Why China and India choosing friendship over hostility

At the outset, it is relevant to mention a brief history of how India’s relationship with the United States turned from friendship to hostility, and how India is now having to consider China for a safe, close friendship.

In 1992, the United States presidential election was approaching. On the other hand, the Soviet Union had informally collapsed. The sitting US president was George W Bush of the Republican Party, whom we call Senior Bush. At that time, the Soviet Union had become a major issue in the US electoral climate. In June, ahead of the election, Russian President Boris Yeltsin travelled to the United States to attend a summit with President Bush. In American cities, processions chanted, “Boris! Boris!” In the election, Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton was the Democratic Party candidate. He had already called for greater US assistance to Russia. Beyond politics, Clinton had personally begun to like Yeltsin. He hoped that President Yeltsin would meet him. It was a long-standing tradition that when a head of state or government visited the United States, they met both candidates. But in this case, there was almost an exception. Yeltsin was not interested in meeting Clinton because Russian embassy officials had persuaded him that it would be better to meet independent presidential candidate and wealthy businessman Ross Perot instead of Clinton. But Clinton was persistent. He felt it was essential to meet Yeltsin, and a 30-minute meeting was arranged at Blair House. During the meeting, Boris was cordial, but Clinton realised that he wanted Senior Bush to be re-elected. In that election, Bush was defeated and Clinton won. Afterwards, Boris Yeltsin duly called Bill Clinton to congratulate him and requested full support for Russia. Clinton not only agreed, he instructed his foreign policy team to provide Russia with even greater assistance.

Similarly, in September 2019, one year before the election, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the United States. Nearly 70 percent of Indian-origin voters had supported Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election. As a result, Modi’s visit in 2019 seemed extremely important to President Trump. Modi had been supporting this impulsive president since his election. He assumed Trump would be re-elected. By then, their personal relationship had reached the level of close friends. During the visit, a non-profit organisation called the Texas India Forum held a grand event in Houston named “Howdy Modi.” In fact, the event was a joint initiative of Trump and Modi. Trump said in his speech that Modi had invited him to the event. In short, in front of 50,000 people in a huge stadium, Modi praised Trump and expressed support for him. Trump, saying “I love India,” showered Modi with praise. Addressing Indian-Americans, Trump said, “We are proud to have you.” From then on, Trump referred to Narendra Modi as “my friend.”

Five months later, in February 2020, Trump visited India and was welcomed at the Narendra Modi Stadium in Gujarat. About 125,000 people attended the “Namaste Trump” event. But in that year’s election, Trump lost to Democratic candidate Joe Biden. Although Biden observed everything, for various reasons he did not consider taking any harsh measures against India. He maintained normal and ongoing relations.

But all these calculations changed with the 2024 election. Before the election, India’s prime minister visited the United States to attend the Quad summit. Even before his visit, Republican presidential candidate Trump said at an event in Michigan, “Next week Modi is coming to see me. He’s fantastic.” But Modi did not meet Trump. Instead, he took a diamond ring worth $20,000 for Biden’s wife. It is said that the Indian embassy had given Modi the impression that this time Trump would lose the election and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris would be elected.

This assumption proved wrong, and Trump was elected president again. Then began Trump’s revenge on India, which has now taken a naked form. On the issue of tariffs, India has been made one of the main targets, with rates raised to 50 percent. In addition, in the four-day India–Pakistan war last May, the role of the United States, the release of funds in favour of Pakistan by the US and IMF during the war, and inviting Pakistan’s Field Marshal General Asim Munir to a dinner for a one-hour closed-door meeting afterwards — all this has not only deeply disappointed India but has also shocked the global community, even many responsible people in Washington. In the past 25 years, no US government has behaved so antagonistically towards India in its foreign policy. It is now clear that under Trump, the return of US–India relations to normal friendship is almost impossible. The biggest accusation by the United States and its European followers against India is that it buys fuel from Russia despite sanctions! If India buys, it is wrong, but if Europe buys, it is not. TotalEnergies’ Supply of Energy-2, which supplies gas, gets it from Novatek. Without this Russian energy supply, much of Europe would be plunged into darkness.

India has now realised this unexpected jolt. This realisation was necessary. It seems that, understanding the situation, India has made a final decision. Last week, India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval visited Moscow and held very cordial discussions with Russia’s Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu and later with President Putin, particularly on bilateral relations. On August 8, Narendra Modi telephoned Putin and invited him to visit India. Putin will visit India towards the end of this year.

Meanwhile, India has taken an initiative to establish normal relations with China. Although there are several major disputes between the two neighbours which cannot be resolved overnight, this is a new addition to India’s foreign policy. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is going to China on August 31 to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting. China has already welcomed his visit. Pakistan remains a special thorn in China–India relations. Pakistan, a country of perpetual hostility, has a close relationship with China. China has, to a large extent, acted as Pakistan’s guardian. But in that case, India could also establish normal relations with Pakistan. In the past, on several occasions, the two countries had come close to normalising relations. But the Pakistan Army blocked the way. Whenever Indian and Pakistani political leaders came close, the Pakistan Army started a border war with India. The Kargil War and the Uri attack are proof of this. Now, if China truly wishes to build good relations with India, this problem could be resolved, because without China’s say, not only Pakistan’s government but also its army cannot move. Moreover, China also wants to build normal relations with India. Their statements make that clear. On the Taiwan issue, in the dangerous situation prevailing between China and the United States and its allied countries, India is an important factor.

For the time being, India is under economic pressure. But now India must decide — Quad or BRICS. Quad is a maritime partnership organisation between Australia, Japan, the United States and India. It was created primarily against China. BRICS, on the other hand, is an organisation of five countries — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Its main objective is economic cooperation among the Global South. The United States sees it as an organisation taking an economic stance against it. As a member of BRICS, India has been hit with an additional 10 per cent tariff as a penalty by the United States. Now, which way will India go? The prime minister of India must decide boldly. Many experts say that if India can build close ties with its rapidly advancing neighbour China, it will not have to depend on the United States. Now, how the relationship will develop depends on the skill, competence and decisions of India’s diplomats. One major problem has increased — the mutual hostility between the peoples of the two countries. There too, both sides are trying to thaw the ice. Many Indians now feel the need to renew the relationship — this is a good sign.

However, the ongoing conflict and economic competition will continue. And it could take a dangerous turn in the future. In this case, it is urgent for India to reach a decision soon. Even the nature of China–India relations will determine the stability of the southern region. India must also keep this in mind.

Mohsin Habib: Litterateur, journalist and international analyst