Why is BNP against PR

There is a perception among many that if elections are held under the PR system, the BNP will lose while Jamaat will come to power. Is that really the case, and is this why BNP opposes PR?

Politics has been buzzing with the word PR for some time now. In particular, Jamaat and Islami Andolan Bangladesh are the most vocal in demanding that the next national elections be held under the PR system. The National Citizens’ Party (NCP) also supports PR, but in the upper house of parliament. However, their discussions are less about elections and more about justice, reforms and the July Charter. And when they talk about elections, they mean constituent assembly elections. As a result, their position differs greatly from that of other active parties in the country at the moment.

Let us come to PR. This is essentially a type of voting or electoral system. In many countries around the world, especially in Europe, elections are held under this system. So why not in Bangladesh? If modern and democratic European countries can hold elections under PR, why not Bangladesh? Such questions are also being raised among the public. Those who support PR are particularly trying to spread these questions among the people.

What is PR
At present, in Bangladesh’s electoral system, each voter in a national election casts his vote for a particular symbol in their constituency. After counting, the candidate who gets the most votes is declared the winner. Even if someone gets just one vote fewer than the winning candidate, they are considered defeated. This method is called First Past the Post (FPTP). That is, whoever gets the most votes wins, and everyone else loses. Most countries in the world follow this system, and it is still considered the most popular method.

PR means Proportional Representation. In other words, elections are held on the basis of proportionality. Suppose Bangladesh has 120 million voters. If 80 million cast their votes, and each party contests separately, all votes are first counted. Then, each party’s total votes are calculated to see what percentage they represent of the total. Here it does not matter which candidate wins in which constituency. Voters do not vote for a specific candidate. They vote for a symbol. The 300 parliamentary seats are then distributed proportionately to the percentage of votes each party gets.

How are seats distributed
Suppose BNP gets 30 percent of the votes, then they will get 90 out of 300 seats. If Jamaat gets 20 percent, they will get 60 seats. If NCP gets 10 percent, they will get 30 seats. But under the current system, many doubt whether NCP would win 30 seats on their own. Islami Andolan Bangladesh is also a fairly large party; but there is no escaping the question of how many seats they could win if they contested alone.

They might get many votes in many constituencies; but in most places their candidates would still lose by falling slightly short of the winner. That is why they support PR. Because under PR, every vote counts. If their candidates across the country get a total of 12 percent of the votes, then their number of parliamentary seats will be 36. But under the current system, there is enough reason to doubt whether Islami Andolan Bangladesh could win 36 seats.

A coalition government?
There is a political rumour that if elections are held under PR, Jamaat, Islami Andolan Bangladesh and the NCP would form a coalition government. That is, if these three parties contest separately and BNP fails to secure at least 51 percent of the seats needed to form government, then the second-largest party numerically could join with several others to form government. Suppose BNP gets 40 percent of the votes, but Jamaat, Islami Andolan Bangladesh and NCP together get more than 50 percent—then BNP would have to stay in opposition. For now, it is clear that BNP will not ally with Jamaat, Islami Andolan Bangladesh or NCP. Although in politics, nothing is ever final.

Who will get Awami League’s votes
Another calculation is, if the ousted Awami League cannot contest the next elections, where will their votes go? Will Awami League supporters stay at home, or will they vote for the Jatiya Party? The Jatiya Party recently faced another split. A new faction has been formed under Anisul Islam Mahmud. If the faction led by GM Quader cannot participate in the elections, will the faction led by Anisul Islam Mahmud be able to? If so, will Awami League voters cast their votes for that faction of the Jatiya Party? If the Awami League and Jatiya Party votes together amount to 30 percent, they would get 90 seats in parliament. What will happen then?

If BNP gets more than 50 percent and the Jatiya Party 30 percent, then BNP would form the government and Jatiya Party would be in opposition. What then happens to Jamaat, other Islamic parties and the NCP? The main challenge of PR is whether any single party can secure more than 50 percent of the vote. If not, then they must come to terms with other parties. That is when bargaining begins. Often the whole process of forming parliament becomes complicated. The government can become unstable.

If it works in Europe, why not in Bangladesh?
Many countries around the world hold elections under PR. For example: Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Belgium, Switzerland, Austria, Italy, South Africa. Israel also follows this system. In South Asia, Sri Lanka and Nepal; in Asia, Indonesia, the Philippines, East Timor; in South America, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay and several others. However, countries like the United States, Britain, Canada and India do not follow PR. They have direct majority voting systems. That is, the same system followed in Bangladesh.

The question is, if PR works in developed European countries, why not in Bangladesh? A few major reasons can be mentioned—

1. A big problem with PR is that voters do not vote for a specific candidate. They vote for a symbol. That means voters will not know who their candidate is, and even after the election they will not know beforehand who their MP will be. Because before the election, parties will provide a list of 300 candidates. The MPs who go to parliament will be based on how many seats the party secures. How parties will arrange these lists, on what basis, or according to which criteria—this remains a big question.

2. Another major problem is that independent candidates cannot contest under PR. Everyone must be a candidate of some party. That is, voters vote for a party, not for an individual. However, in some countries, independents are considered as a ‘single list’. If they get a certain percentage of votes, they get seats in parliament. But this is complicated.

3. The biggest problem of this system is complications in forming government. If no party secures more than 50 percent on its own, it must negotiate with others. If no party has enough seats to form government, large parties can become hostage to smaller ones. The process of government formation can be disrupted. Bangladesh may be small in size, but it is a densely populated country with very complex politics. Therefore, there are questions about how effective PR would be in such a complex political environment.

4. Although the main task of MPs is lawmaking, Bangladesh’s political culture is different. Here MPs are also engaged in local development and many other activities. Ordinary people have many expectations of them. Most people in the country probably do not believe that their MP’s role is limited only to lawmaking. Instead, voters want their MPs to be available in their everyday needs. That is why, beyond party symbols, a candidate’s personal image, family background and social acceptance become important in elections. Political parties also take these into account while nominating candidates. But under PR, voters will not know who their MP will be after the election, nor who among the contestants from their area will go to parliament. This means the representative-voter relationship does not develop under this system.

5. In developed European countries, the local government structure is very strong. Citizens’ needs are met immediately through these institutions. Moreover, the state ensures all arrangements for a quality life. As a result, people there have no need to think about who their MP is. But the reality in Bangladesh is the complete opposite.

In conclusion, there is no scope to hold the next national elections under PR. To change the electoral system, first of all political consensus is needed, and secondly, the decision must come through parliamentary discussions. At present, neither is possible. Therefore, whether the demand for PR will further heat up the political field in the coming days, and whether anyone has an agenda to create such issues in order to make the February elections uncertain—these suspicions are not unfounded.

Amin Al Rashid: Journalist and writer