Messi faces tough equation to beat Mbappe in Golden Boot race

Lionel Messi held the lead in the Golden Boot race due to having more assists than Kylian Mbappe, despite both being level on goals. However, Mbappe overtook Messi in the third-place play-off, where he scored a brace to bring his tally to 10 goals, leaving Messi behind with 8.

In the final against Spain, even if Messi scores two goals, it may not be enough to win the Golden Boot, as FIFA's tie-breaking rules would apply if they are level on goals. The first tiebreaker is assists, where Mbappe now has 4, level with Messi.

If both remain tied on goals and assists, the next tiebreaker is the fewest minutes played, where Mbappe also holds an advantage. Thus, unless Messi scores a hat-trick or nets two goals with an assist, Mbappe is likely to secure the Golden Boot.

What Messi needs to win the Golden Boot:

A hat-trick (3 goals) against Spain in the final, OR

2 goals with at least 1 assist