Opta supercomputer predicts who will join Spain in the final

Spain marched into their second World Cup final in three tournaments after a commanding 2-0 win over France in Dallas on Wenesday (July 15), and Opta's supercomputer now believes Thomas Tuchel's England, not Lionel Messi's Argentina, will join them on the biggest stage.

Luis de la Fuente's side eliminated the tournament's pre-semi-final favourites in ruthless fashion, with the win setting up a meeting with the winner of Thursday's second semi-final between England and Argentina at Atlanta Stadium, kicking off at 1am Bangladesh time.

Ahead of that game, Opta's model — built on 25,000 simulations — gives England a 52.53 percent chance of beating Argentina, continuing the supercomputer's habit of being upended by results on the pitch after it had earlier installed France as clear favourites before their exit.

With Spain already through, the algorithm has shifted its overall pick for the tournament. Spain are now rated as favourites to win the World Cup regardless of who they face in the final, with a 56.15 percent chance of glory. Their solitary previous title came in 2010.

That leaves defending champions Argentina, who beat France's conquerors to become the last side to reach the semi-finals, fighting to avoid a lopsided finish to their title defence. England are rated second favourites overall to win the tournament, with Argentina's chances put at 20.47 percent.

Other models have produced closely aligned numbers. Opta Analyst's own separate breakdown, factoring in extra time and penalties, gives England a 51.9 percent chance of advancing to the final compared with Argentina's 48.1 percent, with the sides considered close to inseparable heading into kickoff.

Should the Argentina-England semi-final go the distance, the model still leans slightly towards the European side inside normal time, with a draw considered nearly as likely as an outright England win in 90 minutes.

The winner advances to the July 19 final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, where Spain await a shot at a second world title, this time without needing to navigate the two-time reigning champions they have just eliminated.