding at a sluggish pace in both the House and Senate. The vast divide between Democratic and Republican supporters means that half of the country remains dissatisfied with many decisions made by the elected government. Following the 2020 election results, many Republicans, under Trump’s leadership, expressed significant dissatisfaction, claiming they were disregarded in the electoral process and even asserting that the election was "stolen" from them. This discontent led them to attack the Capitol without hesitation.

Peaceful transitions of power are a hallmark of democracy, but there have been few precedents for such occurrences in the United States. Winning the popular vote is not the primary concern. It is not surprising that trust in democratic institutions has declined in recent years, but such a situation might not have been expected in a country like the United States. In addition to recent examples of democratic erosion, there are many longstanding anti-democratic practices in the US. One key issue is that winning the presidency requires more than just receiving the most votes; a candidate must secure at least 270 electoral votes. As a result, a candidate who receives fewer popular votes can still be elected president due to the Electoral College system.

Rayhan Ahmed Tapader: Researcher and Columnist