What message China received from Nepal protests

Nepal, the Himalayan daughter, is now effectively in turmoil. The country has no functioning government. The coalition government led by Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli collapsed after only 48 hours of protest. In July 2024, KP Sharma Oli took oath as Prime Minister for the fourth time. His party, UML (Unified Marxist-Leninist), formed a government in alliance with the Nepali Congress.

In Nepal’s 275-member parliament, the Nepali Congress holds 88 seats, Oli’s UML holds 76, and Prachanda’s Maoist Centre holds 32. Out of 275 seats, 165 are directly elected, while the remaining 110 are filled through proportional representation. Parliament is elected for five years. The main political party, the Nepali Congress, has historically had close ties with New Delhi.

On the other hand, Prime Minister Oli’s UML has close ties with Beijing. Earlier, Maoist guerrilla leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda, who is also close to China, was Prime Minister three times. This means Nepal has been governed at different times either by parties aligned with New Delhi or with Beijing. Among them, Nepali Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba has served as Prime Minister five times. Since the abolition of monarchy in 2008, Nepal has returned to democracy, but no government has ever completed a full five-year term.

In 2018, the Communist Party split into two factions: UML under Oli and the Maoist Centre under Prachanda. Even after the split, the two Communist leaders shared the post of Prime Minister, each serving two and a half years. Following the protests on Monday and Tuesday, Prime Minister Oli resigned. President Ram Chandra Paudel accepted his resignation and called on the people for a peaceful resolution. In effect, state power is now in the hands of Army Chief Ashok Raj Sigdel.

Why did Nepal’s political situation suddenly become so heated? Analysts point to several reasons for the sudden fall of the government:

1. Although youth anger over the shutdown of 26 social media platforms is seen as the main trigger, the deeper issue is frustration with corruption and ageing leaders of the major parties.

2. Local journalists say geopolitical elements were also involved in the way the protest spread nationwide within 48 hours.

3. India and China have not issued formal reactions, but seven embassies led by the United States released a statement. The tone of that statement reflected sympathy for the protesters’ demands. Thus, internationally, the fall of Oli’s government is being viewed as a blow to China.

4. Protesters justified their movement morally and legally by citing Article 17 of Nepal’s Constitution, which guarantees freedom of expression. However, the government claimed it could control such expression in the interest of public order, and that was the basis for its move against social media.

5. The government had also started drafting a law giving intelligence agencies the right to tap telephones, which angered Nepal’s urban educated classes.

5. Social media in Nepal is a major platform for political debate. Initially, opposition activists were not organisers of the protest, nor were they present in large numbers in rallies. But as the government crackdown was seen as a conspiracy to silence criticism of corruption, anti-government voices across Nepal gradually joined in.

7. Protesters were also divided along class lines. Lower-income young people who used social media for business suffered direct losses when it was shut down. Upper-class youth, for whom social media had become part of daily culture, also opposed the shutdown. The decision even disrupted study habits.

The protest first began with school students. Gradually, it spread to older youths. After bloodshed, it transformed into a broader anti-government protest. By the second day, it had spread uncontrollably like wildfire across Nepal.

Another feature of this youth movement was that it sent a clear warning to ageing leaders. These leaders enrich themselves through corruption, while their children enjoy privileges abroad. The “Gen Z” youths sent a strong message against such “nepo kids”, believing that their luxury stems from corruption.

As with other Gen Z movements worldwide, Nepal’s protests drew open support from cultural icons. Stars often side with youth for professional reasons, while youths gain motivation from such support. The cultural sector participated directly in this movement.

Also, in line with global Gen Z trends, Nepal’s protesters soon turned aggressive, carrying out widespread vandalism and arson. This quickly brought them into clashes with security forces. Twenty-two people were killed and countless others injured. Within 48 hours, Oli was forced to resign.

The political culture of impunity in Nepal has shattered public trust. The economy has taken a severe hit. Nepalis pay taxes but see no improvement in roads, hospitals or schools. Ministers only fill their own pockets. This fuelled the protesters’ anger.

Last month, Nepal’s Supreme Court ruled that the government could require social media companies to register under national law and appoint local representatives. The government argued that unregulated foreign companies were siphoning off large sums without paying taxes. Registration, it said, would boost foreign revenue. Given a week’s deadline, 26 platforms failed to comply, and the government shut them down on Thursday.

Multinational companies play an active role in global politics. In Nepal, such companies have trapped poor farmers while exploiting natural resources. These companies, by keeping their stakeholders satisfied, devised new ways to exploit Nepal. Multinationals also played an active role in Oli’s downfall.

During the abolition of monarchy in 2006, leaders like Prachanda and Baburam Bhattarai showed interest in UN involvement, leading to the start of the United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) in January 2007. Through its DDR (Disarmament, Demobilisation, Reintegration) programme, the UN effectively dismantled the Maoists’ core strength.

Under the guise of NGOs, the UN then absorbed the grassroots institutions the Maoists had built in villages. An NGO called Upliftment Bank Ltd, funded by the Asian Development Bank, launched destructive activities in rural Nepal. The Centre for Micro-Finance in Nepal also weakened rural services through microcredit. Educated Maoists lured into NGO jobs abandoned their organisations. This allowed NGOs, the UN, Norway, France, the US and Western multinationals to take over.

Though leftist parties formed governments, rural Nepal effectively fell under Indo-US influence and multinational control. With lofty rhetoric, the UN posed as benevolent while dismantling the Maoist grassroots base.

Once Nepal had governments visibly aligned with India or China. But after the monarchy’s fall, the UN, US and their Western allies, under the banner of development, destroyed Nepal’s grassroots strength through NGOs and multinationals. This fractured society. These forces, together with multinationals, toppled Oli’s weak coalition within 48 hours.

Kalapani, a region now under Indian control, lies at Nepal’s border with China. Both India and China want to set up a border market at nearby Lipulekh. Nepalis, however, believe the region historically belonged to them. Since 2019, India has shown it in its maps, with China tacitly accepting it. Ordinary Nepalis want their government to fight strongly for Kalapani.

Many influential civil society members and affluent Gen Z youths eager to restore monarchy also encouraged the protests. Notable among them were businessman Durga Prasai and Hirendra Shah, grandson of former King Gyanendra. Protesters reportedly asked them not to come out openly, but analysts suspect they were involved in the second day’s violence.

After Oli’s fall, Nepal’s administrative structure has not completely collapsed, but the country now faces a deep political crisis. The rise of Gen Z as a decisive force in politics marks a new phase. It is likely to influence future electoral politics. Analysts say it is hard to predict when the crisis will end.

Finally, note the date of Oli’s fall—9 September, the death anniversary of Mao Zedong. That the fall of a China-backed government happened on this date seems not just a coincidence but part of a well-planned effort by the US and its Western allies to send a clear message to China.

Reza Ghatak: Fiction writer and filmmaker