BNP-led alliance could get 208, Jamaat alliance 46 seats: EASD survey

A public opinion survey published by Eminence Associates for Social Development, EASD, ahead of the upcoming 13th National Parliamentary Election, indicates that the BNP-led alliance could secure the highest number of seats. According to the survey, the BNP alliance could win about 208 seats, while the Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance's probable seat count is 46. Additionally, Jatiya Party could win 3 seats, other parties 4, and independent candidates could win 17 seats. It also highlighted that 22 constituencies could witness close contests.

The survey results were unveiled at the 3D Seminar Hall of the Krishi Bidyut Institute in the capital on Monday afternoon. EASD claimed that this survey, based on the opinions of 41,500 people, is the largest sample survey conducted for this election.

The findings were presented by EASD's Chief Executive Officer, Shameem Haider Talukdar. He informed that the survey was conducted using the Primary Sampling Unit, PSU, method across 300 parliamentary constituencies in the country. 150 trained enumerators worked at the field level from January 18 to 31. Data was collected from 41,500 respondents via the 'Kobo Toolbox' digital platform.

According to the survey, 66.3 per cent of voters expressed interest in voting for BNP in terms of political preference. Jamaat-e-Islami, in second position, received 11.9 per cent support. Jatiya Party's support stands at 4 per cent, independent candidates at 2.6 per cent, and NCP at 1.7 per cent.

BNP enjoys comparatively higher support among female voters—71.1 per cent of female voters expressed support for BNP. Regionally, the BNP alliance shows a strong position in Chattogram, 76.8 per cent, and Sylhet, 75.6 per cent. Conversely, Jamaat alliance's presence was observed to be comparatively higher in Barishal and Khulna.

The survey also revealed that a significant portion of voters who previously voted for the Awami League are now in favour of change. Shameem Haider Talukdar said that among former Awami League voters, 80 per cent expressed interest in voting for BNP, 15 per cent for Jamaat-e-Islami, and the remaining 5 per cent indicated support for other parties.

66.4 per cent of respondents believe the BNP alliance will be able to form the government after the upcoming election. Simultaneously, 68 per cent of respondents expressed support for BNP Chairperson Tarique Rahman as the next Prime Minister. 14 per cent favoured Jamaat's Ameer Shafiqur Rahman, and 2 per cent favoured NCP Convener Nahid Islam. 16 per cent of respondents were unwilling to express an opinion on this matter.

The event was chaired by EASD Advisor Kazi Saifuddin Bennur. Following the presentation, a panel discussion was held with participation from university teachers and analysts from across the country.