Truth and falsehood of national election surveys

In the upcoming national election, 12 per cent of people will vote for the BNP. Jamaat will get 10.40 per cent and the National Citizen Party (NCP) will get 2.80 per cent. If the Awami League is able to contest the polls, 7.30 per cent of people will vote for them. Besides, the Jatiya Party will get 0.30 per cent and other Islamic parties 0.70 per cent of the vote. This picture has emerged in a recent survey by the Brac Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD). It reflects the opinions of 5,489 people from different classes and professions in rural and urban areas.

Earlier in July, a survey by the private research organisation SANEM said young people believed that in the 13th national election the BNP would get 38.76 per cent of the vote. In that survey, Jamaat came second, with 21.45 per cent. Other religious parties would get 4.59 per cent, the NCP 15.84 per cent, the Jatiya Party 3.77 per cent and other parties 0.57 per cent. The SANEM survey also revealed that if allowed to take part in the election, the Awami League would get 15.02 per cent of the vote. That survey covered all divisions of the country and included 2,000 people aged between 15 and 35.

According to the Election Commission, at present there are 127.8 million voters in the country. Informally, the total population is around 200 million. The question is: can a survey of between 2,000 and 5,000 people reflect the views of 127.8 million voters and 200 million people? Secondly, how much do surveys really reflect reality?

It is said there are three types of lies: 1. lies, 2. damn lies, 3. surveys. There are reasons behind the development of such jokes or negative perceptions about surveys. Who is conducting the survey, on whom, with what purpose, and what do they want to highlight or present to people—these are not always clear at first glance. Particularly before a national election, many institutions conduct surveys to show the level of support and popularity of rival parties. Various parties also commission surveys to inflate their popularity. In other words, many surveys are carried out with predetermined results.

Before the 2018 national election, the Awami League cited a survey by the Research and Development Centre (RDC) which claimed they would win between 168 and 220 seats. In that disputed election, the Awami League won 234 seats, while their main rival BNP won only nine. However, there are questions about what the gap between the two major parties would have been in a free, fair, acceptable and credible election, and who would have formed the government. It is hardly credible that a party like the BNP would win just nine seats. Therefore, the bigger question is: which institution conducts a survey to serve whose purpose?

In June, NCP’s Chief Coordinator Nasiruddin Patwary claimed that given the BNP’s current situation, they would not win more than 50 to 100 seats. Around the same time, he also said that if the proposals of the National Consensus Commission and Reform Commission were adopted, and if the number of parliamentary seats was increased to 400, then the NCP would win 300 seats and form the government. On what basis he made this claim, only he knows. But he did not cite any survey, nor is it known that the NCP itself carried out one. Yet while a top NCP leader claims they would win 300 seats, the recent survey suggests only 2.80 per cent of people would vote for them. In contrast, SANEM’s July survey said 15.84 per cent of young people would vote for the NCP. The numbers differ greatly between the two surveys. Hence it is important to understand which institution conducts a survey to serve which agenda.

BIGD’s latest survey shows that in the next national election 12 per cent will vote for the BNP and 10.40 per cent for Jamaat. Considering Bangladesh’s political culture, past experience, party bases and popularity, how credible is it that the gap between BNP and Jamaat is just one and a half per cent? Some people wonder if this survey was conducted simply to establish the narrative that BNP and Jamaat are close in voter support.

The survey says that if the Awami League is able to contest, 7.30 per cent will vote for them. Even leaving aside the past three disputed elections, in earlier, relatively fair elections the Awami League’s vote share was above 30 per cent. Whether their support has actually declined after 15 years in power and due to various actions is not certain.

Since before the formation of NCP, led by the young people at the forefront of the July uprising, there has been debate and discussion about them. Many believe a large number of young people will vote for NCP. If that is so, how could their support be less than three per cent? Moreover, there is doubt about whether the NCP will even take part in the election scheduled for February. Recently at the National Youth Conference in Dhaka’s Farmgate, NCP’s Chief Coordinator Nasiruddin Patwary said: “The election date has been announced as February; the election will not be in February.” He explained: “If the election is held in February, the government must return the bodies of my brothers who were martyred and gave their blood for reforms, back to their graves.”

In the BIGD survey, 48.50 per cent of respondents said they had not yet decided whom they would vote for. The question is, why have this 48 per cent not decided, or why do they not want to express an opinion? Are they waiting to sense the election atmosphere, or are they planning to cast a ‘no’ vote? However, the system of bringing back the ‘no’ vote, as the Election Commission is currently saying, will not apply to all constituencies. It will only apply where there is a single candidate. Thus, not all voters will even be able to cast a ‘no’ vote. Unless the Election Commission restores the ‘no’ vote as in the 2008 election, this 48 per cent will not be able to do so even if they want to.

An important point of this survey is that 51 per cent of people want elections only after ‘proper’ reforms. The question is, what is meant by proper reforms, and what changes and achievements will be considered as such? A political activist, a professional, a day labourer or a housewife may not all define reforms in the same way. And if reforms are meant to be something major, can they be achieved before February? If not, how will elections be held then? When 51 per cent say they want elections only after proper reforms, does this survey aim to send the message that most people want the interim government to stay longer?

The bottom line is that survey results are not always true. They may differ widely from reality. The only way to verify which party gets how many votes or how popular they are is through a free, fair, acceptable and credible election. Popularity can never be tested through disputed, questionable and stage-managed polls. Therefore, whether the national election is in February or earlier or later, people’s expectation is that it must not be like the last three elections.

Only then will it be seen how much support BNP, Jamaat, NCP or other parties actually have. And if the ousted Awami League is able to take part, then it will also be seen what public support it retains after being removed by an uprising. In short, whatever survey results may say, the true reflection of public opinion is only possible through a free, fair, acceptable and credible election. The expectation is that the upcoming election will reflect public opinion.

Amin Al Rashid: Journalist and writer