Which party will get the swing votes

Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami’s student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir, has won a landslide victory in the Dhaka University Central Students’ Union (DUCSU) election. For the first time, Shibir got the chance to do politics openly at Dhaka University, and with that chance, it crushed all the other student organisations in the election. The main rival was the BNP’s student wing, Chhatra Dal. But it would not be right to call Chhatra Dal a rival; they were sure of winning, just as the Awami League had expected in the 1991 general election.

Social media is flooded with analysis of why they lost. The interesting point is that Shibir, whose politics was banned at Dhaka University for years, has staged a revolution in the election. It seems the ban has backfired. This unwritten ban was imposed jointly by Chhatra League and Chhatra Dal. Shibir did not go into conflict; their leaders worked inside Chhatra League, while their workers were in Chhatra Dal—similar to how the banned communists had worked under the cover of the National Awami Party (NAP) in Pakistan times. Now many are saying that all the schemes to rot Chhatra League from within were played by Shibir leaders hiding there; but Shibir itself has no blame in that, it is their Chanakya-like political strategy that has won.

Jamaat-e-Islami does not want the national election too soon, perhaps because the base for victory is not yet ready. They wanted local government elections before the national election, but BNP did not agree. BNP did not fall into this trap of Jamaat and NCP to delay elections. Since in local government elections the image of political parties does not dominate exclusively, voting follows many equations. Jamaat believes they would do well if local polls came first. Because news of BNP’s involvement in extortion and terrorism through its various wings has spread, BNP’s image has been badly damaged.

Jamaat’s main rival in elections is BNP; Jamaat knows that with its unrivalled campaign strategy, BNP’s popularity will slowly decline. BNP is failing to control its activists. Many involved in extortion and terrorism have been expelled from the BNP and its affiliates, but not arrested. Arrest is the government’s job. For not arresting the expelled, BNP has quietly blamed the government, but the government has stayed indifferent. Whether by choice or not, this indifference in suppressing extortion and terrorism has turned into a liability for BNP.

If the next government is BNP’s, there is reason for fear. In DUCSU, the Shibir candidate won the vice-president post by nearly nine thousand votes. Shibir also won in Jahangirnagar University’s student union election. In other public universities too, Shibir will do well, since news is spreading that they have already established dominance in BUET. Shibir already had exclusive influence at Chattogram and Rajshahi universities. If Shibir’s legal dominance spreads across most universities, even Gen-Z’s future movements may come under their grip. So even if Jamaat does not win the coming general election, it has gained the power to put pressure on the next government.

But Shibir and Jamaat’s rising strength will not be the only factor driving future movements. There are also other levers of pressure. Gen-Z youths outside Shibir are now in the alleyways. This may not bode well for Bangladesh’s future. In the days ahead, countless youths will be ready to take to the streets at the first whistle.

In the July uprising against the Awami League government, even schoolchildren and street children took part. The deprived always side against the establishment, which is why the street children joined spontaneously. Novelist Manik Bandopadhyay, once asked by a friend from afar while marching in Kolkata, “Manik, whose procession is this?” replied, “That I don’t know.” Processions, meetings, movements, uprisings always attract the unemployed; youths are driven by the instincts of excitement and restlessness. In the July uprising, I saw illiterate slum boys hanging fake ID cards around their necks, just like school, college and university students. They rush to douse fires, and just as quickly rush to light them. In such a situation, a new government will be formed in Bangladesh. But if its mindset is not different, if it remains conventional, history is bound to repeat itself.

Will law enforcement agencies again become aggressive under the new government? Of course, they will, and must. Because without force, people in this country do not respect the law. In a country where even dustbins on footpaths must be chained up, law enforcers cannot just sit idle. Even under the interim government, students had to be beaten with batons inside the Secretariat.

On the other hand, since mobs have no balance of passion and reason, a culture of fearing mobs has begun. Mobs have turned against governments in the past, and will again in the future. Fearing loss of public support, even the interim government dares not reform. The Chief Adviser had been delighted on reading the Women’s Rights Reform Commission report, but fell completely silent after hearing the threats of the “Touhidi” crowd. The environment adviser did not dare to ban polythene bag production. The attempt to move Rohingyas through the corridor failed. The dream of keeping the port functional by handing terminal management to foreigners has also evaporated. This “sigh of inability” is getting longer and heavier, and Dr Muhammad Yunus too is becoming disheartened.

Why so much fear of the opposition? Why so much importance? Because governments are formed with only 30 or 35 per cent of the vote, while the opposition side holds 70 or 65 per cent. An analysis of caretaker-government elections makes this clear. In 1991, BNP won 140 seats with 30.80 per cent of the vote, while Awami League with 30.01 per cent got only 88 seats. In 1996, Awami League got 37.40 per cent, BNP 33.60 per cent. In 2001, BNP with 40.97 per cent secured 193 seats, while Awami League with 40.13 per cent won just 66. In 2008, Awami League got 230 seats with 49 per cent, while BNP with 33.20 per cent won only 30 seats.

Notably, there is no consistency between votes and seats, and no ruling party has ever won 50 per cent of the vote. If the constitution says people are the source of all power, then only 30 per cent hold that power, while 70 per cent of voters have no representative in parliament or government. How then can such a parliament or government be called representative? That is why a 30 per cent government is always under pressure, and resorts to repression to hold on to power.

To tackle this problem, in some countries seats are distributed in proportion to votes received by parties, or under a PR system. By this calculation, in 1991, BNP with 30.81 per cent should have got 92 seats, but got 140; Awami League with 30.01 per cent should have got 90, but got 88. Jamaat with 12.13 per cent and Jatiya Party with 11.92 per cent should have had 36 each, but Jamaat got only 18 and Jatiya Party 35. By the same reckoning, Bangladesh Krishak Sramik Awami League should have got 5, Zaker Party 4, Communist Party of Bangladesh 4, JASAD (Rob), Islami Oikya Jote, and National Awami Party (Muzaffar) 2 each, and JASAD (Inu), Ganatantri Party, National Democratic Party and a few others 1 each.

PR has its problems. Under PR, it would be difficult for any single party to form government. But however difficult, it must be admitted that PR is the only truly representative system. Under PR, almost all participating parties stand a chance of parliamentary representation. With Awami League absent from the coming election, the contest will be between BNP and Jamaat. Yet BNP’s chances of winning are higher.

In DUCSU, while Shibir’s candidate beat Chhatra Dal’s by nine thousand votes for vice-president, Shibir’s panel votes were only four thousand; the remaining ten thousand were swing votes. With Awami League absent from the election field, swing votes will be crucial in the general election too. Which party’s box these swing votes will fall into is not yet certain. Jamaat knows this too, and that is why they still support a PR election. Their leaders have already said that without PR, Jamaat may not join the election at all. BNP, confident of victory, is strongly opposed to PR.

Shibir’s rise in various public university elections has boosted Jamaat’s confidence and created some unease within BNP. After the university polls, the possibility of BNP and Jamaat contesting together has also arisen. Whether the DUCSU and JUCSU elections have raised the value of Awami League’s voters in the general election is unclear. It is natural that election-focused parties will try to capture the swing voters. But if BNP’s helplessness in boycotting JUCSU is reflected in the general election, it would be a humiliating shame for the nation. Hence it is better to support PR—everyone’s face will be saved.

Zeauddin Ahmed: Former Executive Director, Bangladesh Bank