Accurate statistics are essential for food security

There is a lack of reliable statistics in the country. The data regularly provided by various government and private organizations are often questionable and do not always align with reality. As a result, the public has limited confidence in the statistics related to national income growth, inflation, production, consumption, and distribution. This lack of trust must be addressed by ensuring accurate and reliable data from the concerned institutions. Without this, it is impossible to formulate and implement effective development plans. Accurate statistics are also crucial for research; otherwise, the findings may fail to achieve their intended goals.

Researchers often rely on data they collect themselves, but these are usually limited in scope, covering specific regions and sample sizes, making them difficult to apply at a national level. Official statistics are typically published by designated government agencies, but these figures are often influenced by the ruling government. As a result, some statistics appear exaggerated or inflated, while others are undervalued. Such concerns have been raised repeatedly in recent years.

For the past 15 years, the previous government consistently claimed high GDP growth rates, ranging from 6% to 8% annually. However, these figures did not always align with the lived experiences of ordinary people. International development agencies often estimated the GDP growth rate to be 1% to 1.5% lower than the government’s claims. Given the financial struggles of citizens and the state of investment and consumption, many questioned the accuracy of the reported GDP growth.

In contrast, inflation rates appeared to be underestimated. Official figures suggested inflation remained between 5% and 8%, while in reality, food inflation frequently exceeded double digits. For example, in July 2023, food inflation was officially reported at around 14%, though many believed it surpassed 15%. Similarly, unemployment figures were often presented as lower than reality, officially reported between 4.5% and 5.5%, but the true unemployment situation seemed far worse.

Successive governments have tightly controlled statistics on production, demand, and supply, particularly in agriculture. It has often been claimed that Bangladesh is self-sufficient in food, yet the country imports an average of 6 to 7 million tons of food grains annually. In the 2017–18 fiscal year, food grain imports reached 9.8 million tons. Despite a declining population growth rate, from 2.5% to 1.2%, and an increase in reported food production from 10 million to over 50 million tons, food grain imports have more than doubled. This raises questions about whether agricultural production statistics are overestimated.

Recent data on food production appear inflated, affecting market stability. Supply shortages have led to price surges. For instance, according to official figures, potato production in 2023–24 was 10.6 million tons, while the country’s total demand, including seed use, was no more than 9 million tons. This should have resulted in a surplus of 1.5 to 1.6 million tons, yet potato prices soared to BDT 70–80 per kg. Even with imports, prices remained high, suggesting the official production figures were exaggerated. Cold storage facilities, which typically hold 4–5 million tons of potatoes annually, reportedly had less than 3 million tons in the last fiscal year.

A similar discrepancy exists in onion production. The Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) reported an annual onion production of 3.4 to 3.5 million tons, with the 2023–24 figure at 3.9 million tons. However, Bangladesh’s annual onion demand is 2.6 to 2.8 million tons, yet imports of at least 0.6 to 0.7 million tons are required each year. If domestic production were genuinely sufficient, onion prices would not have skyrocketed whenever India restricted exports.

Rice production statistics are also inconsistent. Despite claims of surplus production, Bangladesh imports 1 to 1.5 million tons of rice annually. In 2023–24, the official rice production figure was 40.7 million tons, while the country’s total requirement for 173 million people is at most 37.3 million tons, implying a surplus of 3.4 million tons. However, market instability and rising prices suggest otherwise. The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) estimated 2023–24 rice production at 37 million tons—3.7 million tons less than the government’s claim. High international rice prices discouraged private imports, but wheat imports surged to a record 6.6 million tons.

The DAE reported 17.1 million tons of Aman rice production for 2024, while USAID estimated 14 million tons. Floods and Cyclone Remal significantly reduced yields, and late planting also contributed to lower productivity. However, these realities are absent from the government’s statistics. The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has yet to release the 2024 Aman rice production figures, often publishing data so late that they become irrelevant for policy-making.

Statistical discrepancies also exist in the livestock and fisheries sectors. The current reported annual production levels are:

Milk: 14.1 million tons

Meat: 8.8 million tons

Fish: 4.9 million tons

Eggs: 23.38 billion

Over the past 15 years, annual growth rates in production have been:

Milk: 12%

Meat: 13%

Eggs: 9%

Fish: 3.5%

If these growth rates were accurate, prices should have remained stable. However, market trends suggest otherwise. According to the Department of Livestock Services (DLS), the per capita availability of milk is 225 grams per day, but BBS reports per capita milk consumption at only 34 grams. Similarly, DLS states that per capita meat availability is 140 grams, eggs 19 grams, and fish 79 grams, whereas BBS reports 40 grams of meat, 13 grams of eggs, and 68 grams of fish per person per day. These discrepancies cast doubt on the accuracy of production statistics.

According to DLS data, Bangladesh nearly meets its national demand for dairy, meat, and fish. However, if that were true, why are these products so expensive? In West Bengal, India, an egg costs BDT 6, whereas in Bangladesh, it costs BDT 14–15. Packaged milk in Bangladesh costs BDT 100 per liter (approximately USD 1), which is higher than in many other countries. Australia and New Zealand produce milk at half the cost of Bangladesh and export globally. Brazil has offered to supply beef to Bangladesh for less than BDT 500 per kg, while local beef prices exceed BDT 750 per kg.

To reduce production costs, Bangladesh must adopt modern technology and enhance production efficiency. Farmers need policy and financial support to improve productivity.

BBS is the primary national agency for statistics, and it is expected to provide accurate data. However, as long as it remains under government control, its objectivity may be compromised. To ensure reliable statistics, BBS must be restructured as an independent and autonomous institution. Its staff should receive advanced training to enhance their expertise, and they must be committed to presenting unbiased, accurate statistics. Misleading, exaggerated, or undervalued data must be avoided, as they hinder effective planning and implementation of development strategies.

Dr. Jahangir Alam: Agricultural Economist, Former Director General of the Bangladesh Livestock Research Institute, and Former Vice-Chancellor of the University of Global Village.