How much will rumours influence this election

The much-discussed 13th national parliamentary election is set to be held on February 12. As the election draws closer, political tension and violence are rising, accompanied by a rapid spread of rumours and disinformation. Alongside street politics, the virtual world has turned into a battlefield of an “information war”. Fake news on social media, AI-generated deepfake videos and fabricated photo cards have created a dangerous reality that can influence voter decisions. This raises a critical question: how much impact can rumours have on the upcoming election?

Rumours are not a new political weapon, particularly in Bangladesh. However, in the digital age, their speed, reach and impact have multiplied. In the past, rumours spread through tea stalls, markets or public transport. Now, Facebook, YouTube, TikTok and WhatsApp have become the main channels. With the widespread availability of smartphones and mobile internet, unverified information can reach thousands within moments, leaving little time or opportunity for fact-checking.

Data from fact-checking organisations such as Dismislab and Rumour Scanner show that a large portion of recent disinformation is political, with most of it election-centric. The language and presentation of such content are carefully designed to provoke emotion, fear or anger, targeting feelings rather than reason. As a result, fake news often appears more believable and spreads faster than verified information. These rumours not only cause confusion but, in many cases, directly fuel violence, voter fear and the deterioration of the election environment. The interaction between real-world politics and the virtual sphere has made the electoral landscape increasingly complex, where a single rumour can sometimes change the course of events.

The direct link between rumours and violence
The most dangerous aspect of election-related rumours is their violent outcome. In Sherpur, recent election-time tension escalated after rumours spread around an incident, eventually leading to deaths during clashes. Later, false news about fatalities triggered renewed unrest, further complicating the situation. Similar incidents have occurred repeatedly in the past. These examples show how disinformation can quickly turn deadly in the real world.

Analysis of past incidents suggests that election-time rumours often exaggerate isolated or sudden events. Distorted information then spreads through local networks, sometimes via social media posts, sometimes through audio messages, and at times even through mosque loudspeakers. This creates public anger and a desire for retaliation before the truth emerges.

Observations by the Election Commission and law enforcement agencies also indicate that the risk of conflict increases sharply as soon as rumours spread. In areas with existing political polarisation, a single piece of fake news can rapidly push groups into confrontation. In such cases, rumours go beyond mere misinformation and become an effective tool for inciting violence. This reality shows that failing to counter election-time rumours can threaten not only the electoral environment but also public safety.

Impact of rumours on voter behaviour
Voters are the primary targets of election-time rumours, and this election is no exception. Claims such as “the election will not be held”, “voting has ended at a particular centre” or “there will be attacks if you go to vote” are being widely circulated. Such rumours create fear and uncertainty. In many cases, voters decide not to go to polling centres before verifying the information. This undermines democratic participation and fulfils the objectives of those spreading the rumours.

These rumours are particularly effective during elections because voters are forced to make quick decisions. Fake news spread on election day or the night before, such as claims of polling suspension, centre takeovers or impending violence, can create panic and keep voters at home. Old videos of violence or chaos from previous elections are often presented as current events, further confusing voters and discouraging participation. This leads to lower turnout and ultimately raises questions about the election’s legitimacy.

Fact-checking organisations have observed that most voter-targeted rumours are spread at the last moment, leaving little scope for verification. With the 13th national parliamentary election just a week away, social media is now flooded with rumours, making it increasingly difficult to distinguish truth from falsehood.

Social media, the new battleground of electoral influence
In recent years, social media has evolved from a platform for expression into a major arena for political influence. From the Arab Spring in Cairo’s Tahrir Square to mass movements in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal, social media has played a significant role in political change. These experiences show that online platforms can act both as organisers of movements and as tools for spreading political ideologies.

Bangladesh currently has more than 60 million social media users, accounting for 34.3 per cent of the population. Of these, around 60 million use Facebook, while TikTok has 46 million users. LinkedIn and Instagram users number 9.9 million and 7.5 million respectively. This vast user base has made social media an extremely influential medium during elections.

With a large share of users being young, political parties and independent candidates have placed these platforms at the centre of their election strategies. Parties openly acknowledge that online campaigning now outweighs offline efforts. According to Dr Saimum Parvez, special assistant to the BNP chairperson’s foreign affairs committee, social media has effectively become an unregulated space where fake photo cards, misleading news, rumours and disinformation spread rapidly.

At the same time, parties are also trying to use social media positively to engage young voters. Mahabub Alam, head of the NCP’s election media sub-committee, said plans are in place for targeted online campaigns to motivate young people and increase turnout. This highlights how online campaigning has become a decisive factor in shaping voter behaviour.

However, analysts warn that social media algorithms are fragmenting users into separate information bubbles. Liberal and conservative users often live in different realities, receiving contrasting narratives about the same events. This division creates fertile ground for rumours, disinformation and AI-driven misleading content to spread rapidly. As a result, experts fear that the influence of social media in the upcoming election could be deeper and more complex than ever before, making public awareness as crucial as state monitoring.

Misuse of AI
The biggest new challenge in this election is artificial intelligence. According to Dismislab and Rumour Scanner, the use of AI-driven deepfake content has increased by several hundred per cent over the past year. Around the election, misuse of this technology has added a new dimension to the spread of rumours and disinformation. Multiple attempts have already been detected, including audio clips mimicking political leaders’ voices, misleading videos created through selective editing, and fake videos or photos of foreign leaders used to influence public opinion.

A particularly worrying trend is the spread of fake photo cards designed to resemble content from reputable news outlets, using copied logos and layouts. Because these closely resemble mainstream media reports, it has become difficult for ordinary readers and voters to distinguish truth from falsehood. Many such contents are shared without verification, further enhancing their credibility.

The Election Commission is taking this threat seriously. Ahead of the February 12 referendum and parliamentary election, the commission has issued several photo cards clearly stating that the creation and dissemination of fake images, videos, audio or deepfakes using AI are strictly prohibited. Voters have also been urged to verify information through the commission’s official website. These steps indicate that AI-based disinformation is being treated as an immediate and real threat to the electoral system.

The most dangerous aspect of AI deepfakes is their credibility. Earlier rumours often raised suspicion due to linguistic or visual inconsistencies. AI-generated content, however, can be so polished that it misleads not only the public but also political activists and journalists. In a tense election environment, a single fake video or audio clip can instantly create doubt, anger and fear.

In Bangladesh, this risk is amplified because digital literacy and verification awareness remain relatively limited despite rapid social media growth. AI-driven disinformation not only confuses voters but also erodes trust in the electoral system, discouraging participation and weakening democracy.

State preparedness and limitations
Although the Election Commission, police, RAB and cyber units claim to be monitoring election-time rumours and disinformation, the reality is that completely preventing them is nearly impossible. Measures such as special monitoring or fact-checking cells, social media surveillance and granting magisterial powers to law enforcement have been taken. However, the speed and reach of disinformation often outpace state responses.

Experts note that the lack of real-time coordination with social media platforms makes rapid content removal difficult. In many cases, misleading posts reach thousands before being identified as disinformation. Even when removed later, much of the damage has already been done. Technological limitations also persist. While law enforcement agencies use some professional software, monitoring cells still largely rely on open-source intelligence, making it time-consuming to detect AI-driven deepfakes, coordinated disinformation networks or campaigns originating abroad.

In this context, the need for international cooperation has also emerged. Chief adviser of the interim government Professor Muhammad Yunus has sought assistance from the UN human rights office to counter election-related disinformation. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk has acknowledged the challenge and assured support for Bangladesh. This suggests the problem has an international dimension, not just a domestic one.



Analysts argue that this crisis cannot be resolved by law enforcement alone. Alongside state preparedness, clear policies, modern technological capacity and effective coordination among the Election Commission, law enforcement agencies, technology platforms and fact-checking organisations are essential. Without this, efforts to counter rumours and disinformation will continue to face limitations.

The first and most urgent step in combating election-time disinformation is strengthening institutional coordination. In a densely populated country like Bangladesh, faster information sharing among the Election Commission, law enforcement and cyber units is vital for quick detection and verification of suspicious content. Equally important is establishing proactive and effective communication frameworks with social media platforms to enable rapid removal of harmful content.

From a policy perspective, clear limits on the use of AI-generated content during elections are needed. Mandatory disclosure of artificially created images, videos or audio could help voters verify information and reduce confusion.

The media also has a critical role. Mainstream outlets must be more proactive in fact-checking, disseminating accurate information and identifying rumours, while avoiding sensational headlines and unverified reports. Above all, public awareness is indispensable. Developing habits of verification, refraining from sharing suspicious content and relying on official sources are small but powerful actions that can collectively counter rumours. No matter how strong state initiatives are, disinformation cannot be fully stopped without informed citizen participation.

The greatest strength of rumours lies in belief. When the line between truth and falsehood becomes blurred, people grow confused and distrustful, and even verified news can appear doubtful. This is the most dangerous success of rumours. As the election approaches, the surge of disinformation poses a serious threat not only to the electoral outcome but also to overall social stability.

In answer to the question, rumours can indeed have a major impact on elections. They can reduce voter turnout, incite violence and undermine the legitimacy of the process. In this situation, voters play the most crucial role. Verifying information before believing or acting on it may be the most effective way to counter rumours. Without responsible behaviour from the state, the Election Commission, political parties and social media platforms alike, winning this information war will be difficult. In the digital age, an informed voter remains the final safeguard of democracy.