Why the US election matters to the world

A story from November 4. No, it's not a surreal or magical tale; it's a true story. I entered Karwan Bazar, the largest wholesale kitchen market in the capital of Bangladesh, Dhaka, around noon. Along both sides of the street, a number of impoverished, underprivileged, uneducated, and working-class people were selling vegetables. Suddenly, I overheard one of them speaking in their regional dialect, saying, “This time, Trump will win.” My ears perked up. An interesting discussion! I stopped and stood still. I saw a man in a worn-out vest, a lungi (traditional cloth worn around the waist), and barefoot, selling red spinach and malabar spinach. Another vendor, in a similar condition, nodded in agreement to what the first one said.

I often have telephone conversations with many diplomats and former secretaries from Bangladesh on various topics. For the past two to three months, I’ve been hearing their routine discussions about the US elections. But the conversation between these two vegetable vendors seemed extremely significant to me. People who are not expected to have any connection with or knowledge of the United States were already calculating who would be the next president of that country! Why? How has the US election become a topic of conversation among the marginalized people of Bangladesh? Normally, outside of a few news reports, ordinary people would never find the US elections to be an important matter. Why has it become so this time?

I asked the man, "What benefit will it bring you if Trump wins or doesn’t win?" He seemed a bit embarrassed, as if he felt that discussing such matters was something only the "respectable" people should do. I waited for his response. Realizing what I was getting at, he replied, "What does it matter to us? Whoever wins, we’ll have to keep working to make a living."

I was even more surprised by his response. The very same thing that working-class people in Bangladesh say about their own elections—he was saying about the US elections! Does this mean that even the marginalized people are now relating the US elections to their own lives in Bangladesh? Have we ever seen ordinary people in this country show such concern about the US elections before? No, never.

Not only Bangladesh, but also Russia, Ukraine, Lebanon, Gaza, the two Koreas, Taiwan, China, India, Sudan, Congo, Mexico, and NATO all find this election to be extremely important and significant. Every four years, the US holds its presidential election on Tuesday, after the first Monday of November. According to this schedule, the election has been held on November 5. The election battle between the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, which we have witnessed over the past few months, will be a milestone in the country’s electoral history.

It can be assumed that if Vice President Kamala Harris is elected president, the internal and foreign policies of the Biden administration will continue. President Biden and Kamala Harris's direct mentor is former US President Barack Obama, within a circle that also includes former First Lady Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton, in 2016, ran against Trump but lost the Electoral College vote. That said, the policy may become a bit more dynamic or flexible in certain cases; however, if Trump is elected, he may revert to his "America First" policy, which could lead him to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement—a move that has raised concerns not just in the US (where half of the population is worried), but around the world.

Trump will undoubtedly reduce NATO's spending, which is deeply concerning to the highly industrialized European countries within NATO. Along with that, many bilateral relationships will be reassessed. Trump is expected to withdraw support from countries that have Democratic party affiliations, and this shift is so sharp and clear that even the most ordinary people around the world are hearing about it.

Who becomes president—I'm not focusing on that notion; but the current global new order means that no matter who becomes president, handling global affairs will not be easy. For example, how will the new president take a stance on the Israel-Gaza-Lebanon conflict? It's not just about war; Israel has declared UN Secretary-General António Guterres as a "persona non grata," an unwelcome figure on its soil. The United Nations has stated that a country cannot declare a UN official as persona non grata because the person is not a diplomat—he is the head of an international service. While countries like Ethiopia, Mali, Armenia, and Sudan have previously declared UN staff as unwelcome, the situation with Israel is not the same, and not on the same scale. On one hand, it's Israel; on the other, they have banned the Secretary-General himself. The largest contributor to the UN is the United States, which is also Israel's ally, even though there are tensions between Israel and the Biden administration. How will the new president handle this complicated situation?

An even bigger event took place from October 22 to 24, with the BRICS summit held in Russia. This time, 13 new countries joined the BRICS group, which already includes major countries like China, India, Brazil, South Africa, and Russia. Furthermore, nine more countries are waiting to join. A significant development at this year's BRICS summit was the improvement in relations between China and India. Despite having substantial trade and business ties, India’s relations with Canada and the United States are not going well.

If Trump is elected, it’s likely that the personal good relationship he shares with India’s Prime Minister would help restore normalcy in US-India relations. However, what will Kamala Harris’s approach be if she becomes president? How will she handle the potential shift of India towards Russia and China? While BRICS is often described as an economic development partnership, it’s clear to everyone that it is, in many ways, a counter-effort to the US economy. The primary goal of BRICS now is to reduce the influence of the US dollar. And in trying to achieve this, there is no guarantee that there won't be significant political tensions along the way.

Next, there’s the war in Ukraine, the Taiwan crisis, and the Iran issue—each of these problems has now intensified significantly. Additionally, in some smaller countries where the Biden administration has influence, there could be a shift in policies if Trump comes to power. Many people believe the world is now on the brink of a Third World War, and there is no doubt that the US election is closely related to this possibility. That’s why this election holds such immense significance for ordinary people around the world. Let’s see what the outcome will be. To get the full results, we’ll have to wait a few more days.

Mohsin Habib: Journalist, Writer, and International Analyst.