National election must not fall into trap of US geopolitical strategy

The main objective of the interim government is to hold a national election as soon as possible after completing the necessary reforms. The chief responsibility of the interim government is to ensure that the election gains unquestionable acceptance both nationally and internationally. The national elections held in 2014, 2018 and 2024 during the previous government did not gain any acceptance either at home or abroad. Voters could not exercise their right to vote. The public was extremely angry with the previous government over this. That is why they gave direct or indirect widespread support to the students’ movement. The 13th national election is scheduled to be held in the first half of February next year.

The head of the interim government, Dr Muhammad Yunus, has said that the next national election will be held by February and that it will be the fairest and most acceptable election in the history of Bangladesh. However, we must bear in mind that since the political change on 5 August last year, Bangladesh has fallen into the geopolitical strategy of the United States. Questions such as whether to provide Myanmar with a humanitarian corridor now have to be considered. Bangladesh has become entangled in the Indo-Pacific strategy of the United States. As a result, there are various complications surrounding the election. It appears that the country’s largest political party, the BNP, is also keeping this matter in mind.

At this moment, if the BNP is able to form a government through the national election, it will need the blessings of the United States to survive. Therefore, the BNP cannot ignore American demands either. For this reason, the BNP is unable to take any strong stance against the United States or the interim government. Who knows whether there is also a game of “give and take” here? The United States will always seek to keep the government of Bangladesh under pressure. Recently, the United States has imposed high tariffs on imports from various countries. This move contradicts the policies of the World Trade Organization (WTO), as the WTO’s principle is to gradually reduce tariffs on imported goods to open the door to free competition. But the United States, going against this principle, has imposed additional tariffs on imports from at least 100 countries.

Initially, after imposing higher tariffs, the United States suspended them for three months. During this period, many countries were able to negotiate bilaterally with the US authorities and bring down the increased tariffs on their exports. However, not all countries were treated equally. For example, a 46 percent additional tariff was initially imposed on Vietnamese exports, and 37 percent on Bangladeshi exports. Vietnam’s rate was eventually reduced by 26 percentage points to 20 percent. India’s tariff was reduced from 26 percent to 25 percent in the initial stage, but later a 25 percent punitive tariff was imposed on India. As a result, Indian exports must now face a 50 percent tariff.

Bangladesh’s extra tariff was first reduced from 37 percent to 35 percent. Later, through further negotiations, it was set at 20 percent. A trade adviser has said that discussions are ongoing and there is a possibility that the tariff could be brought down further to 15 percent. If that can be achieved, Bangladesh’s export earnings in the US market will certainly rise. Another piece of news has brought good tidings for Bangladesh’s export trade: in the export of T-shirts to the United States, Bangladesh has overtaken its competitor countries.

Before the counter-tariff was imposed, in the six months of January–June 2024, Bangladesh exported T-shirts worth 270 million US dollars to the US market. In the same period of 2025—despite complications over the increased tariffs—Bangladesh exported T-shirts worth 373.2 million US dollars to the United States. In the first six months of this year, the United States imported T-shirts worth a total of 3.52 billion US dollars from 117 countries worldwide. Among them, Bangladesh topped the list as the single largest supplier. From 1989 to 2024, Bangladesh had never once reached the top in T-shirt exports to the United States.

The US has faced criticism for imposing extra tariffs on exports from various countries. The country has brushed aside WTO rules and dismantled the global trading system built through the WTO. If the high tariff imposed on Bangladesh at the initial stage had not been reduced, Bangladeshi exports would have faced unfair competition in the US market. For the time being, that fear seems to have been averted. However, Bangladesh must increase productivity in its ready-made garment sector. At the same time, more attention must be paid to using domestically produced raw materials. The United States frequently adopts various strategies to establish control over countries, among which economic sanctions and tariff policies are key. Bangladesh used to enjoy quota facilities in the global garment export market. But with the introduction of the global free-market economy in 2005, the quota system was abolished.

After that, the United States gave Bangladesh limited duty-free export facilities under the GSP (Generalised System of Preferences). Later, citing violations of labour rights and other issues, the US suspended Bangladesh’s GSP facilities. The European Union, however, has been providing GSP facilities to Bangladesh since 1976. Next year (2026), when Bangladesh formally enters the list of developing countries, the EU will continue GSP facilities for another three years, until 2029. After that, the GSP will end. For Bangladesh’s extraordinary position in the international garment export market, the US quota facility and EU’s GSP have been the most important contributors. If the EU withdraws GSP facilities and the US continues imposing extra tariffs, Bangladesh’s garment exports will inevitably face a severe crisis in the international market.

The additional tariffs imposed by the United States may be a strategy to keep Bangladesh under pressure. Currently, Bangladesh ranks second in garment exports in the international market, while Vietnam is in third place. But the positions of Bangladesh and Vietnam are so close that Vietnam could easily overtake Bangladesh with just a small opportunity. Bangladesh’s share of the global garment market is 6.92 percent, while Vietnam’s share is 6.09 percent. Therefore, it can be said with certainty that Vietnam will overtake Bangladesh in global garment exports by taking advantage of US tariff policies.

Ready-made garments account for around 84 percent of Bangladesh’s total exports. If garment exports are disrupted, the entire export trade will collapse. Although a Bangladeshi delegation has held talks with the United States, there has been little agreement on reducing tariffs. Further discussions may take place, but there is doubt about how much benefit will come from them. It has been said that Bangladesh’s and America’s tariff policies are linked to mutual interests.

My question is, what exactly are these mutual interests? Tariff policies are related to the economic interests of both countries, but these economic interests may be used for political purposes. The economic dependence that Bangladesh has on the United States may be exploited by the latter for political gains. In that situation, Bangladesh will not be able to break free from the US sphere of influence even if it wishes to. The United States may use this influence in matters such as elections and humanitarian corridors. They may say: if you provide Myanmar with the humanitarian corridor as we demand, the election will be held on time. If you do not, the election will not be held.

From this perspective, I believe there is a kind of uncertainty over the upcoming national election. There is also suspicion over whether the United States has kept the higher tariffs on Bangladesh in place to achieve its political goals. There is enough reason to question whether the newly formed political parties and the interim government are also somehow connected with this US plan. The newly formed political party NCP has said that reforms must come first, and only then can the national election be held. They will not allow an election without reforms. The question is: is it possible to complete all reforms in one or two months? For this, a long time will be needed. Are we to wait forever for reforms, or will we assist in holding the election on schedule? An elected government can also carry out reforms.

Moreover, there are some reforms that require a parliament, that require an elected government. Since the interim government took charge, the law-and-order situation in the country has deteriorated. To restore law and order and normal conditions, the national election must be held urgently. If the election is delayed, the law-and-order situation may worsen further. The political parties will not take responsibility for the deterioration of law and order in the current situation, as they are not in power. It does not appear that the interim government will succeed in restoring order either. Therefore, power must be handed over quickly to an elected political government.

Mohammad Shah Alam: Politician and President of the Communist Party of Bangladesh
Transcribed by: MA Khalek