Oil prices rise again in global markets amid uncertainty over ceasefire

Crude oil prices have once again risen in global markets as prospects for an end to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and a potential agreement have weakened. Concerns over global supply have also grown due to disruptions in ship movements through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. As a result, Brent crude prices surpassed $91 per barrel on Tuesday, August 18.

On that day, Brent crude futures rose 27 cents or 0.3 percent to $91.14 per barrel. On Monday, Brent had also reached its highest level since late July. Meanwhile, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 42 cents to $85.04, after rising more than 1 percent to $85.37 earlier in the day.

According to market analysts, the lack of progress in talks between the US and Iran on a lasting ceasefire has raised concerns among investors over a supply crunch. Iran has said it would take a more aggressive military stance after talks stalled, while US President Donald Trump has indicated he is not interested in extending the current truce.

Adding to the market's anxiety is the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. According to a Reuters report, the passage of oil and other cargo ships through this key waterway has dropped significantly. While 31 cargo ships crossed the strait over one weekend, only five crossed last Saturday, and no ship movements were reported on Sunday.

Analysts fear that if the Middle East conflict prolongs and normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is not restored quickly, supply risks could escalate further. This could add an additional risk premium to crude prices, putting further upward pressure on prices. Alongside Hormuz, the situation in the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea is also creating fresh concerns in the market.

Diplomatic efforts have not completely ceased, however. Iran is reportedly continuing talks with Oman over the management of the Strait of Hormuz. However, no effective agreement has been reached so far. The future direction of the international oil market now largely depends on the course of the conflict, ceasefire negotiations and the restoration of normal shipping through the critical waterway.