Let ‘might is right’ policy end in upcoming national election

Let me begin with the words of the Chief Adviser of the interim government regarding a fair and neutral election. He said, “We want such an election that will satisfy the souls of the martyrs of the uprising.” According to him, this election will be so free, fair and neutral that it will remain memorable to the nation. He further said that the interim government is preparing for a free, fair, credible and inclusive general election to ensure justice, equality, freedom and dignity for the people, and for a smooth transition to democracy. Each of his statements contains an artistic rhythm that enchants listeners and increases the number of admirers, but does not inspire trust.

It is also the Chief Adviser’s statement that past elections were not accepted due to flaws, and such flawed elections created opportunities to monopolise power. But is he or his government neutral? He was not elected by the people’s vote; according to him, it was the anti-discrimination students who appointed him, and allegations are being made that the National Citizen Party (NCP), formed by those appointing students, is receiving patronage from the government.

Jamaat-e-Islami has raised questions over Dr Yunus’s or the interim government’s neutrality. Jamaat has alleged that the Chief Adviser showed special favour to one party through his meeting in London with the Acting Chairman of the BNP, and afterwards, from abroad, holding a joint press briefing and issuing a joint statement. They have also said that this undermined Dr Yunus’s neutrality. Jamaat-e-Islami’s allegations are not entirely baseless; after this London meeting, the importance of Jamaat and NCP to the interim government has decreased, while the BNP’s importance has increased. Because of the London meeting, the public has also realised that it is the BNP that is going to form the next government.

It seems that after the London meeting, visible discussions by the interim government are taking place with other political parties, but the decisive, unseen discussions are only with the BNP. To have the interim government’s executive orders passed in parliament, BNP’s cooperation is indispensable. It is still too early to say whether there will be an electoral alliance with the National Citizen Party, but the London meeting may have assured that in the post-election period, the NCP would get blessings from the ruling BNP.

Dr Muhammad Yunus has repeatedly said that the election will be inclusive, meaning all parties will participate. The army chief has also said the same. But the NCP has declared it will not tolerate the rehabilitation of the Awami League. NCP cannot be ignored, because they shed blood in the uprising and put Dr Yunus in power. But an inclusive election means participation of all parties. Although the Awami League’s activities are banned, the Chief Adviser Dr Muhammad Yunus has said this is “temporary”; yet, despite being “temporary”, the Awami League’s participation in the election is uncertain. Without external pressure, the possibility of lifting the “temporary” ban before the election is very low. Even if the ban is lifted, it seems unlikely the Awami League will participate in the election over the question of recognition of the interim government. If the election is not “inclusive” as per Dr Yunus or the army chief’s statement, at least 30–35 per cent of voters will be excluded, because in the last free and fair election held under the caretaker government in 2008, the Awami League received 48.13 per cent of the vote.

The two main parties in Bangladesh’s politics and elections are the Awami League and BNP. After its fall in the uprising, the Awami League is absent from the field. As a result, this time the election field is completely open for the BNP; with Jamaat-e-Islami as a goalkeeper opponent, they will not be able to stop BNP’s shots. The possibility of the Islamist parties uniting to contest the election is almost non-existent. Many Islamic scholars have even begun campaigning that Jamaat-e-Islami’s “Islam” is not the true Islam.

The National Citizen Party is new, and the interim government’s shortcomings in meeting the public’s mountain-high expectations have eroded public trust and reliance on the anti-discrimination students. With NCP activists also being arrested in major extortion cases, BNP’s nationwide extortion is becoming somewhat secondary. Disunity has already begun within the NCP like the Jatiya Party, with their own comrades accusing the NCP of “fraud”, and every day someone is announcing their severance from the NCP. If the government’s favour is withdrawn from them, their divisions and disunity may deepen further. Therefore, in the election field, NCP is no strong player against the BNP either.

However, widespread publicity against BNP activists and supporters’ uncontrolled terrorism and extortion will not stir voters much, as supporters generally do not take their party’s faults or crimes into account; still, BNP may lose some votes, but not enough to cause defeat. The Jatiya Party is shattered by internal feuds, yet its position in the Rangpur area has not been erased.

NCP will in no way want the Awami League to participate in the election, as they believe the Awami League’s return would threaten their existence. Within the BNP, too, there is hesitation over the Awami League’s participation in the election. On one hand, BNP would like the ailing Awami League to take part, as this would allow the victorious BNP to rule the country peacefully and without disturbance for five years; on the other hand, if they do not participate, as in the past, post-election rallies, meetings and movements by 35 per cent of the people against a one-sided election will continue, meaning that for the next term, that 35 per cent will do what BNP has done for the past 15 years. Despite such considerations, BNP remains firmly opposed to the Awami League’s participation, because their entry would create uncertainty in BNP’s assured victory and in their hope and possibility of winning all 300 seats.

For the BNP, starved of power for seventeen years, it will be difficult to contest the election in alliance, because in the absence of the Awami League, the opportunity for certain victory this time is one that no local BNP leader will want to lose. Therefore, even if they form an alliance with one or more parties, there is a likelihood of rebel candidates within BNP. Since victory is assured, there will be rebel candidates in quite a few constituencies even without an alliance.

The more internal disputes arise among BNP’s tough activists and supporters over candidate nominations, the more BNP will face problems. If Islamist parties unite to contest, there will be electoral competition. It would not be surprising if, in the middle of voting, some party boycotts the election in view of BNP’s monopoly on victory.

The public has yet to see any preparation to deliver the unprecedented, matchless, unique, rare and exceptional election promised by Dr Muhammad Yunus. It would be foolish to expect that the age-old culture of forcibly capturing ballot papers and polling stations will vanish in this election. The interim government’s success in stopping “mob terrorism” and extortion is zero. Across the country, under the label of the Awami League, people are being picked up and taken to the police station, slashed, beaten, garlanded with shoes—these are happening without the police’s knowledge, right in front of them.

The disappointing inaction of the law enforcement agencies over the past twelve months has left the public disheartened. Why is the police inactive? One of many reasons is that over the past twelve months, they have had to arrest the victims rather than the attackers. A second reason is that in the present situation, the police can no longer protect themselves, requiring the army’s protection. After the London meeting, it became as clear as daylight to the administration that the BNP is coming to power. With this good news, local administrative heads have already begun courting BNP’s probable candidates, calling them, exchanging pleasantries, showing respect when they visit the area, and giving attention to their supporters and activists. This customary behaviour of the administration will not change in the election either; as in the past, they will act in accordance with the wishes of the likely victorious BNP.

Caretaker or interim governments are not new; they have come before several times, but never before has there been such a weak, helpless, incapable and subordinate government as that of Dr Yunus. It will be difficult for such a weak government to conduct the national election fairly and peacefully. Dr Yunus’s over-reliance on political parties has muddled politics. Although the anti-discrimination students appointed him, now there are allegations that he has become a BNP-dependent Chief Adviser. Of course, he has no alternative to this. Now the election will be held exactly as the BNP wants. A change in BNP’s monopoly could still come if the influential army plays its proper role.

The election will be six months later, a long time. In this lengthy period, much can happen. But whatever happens, in six months the entrenched habits formed before the election will not change. In our country, those ruling parties that have stolen votes have later, in opposition, demanded free and fair elections. The habit of justifying one’s own wrongdoing by citing others’ wrongdoing is visible even under the interim government. However, if the striking force—the army—can control the troublemakers, then these absurd fears will be dispelled, the ‘might is right’ policy will end, and Dr Yunus’s image will be at least partially restored.

Zeauddin Ahmed: Former Executive Director, Bangladesh Bank, and Former Managing Director, Bangladesh Security Printing Press