Supercomputer predicts who will lift the FIFA World Cup 2026

Supercomputer predicts who will lift the FIFA World Cup 2026

With the group stage complete, the 2026 FIFA World Cup has moved into the knockout rounds, with 32 teams remaining from the original 48. The question on everyone's mind is: who will lift the trophy?

Sports analytics firm Opta Analyst has run its supercomputer predictions. According to the latest forecast, Argentina and France could meet again in the final on July 19.

Interestingly, Opta's first knockout prediction has already come true — the supercomputer favoured Canada against South Africa, and that result held. This has brought renewed attention to the remaining forecasts.

According to Opta, defending champions Argentina are in the most favourable position. They have an 89.2 per cent chance of beating Cape Verde in the last 32, the highest among all teams. Their chances of reaching the quarter-finals are 70.5 per cent, the semi-finals 49.6 per cent and the final 30 per cent — all higher than any other team.

However, while Argentina lead in reaching the final, France are slightly ahead in winning the trophy. Opta gives Didier Deschamps' side an 18.7 per cent chance of winning the World Cup, the highest in the tournament. They have an 81.5 per cent chance of beating Sweden in the last 32, a 58.3 per cent chance of reaching the quarter-finals and a 42.7 per cent chance of making the semi-finals.

Spain are third with a 13.5 per cent chance, followed by England (9.7 per cent), Brazil (6.5 per cent), the Netherlands (5.1 per cent), Portugal (4.7 per cent) and hosts Germany (4.4 per cent).

Colombia have a 3.2 per cent chance, Norway 3 per cent, the United States 2.5 per cent and Switzerland 2.2 per cent. Mexico, another host, have a 1.8 per cent chance, while Morocco and Belgium are both at 1.6 per cent. Japan, who face Brazil in the last 32, have just a 1 per cent chance.

However, statistics aside, the World Cup knockout stage is always full of surprises. One mistake, one moment or one goal can change everything. Ultimately, it will be the 90 minutes on the pitch, not the supercomputer, that decides who lifts the trophy.