Turkey will not launch direct attacks against Houthis in support of Saudi Arabia

Turkey has planned to provide assistance to increase Saudi Arabia’s defense capability in the face of new advances by Houthi rebels in Yemen. However, this assistance will be limited to joint planning, military training and intelligence exchange under the Mecca Agreement signed in August. Ankara will not get involved in direct military fighting in the Yemen conflict.

The Mecca Agreement formed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan states that an armed attack on any one country will be considered an attack on all. Yet Turkey is emphasizing the strengthening of deterrence capability and mutual cooperation rather than direct military intervention. An unnamed Turkish official said Ankara is focusing on establishing a practical headquarters of the agreement in Saudi Arabia and building joint planning and training systems, reports Al-Monitor.

Houthi rebels recently took control of the strategic city of Mocha and the Hanish and Perim islands in the Red Sea, further increasing their influence over the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Nearly 12 per cent of global trade passes through this strait. Although Turkey strongly condemned these activities of the Houthis, it has given no indication of joining direct fighting against them.

Gokhan Ereli, assistant professor of political science and international relations at Ibn Haldun University, said the Houthis’ control is probably not permanent and their occupation, like in other areas of Yemen, remains fragile. After fighting the Houthis for a long time, Saudi Arabia has also realised that this crisis cannot be resolved through military means alone. For this reason a process of dialogue with the Houthis has been continuing since October 2023.

Ereli said Saudi Arabia is trying to take collective and international steps against the Houthi threat so that it does not have to face the situation alone. Turkey’s role through the Mecca Agreement is part of this joint effort.

Another Turkish national security official, however, ruled out the possibility of sending troops directly to Yemen as was done in Syria. He said, “This is not Syria. Syria was our land border and logistics were easy there.”

The official further said Turkey does not want to send a wrong message to Iran by attacking Tehran’s strongest proxy force amid the ongoing crisis between the United States and Iran.

Instead, Ankara has stated it will join the Red Sea naval task force announced by Saudi Arabia in August. Turkish warships will be sent there but there is no possibility of launching attacks on the Houthis, the official said. He added that as long as Turkish civilian or military ships or cargo ships bound for Turkey are not attacked, Ankara has no intention of taking any aggressive step.

Nadwa Al-Dawsari, non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute, believes the only way to counter the Houthi threat is to assist Yemen’s government forces in recovering territory. However, this could also create the risk of new Houthi attacks on Saudi air defence as well as on its own infrastructure.

At present this trilateral agreement has not been approved by the Turkish parliament. Like Pakistan, Turkey has taken the position of not getting involved in direct war despite the mutual defence clause of the agreement, raising questions about the effectiveness and practical value of the Mecca Agreement.