Iran-Israel attacks: What dire situation awaits?

The Iran-Israel conflict for now appears to be confined to just the two countries. The United Nations and other nations continue to urge both sides to exercise restraint; but will they listen? And if not, what will happen? What will be the consequences if the conflict turns into a prolonged war?

We do not know what could happen. We can only anticipate the worst-case scenarios. Here are several possible indicators of the global repercussions that could result from an Iran-Israel war.

The United States could get involved
Although the United States has repeatedly denied involvement in the conflict, Iran firmly believes that the US has at least indirectly supported Israel’s recent attacks. It is from this belief that the US fears Iran may retaliate by attacking various American positions in the Middle East. The US fears that camps of its special forces in Iraq, bases in the Gulf region, and diplomatic missions could become Iranian targets.

Though Iran’s two main proxy forces, Hamas and Hezbollah, are currently somewhat weakened, the Iran-backed paramilitary groups in Iraq that support these two remain heavily armed and active. They too could attack US facilities, and in anticipation of such attacks, the US has already evacuated some personnel. The US has publicly warned that any attack would have dire consequences.

If an American citizen is killed in Tel Aviv or elsewhere, the situation could escalate dramatically. In such a case, someone like Donald Trump would not sit quietly. He could then be compelled to take military action. On the other hand, Netanyahu would welcome this. It has long been suggested that Netanyahu deliberately wants to draw the United States into the conflict, hoping Iran could then be defeated more easily.

Israel knows full well that it cannot destroy Iran’s most secure nuclear facilities. Only the United States has the kind of bomber aircraft and bunker-busting weapons necessary for that. Meanwhile, Trump has promised his supporters he would not start another endless war in the Middle East; but at the same time, a large segment of Republicans are pro-Israel. They believe now is the opportune moment to change Iran’s government. If the United States becomes directly involved in the war, the consequences could be catastrophic—this hardly needs to be stated.

Gulf countries could also get involved
If Iran is unable to inflict significant damage on Israel’s fortified military installations and other targets, it may instead strike weaker targets in the Gulf region—mainly Israel’s allies, who although not openly, have covertly supported Israel against Iran. If Iran appears to be losing, it may desperately attack Israel’s friendly states located nearby. The Gulf region is rich in energy resources. There were allegations that Iran attacked Saudi Arabia’s oil fields in 2019. Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked the UAE in 2022.

Iran has in recent times attempted to improve relations with some Gulf states. However, American air bases are located in most of these countries, and some have secretly helped Israel defend against Iranian missile attacks. If the Gulf region becomes a target of Iranian attacks, those countries might then appeal to the United States to deploy its fighter jets not just to defend Israel but also them.

What if Israel fails?
What if Israel’s attacks fail? The outside world still does not know how secure Iran’s nuclear facilities truly are. If Iran possesses 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium—enough to make about ten nuclear bombs—and those are not destroyed in Israeli attacks, then what? Iran will undoubtedly proceed with even greater caution and determination to build nuclear weapons.

It is presumed this uranium is hidden deep within underground bunkers. Israel may have assassinated one or two Iranian nuclear scientists; but no bomb has the capacity to destroy Iran’s knowledge and technological capabilities. And these Israeli attacks have surely convinced Iranian leaders that the only way to prevent future strikes is to develop nuclear weapons as quickly as possible.

Israel too must fear this. Therefore, their only option is to continue launching attacks until Iran is completely brought to its knees. This means a continuous cycle of attack and counterattack. Iran and Israel have already fallen into this trap. They will not easily escape from it. The inevitable result: prolonged conflict, prolonged war!

Global economic shock
It goes without saying that the longest-lasting and most severe impact of an Iran-Israel war would be on the global economy. The world is already in a dire economic crisis due to the Russia-Ukraine war. A prolonged Iran-Israel conflict would affect the Middle East as well as all of Asia and Europe. Oil prices are already rising. What if Iran tries to shut down the Strait of Hormuz? Then oil supply would decline even further.

And what if, on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen’s Houthi rebels begin attacking ships in the Red Sea again? The Houthis are one of Iran’s still-active allies. They are known for their unconventional warfare tactics and willingness to risk their lives to strike enemies. Many countries are already suffering from economic crises. If oil prices rise further, global inflation could spiral out of control. The world economy is already fragile under the strain of Trump’s trade wars.

It must not be forgotten that the biggest beneficiary of rising oil prices would be Russia. Higher oil prices would funnel billions more dollars into the Kremlin—funds that would be spent directly on continuing the war against Ukraine.

Could Iran’s government fall?
What if this conflict pushes Iran’s Islamic revolutionary government to the brink of collapse? Then, inevitably, there would be a long-term power vacuum in Iranian leadership. This might give rise to a new version of the country.

Netanyahu has claimed that his main goal is to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability. But in his statement yesterday, he made clear that his deeper intention is regime change. Addressing Iran’s “proud people,” he said his attack was paving their “path to liberation.” He claimed the assault would guide them out of an evil and oppressive regime.

For some, especially within the region and among Israelis, the fall of Iran’s government may be appealing. But the question is—what happens next? A civil war could erupt. If civil war breaks out in Iran, what form would it take? Many such questions are now emerging in people’s minds. Ultimately, much depends on which direction this war now takes. How and to what extent Iran retaliates remains to be seen. Will the United States restrain Israel—or provoke it further? The uncertain future of the Gulf region and the world hangs on many such questions.