World is paying attention on November 5

Only a few days remain until the presidential election in the United States, the world's most powerful and influential country. There is intense excitement surrounding the event. All media outlets are reporting that a tough battle is shaping up. At this moment, both candidates and their campaign teams are diving into swing states—those states that could lean either way. To elaborate, the candidates are particularly focused on the states that helped Donald Trump win in 2016 but supported Joe Biden in 2020.

This time, swing states in this vast country include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. However, what these swing states will decide is still unclear. It's worth noting that there is no guarantee on the total number of swing states. The aforementioned states changed their preferences in the last election, and this time the situation could vary. In 1992, Bill Clinton became president by defeating Republican candidate and then-President George W Bush, with 22 states changing their voting preferences. These 22 states were considered swing states.

One notable aspect of the current Democratic and Republican showdown is that several high-profile Republican politicians are openly supporting the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, while some Democratic leaders are backing Trump. For instance, a key Republican figure, Liz Cheney, is directly opposing Trump. On the other hand, Tulsi Gabbard, the Vice Chair of the Democratic National Committee, has openly supported Trump, calling Kamala Harris a "dangerous hypocrite." Such occurrences are not commonly seen in American politics. Although there is no rule in US politics that mandates supporting one's own party's candidate, individual freedom in politics is established in that country. Unlike in Bangladesh, there is no Article 70 that prohibits speaking against party decisions. This is where the beauty of American politics lies, regardless of the foreign policy situation.

Tension is not just in the United States but nearly across the globe. The US election is significant for all countries in modern times; however, this election feels like a matter of life and death for many. The internal fortunes of numerous countries are intertwined with this election. Europe has always had some influence on US elections, given the political, historical, and cultural ties between Europe and the United States. After all, it was the hands of people from Europe that shaped modern America. Nevertheless, this time Europe has become desperate, wanting to see Kamala Harris as president by any means necessary. They believe that if the Democrats do not come to power, Europe will face a serious security threat. Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that if he becomes president, the US might withdraw from NATO. Even if that doesn't happen, there is no doubt that Trump would significantly cut the huge budget for NATO. This possibility has left Europe deeply concerned.

Unofficially, Democrats and Europeans perceive Donald Trump as tolerant towards Russian President Vladimir Putin. It is alleged that Russia helped elect Trump in 2016. Additionally, during the COVID-19 pandemic, there were claims that Trump secretly supplied vaccines to Putin. This accusation even comes from within the Democratic Party. The matter doesn’t end there. Putin has repeatedly stated that if he were president, the war in Ukraine would cease within hours. This leads many to assume that if Trump becomes president, he would pressure Ukraine to cede the Russian-occupied territories. This assertion is not entirely baseless. He has shown no willingness to spend billions of dollars on the Ukraine war. If Ukraine were to lose this conflict, it would essentially mean Europe’s defeat as well. Most major European countries are currently aiding Ukraine with weapons and finances against Russia. The situation has become so intense that the ruling Labour Party in Britain has openly thrown its support behind the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, not so much to see her win, but more to prevent Trump from coming to power.

In the United States, the Latin American vote is highly significant. Nearly 350 million voters are of Cuban, Mexican, Puerto Rican, and Brazilian descent, making up about 15 per cent of the total electorate. Among them, approximately 60 per cent have consistently supported the Democrats. However, despite Trump's anti-immigration stance, there is a possibility that Latino voters may lean towards the Republicans this time. This shift could be attributed to Trump’s repeated emphasis on improving the economy and enhancing the standard of living. Additionally, among Latin American voters, there is a decreasing sentiment that people from their countries cannot come to the United States.

There are over 4 million Indians in the US, and among these voters, Republican support is higher. On the other hand, support for the Democrats has waned among Muslim voters due to Israel's actions in Gaza and Lebanon, which resulted in thousands of civilian casualties. Meanwhile, the Jewish community tends to support Trump. Despite all this, the likelihood of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris being elected remains high. A primary reason for this is Trump’s personal behavior and his tendency to make controversial remarks. Following the 2020 election, he faced allegations related to the January 6th attack on the Oval Office, numerous accusations of sexual misconduct, and tax evasion.

Many believe that if Trump is elected, he will not show responsibility this time, knowing it’s his last term. However, it’s also true that during his four-year presidency, the number of wars worldwide was the lowest in nearly 15 years, and US involvement in the internal affairs of other countries was minimal. Notably, Trump has had particularly close relationships with leaders such as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Undoubtedly, these leaders would prefer Trump to return to the presidency.

On the other hand, Trump's presidency could also lead to decisive military actions. For example, Israel might receive a full green light to attack Iran. Additionally, there are smaller countries where the Democratic Party has influence, and Trump's presidency could change the US perspective on those nations. Some argue that regardless of who becomes president in the US, foreign policy remains unchanged. This assertion is not entirely accurate, especially in Trump’s case. There is no doubt that Trump’s perspective on various smaller and economically weaker countries would shift.

As a result, people around the world are eagerly awaiting the outcome of the US election. Many believe that November 5 will determine not only the future of the United States but also the economic and political trajectories of many other countries.

Mohsin Habib: Journalist and writer.