3-year of Ukraine war: Will it stop or take a new turn?

Today, Monday, February 24, 2025, marks the third anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war. Although this war is often referred to simply as the Ukraine war, as the entire conflict is taking place on Ukrainian territory. On February 24, 2022, Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. Vladimir Putin had hoped that Russia would quickly seize Ukraine. However, many analysts had predicted that this war would turn into a prolonged conflict, which indeed came true. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, this is the first time Russia has engaged in such a long-term war. Ukraine claims that Russia has lost 400,000 soldiers in this conflict. While the exact number remains uncertain, sources like BBC and Al Jazeera have reported that by December 2024, Russia had lost at least 150,000 troops, while Ukraine had lost around 50,000 soldiers. Although Ukraine has suffered fewer military casualties, its overall losses have been massive. Nearly 8 million Ukrainians have fled the country, and 5 million have been internally displaced. Russia has occupied approximately 4,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory.
Beyond the economic and infrastructural damages suffered by both countries, the entire world has also felt the repercussions of this war. Particularly, many regions in Asia and Europe have experienced a sharp increase in food prices. After the COVID-19 pandemic, no one had anticipated such a devastating war. But then again, no war is ever welcomed by ordinary people.

Despite this, wars continue to occur across the globe. In addition to the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict, the Syrian war also wreaked havoc in the Middle East for many years. While the economic impact of the Syrian war did not affect the global economy significantly, the consequences of the Ukraine war have been felt worldwide, particularly in rising commodity prices. At its core, this war is not just between Putin and Zelenskyy but largely between Russia and the European Union. Though historical tensions exist between Russia and Ukraine, NATO also played a significant role in the current deadlock. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was formed in 1949 after World War II to counter the Soviet Union's expansionist policies. Ukraine, once part of the Soviet Union, declared independence in 1991, with a national referendum affirming the people's support for independence. Many believe this was a major factor leading to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Since then, Ukraine has faced continuous conflicts with post-Soviet Russia, compounded by internal political struggles. Some Ukrainian governments leaned towards Russia, while others sought closer ties with Europe. Russia, seizing opportunities, frequently intervened in Ukraine's internal affairs. Even today, a segment of the Ukrainian population still identifies with Russian culture and heritage, which Russia has tried to exploit.

The recent escalation between Russia and Ukraine centers around Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, which Russia vehemently opposes. Russia views NATO expansion towards its borders as a direct threat to its security. To neutral observers, the Russia-Ukraine war presents a significant paradox—an independent country like Ukraine has the right to seek NATO membership, while Russia also has the right to protect its national security. Regardless of whose arguments are more justified, what has the world gained from this war? Billions of dollars have been wasted, and countless lives have been lost. Can any war truly be justified? War is one of the darkest aspects of human civilization. Despite the efforts of philosophers, statesmen, and policymakers, wars have persisted throughout history. Perhaps war is an inevitable part of human destiny, or perhaps it will eventually lead to the destruction of civilization itself.

Setting aside philosophical perspectives, let us examine the current situation of the Russia-Ukraine war. As the war enters its third year, a new player has emerged on the scene—U.S. President Donald Trump. Even before his election, Trump promised that if he became president, he would end the war. He even claimed to be the only one capable of stopping the conflict. Just two months into his presidency, Trump has made various statements about ending the war. However, his statements have been inconsistent. At one point, he blamed Zelenskyy for the war, stating that Ukraine should never have initiated the conflict. However, in a recent interview with Fox News, Trump acknowledged that the war began because Putin ordered an invasion of Ukraine. He criticized both Zelenskyy and former U.S. President Joe Biden for failing to prevent the attack. Trump then proposed that in exchange for the military aid provided by the U.S., Ukraine should grant ownership of $500 billion worth of mineral resources to Washington. He also claimed that a deal between the U.S. and Ukraine was imminent.

Zelenskyy rejected Trump's proposal, stating that the military aid provided by the U.S. is worth far less than the amount Trump is demanding. Additionally, Trump’s proposal lacked specific security guarantees. In response, Trump labeled Zelenskyy a "dictator," citing the fact that Ukraine has postponed elections since the war began under martial law. European leaders reacted strongly to Trump’s remarks. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz condemned Trump's comments, stating, “Denying President Zelenskyy’s democratic legitimacy is utterly wrong and dangerous.” French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized that peace in Ukraine must be “strong and sustainable” and should include Russia ceasing its aggression along with strong security assurances for Ukraine.

Meanwhile, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held talks regarding the Ukraine war. However, neither Ukraine nor its European allies were invited to the negotiations. At the same time, Zelenskyy traveled to Turkey to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Speaking at a press conference in Ankara, Zelenskyy stated, “Kyiv wants to ensure that Washington and Moscow do not finalize any agreement behind Ukraine’s back.” Timothy Ash, an associate fellow at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia program, told Al Jazeera that European leaders are concerned that Trump may betray Ukraine in these negotiations. Similar concerns have arisen from Trump's recent statements regarding Gaza, where he suggested relocating its residents to another country and transforming the region into a Middle Eastern seaside resort under U.S. control.

It appears that the path to ending the Russia-Ukraine war has become even more complex. While White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt recently stated that Trump is confident in reaching a deal with Russia to end the war, a CNN report today (February 24) suggests that the war remains uncertain. With the conflict now entering its fourth year, all of Europe faces significant security risks.

Ultimately, for this war to end, Ukraine may have to abandon its pursuit of NATO membership. Will Ukraine agree to this? Until then, there is no indication that Russia will cease its military operations. Meanwhile, Reuters has reported that Russia is actively recruiting new soldiers for the war, with recruitment posters visible across the country. The Kremlin has continued to describe the invasion as a “special military operation” rather than a war. Many Russian citizens have only experienced the war through television screens. Speaking to a BBC correspondent, one Russian citizen said, “I know many people who went to fight, and some never returned home. I hope this war ends as soon as possible.”

We all want this war to end. We hope for a world without war. But will the cries of ordinary people ever reach the ears of the powerful rulers of the world? As bloodshed and conflict persist in different parts of the world, the question remains: Will the Russia-Ukraine war truly end, or will it take another turn? Some political analysts believe that this war will end sooner or later, but where will the next war erupt? That remains the real question. One cannot dismiss the possibility—has there ever been a day in human history without war?

Sources: BBC, Al Jazeera, CNN, Reuters, Wikipedia.