Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?

The tenure of current UN Secretary-General António Guterres is coming to an end. The Portuguese national will step down on December 31, and the new Secretary-General will take over on January 1.

Traditionally, the UN Secretary-General serves a maximum of two five-year terms, totaling 10 years. Speculation has already begun over who will succeed Guterres.

Trump's 'surprising' proposal
Recently, the US media New York Post reported that President Donald Trump would like to see FIFA President Gianni Infantino in the top UN post. Sources said Trump's close relationship with Infantino inspired this idea. Trump has praised Infantino for the successful conclusion of this year's World Cup, saying he has a special ability to bring people together. FIFA and the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The reality of the selection process
Despite Infantino's name appearing in international media, the reality of the UN Secretary-General selection process is quite different. It is unclear whether Infantino will be considered. If the 15-member Security Council approves, the matter will go to the General Assembly. The five permanent members also have veto power over any nomination.

The candidates
Six people have already expressed interest in succeeding Guterres. They are:

Michelle Bachelet (Chile): Former two-term President of Chile and former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. She is campaigning for a more active UN role in women's rights, human rights and crisis prevention.

María Fernanda Espinosa (Ecuador): Former Foreign and Defence Minister, and President of the UN General Assembly (2018-19). She emphasises more active, effective and forward-looking UN leadership.

Rafael Grossi (Argentina): Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). He is considered a frontrunner due to his active role in international crises.

Rebeca Grynspan (Costa Rica): Economist and current Secretary-General of UNCTAD. She focuses on gender equality, sustainable development and UN reform.

Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett (Guyana): Former Foreign Minister and current Permanent Representative to the UN. She has significant diplomatic experience and support.

Macky Sall (Senegal): Former President of Senegal. He highlights his leadership experience and stresses the need for UN Security Council reform.

Candidate dialogue and selection process
The candidates will participate in an open dialogue at the UN General Assembly on Thursday, starting at 3am Bangladesh time on Friday. Each candidate will answer questions for 90 minutes.

The formal selection process begins a week later. On July 30, the 15 Security Council members will vote in a closed ballot, with rounds continuing until a candidate gets at least nine votes and no veto from any permanent member. The chosen candidate will then be sent to the General Assembly for formal appointment. The new Secretary-General will take office on January 1, 2027.

Who is ahead?
Analysts say Rafael Grossi is slightly ahead, though not by a clear margin. Grynspan or Rodrigues-Birkett could also win. Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group said Grossi is the most frequently mentioned candidate, but others have significant support too. A "dark horse" candidate could also emerge. There are calls for a woman to be appointed for the first time. Infantino is not yet a formal candidate, and it remains unclear whether he will be considered.