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US Election

Will America get its first woman president or a second Donald Trump term?

 VB  Desk

VB Desk

Wed, 30 Oct 24

Just five more days till US Election. Soon the world will get to know whether the United States will have Kamala Harris as its first female president or if her rival Donald Trump will become a second-term resident of the White House.

Recent polls indicate a close race between current Vice President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump. Campaigns are focusing on battleground states, and voters are closely analyzing the candidates' policies.

The United States, as a leading global superpower and a foundational democratic state, consists of 50 states. However, most states consistently vote for the same party, with only a handful having the potential to swing either way. These seven critical states are known as battleground or swing states, determining the outcome of the election.

Unlike the other 43 states with clear positions, swing states are seen as crucial for determining victory or defeat. Polls show that the popularity of both candidates in these seven states is within a few percentage points of each other, making predictions very difficult, according to political analysts.

On November 5, voters in the United States will choose their next president. This election was initially a repeat of 2020. However, in July, current President Joe Biden suspended his campaign and withdrew his candidacy, paving the way for Vice President Kamala Harris to enter the race.

Since entering the race in late July, Harris has been slightly ahead of Trump in national polls. Following the only debate between the two candidates on September 10, the competitiveness has remained relatively stable. As election day approaches, popularity has fluctuated.

In recent days, the margins in the swing states have tightened. Currently, according to polling averages, neither candidate holds a decisive lead.

In Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, there have been several lead changes since early August, but Trump is currently slightly ahead in all of them. In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris was occasionally leading by two or three points since early August, but Trump’s position has significantly strengthened in recent days, particularly in Pennsylvania, where he is narrowly ahead.

Before Trump's victory in the 2016 presidential election, these three states were strongholds for the Democrats. Biden reclaimed these states in 2020 to become the resident of the White House. If Harris can do the same, she will be on the path to victory.

While such polls are a useful guide to a candidate's overall popularity nationwide, they are not an accurate way to predict results.

In the United States, voting is conducted using the Electoral College system, where each state is allocated several votes based on its population size. A candidate needs to secure 270 of the total 538 Electoral College votes to win.

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