Analysis of 2024 Lok Sabha Elections

Countdown begins for 18th Lok Sabha elections in India. The outcome of the elections could shape the future of Indian politics. Amidst idealistic opposition, the nation braces for a rare political realignment. Despite the Election Commission's approval of over 50 national and state-based regional political parties, the focus remains primarily on two national political parties - the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress. While there have been preliminary announcements and interests, no significant third-party coalition has emerged. Many regional parties have declared their intention to contest independently, signaling a fragmented electoral landscape.

Although India's Lok Sabha elections primarily decide the composition of political parties' MPs, BJP has transformed it into somewhat of a presidential-style election, largely revolving around Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In contrast, it's a reality that the opposition, including Congress and other regional parties, has proclaimed this election as Modi vs. 'the people.'

A noteworthy aspect is that if Narendra Modi under NDA leadership secures the position of Prime Minister for the third consecutive term, he could surpass the record of India's longest-serving Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru. Nehru held office for 16 years and 286 days until his demise. However, Modi's third term would equal the duration of Nehru's leadership. It's worth mentioning that outside the Gandhi family, only Dr. Manmohan Singh served as Prime Minister for a full decade. Modi, as the 14th Prime Minister of the country, has already exceeded this tenure. If he secures a third term, he will surpass Manmohan Singh's tenure. This underlines the reality that since independence, India's politics has been predominantly Congress-centric, barring a few intermittent periods of independence.

The first major shift occurred in Indian politics when Atal Bihari Vajpayee led the BJP to form the NDA government. A remarkable event was the formation of India's first Congress-non-BJP coalition government under HD Deve Gowda's leadership. This picture has since changed, with the BJP now at the forefront. The axis of politics has shifted. Previously, leaders like Charan Singh, Morarji Desai, and Vishwanath Pratap Singh held the position of Prime Minister for short periods, but Indian politics didn't revolve around them. The first disruptive event was the formation of regional party-led governments, notably under HD Deve Gowda, where Congress chose not to participate but did not actively oppose.

In Indian politics, the first united front, named the Third Front, was created as an alternative axis. This example still occasionally sees regional parties attempting resurgence. Until the end, this Lok Sabha election didn't finalize it. Hence the contest remained between BJP-led NDA versus Congress-led UPA (including Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena). It was supposed to be a united progressive front, but it's still evolving. The conversation continues. Many regional parties outside these two axes, such as Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh (led by Jagan Reddy), Telangana Rashtra Samithi in Telangana, and AIADMK (divided) in Tamil Nadu, are competing independently.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, under Narendra Modi's leadership, the BJP-led alliance won 283 out of 543 seats, securing an unprecedented majority. The NDA alliance secured 336 seats. This was the first time since 1989 that a single political party formed the government with the lowest percentage of votes. Just 31%. With the alliance, it rose to 38.5%. In 2019, the BJP increased its seats to 37.76% and, with NDA allies, to 45%. After 1989, this was the first time a single political party won the most votes. The Congress did not reach double digits in Lok Sabha seats after independence. In 2014, it won 44, and in 2019, it achieved its lowest vote share after independence.

In 2023, assembly elections were held in nine states. In February, BJP came to power for the second time in Tripura. BJP's regional ally formed the government in Meghalaya and Nagaland. Congress's power diminished. Then, in May, the Karnataka assembly election results gave a breather to the Congress. Despite BJP's aggressive Hindutva agenda (especially banning Hijab in schools), Congress made gains, particularly in Karnataka, in 2021's West Bengal 'No Vote to BJP' campaign. Of the 243 seats, Congress won 135, securing a comfortable majority. The Karnataka battle reflected a direct clash between BJP's right-wing Hindutva and Congress's inclusive secularism. It was believed that Congress might now compete with Modi's BJP at the national level. However, the winds changed in November when the assembly elections in five states took place. Mizoram saw a victory for the Mizo National Front. Telangana followed Karnataka's pattern, with Congress emerging victorious after the state's split, but Congress made gains in Hindi-speaking Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.

In Rajasthan, there is a change in government every five years, which is not surprising. The results in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh surprised everyone or political observers. There was no clear opinion or exit poll indicating victory for the BJP. Even BJP leaders were not confident. They were projected to win only a third of the seats. This victory was portrayed as a harbinger for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections by BJP's national leadership, especially Narendra Modi. Before this, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi embarked on a unique journey. Leaders in India who have embarked on such journeys have achieved political success. In 1983, Janata Party leader Chandrashekhar started his journey in Kanyakumari and ended up in Delhi after a six-month-long march, becoming the Prime Minister with Congress support. When Lal Krishna Advani, a BJP leader, started the Rath Yatra from Somnath to Ayodhya to demand the construction of the Ram temple, the BJP's political fate changed. Hindu nationalist politics rose. The first Rath Yatra was led by Andhra's NT Rama Rao. After his political rise, Andhra Pradesh became the 'fortress of the third front' in India.

Rahul Gandhi started his journey from Kanyakumari with the slogan 'What the market needs is love' in September. The journey ended in Srinagar after covering 3500 km. Rahul received immense support along the way - that's true. Not just Congress supporters, ordinary citizens and sections of civil society joined the journey. Congress leaders believed that Rahul's journey would yield political dividends. However, only 37% of people in a national survey believed that there would be any benefit. Gujarat witnessed significant losses for Congress. In the first Himachal Pradesh elections, Congress gained a simple majority. Congress decided to ally with AAP in Lok Sabha elections after this. Rahul's journey had an impact on Congress's success in Karnataka. Even in Telangana, Congress gained politically.

After unexpected success in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan, the Prime Minister himself announced victory for BJP in the party headquarters saying 'now it's beyond 300 seats', meaning BJP would win more than 300 seats this time. Later, he revised his statement to BJP crossing 370 seats. Now, the question arises: will BJP really get 370 seats? Modi hinted that by revoking Article 370 in Kashmir, he could garner support for BJP. Modi has made it clear that besides Ayodhya, Hinduism will be promoted by demolishing mosques in Kashi and Mathura.

Prime Minister Modi held the first G20 summit in Delhi. India's space research milestone was achieved by sending Chandrayaan to the southern region of the moon. Remarkably, these issues are not central to BJP's promotion. The main focus of fundamental promotion is Hinduism, like the Ram temple. Hindutva ideal. The advantage of Hinduism is prioritizing issues like current economic problems, unemployment, affecting the minds of majority Hindu voters. The focus of promotion is to keep three divorces prohibited. It is the first step towards enforcing uniform civil code or giving an alternative view. Promoting Hindutva issues pushes issues affecting the majority Hindu voters to the back.

Apart from ideological issues, another major tool of the BJP government is providing free rations to rural people. The Modi government has announced free rations for 80 crore people in the country. However, the initiative claims to have lifted 25 crore people out of poverty. Despite flaws and omissions, a new vote bank has been created by providing housing and gas cylinders to the poor. The latest tool of polarization is the Citizenship Amendment Act. By granting citizenship to Hindus, Christians, and Buddhists persecuted from Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, how much political benefit will BJP gain?

In 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 303 seats. Most of these seats came from Hindi-speaking states, comprising a significant portion of the total seats. Therefore, to maintain the same seat count as the previous election, the BJP needed to replicate its success from the last Lok Sabha elections in most states. However, in many states, the possibility of increasing seats was slim. For instance, in Bihar, out of 40 seats, the BJP won 39 with the support of allies, leaving little room for seat expansion. Even with potential support from Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United), contesting against the BJP in 20 seats, there's uncertainty if they could win all seats. Nitish Kumar's popularity adds to the challenge, especially with the emergence of Tejashwi Yadav, Lalu Prasad's son, who poses a threat to the BJP in Bihar.

Moving on to the second state, Chhattisgarh, after winning a two-thirds majority in the recent legislative assembly elections, BJP re-emerged. In the previous Lok Sabha elections, out of 11 seats, BJP won 9 in the state. Now, with Congress Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel in opposition, the potential for BJP is uncertain.
In Delhi, where BJP swept all 7 seats in the last elections, the scenario has changed. Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) have joined forces, contesting in a 4-3 seat arrangement. Despite receiving over 50% of the votes in each seat last time, BJP's dominance might face a challenge with this alliance, although a complete reversal seems unlikely.

Gujarat, with 26 seats, saw BJP winning all seats in the previous election. However, with Congress and AAP forging an alliance this time, the likelihood of BJP maintaining its previous tally is doubtful.

In Haryana, where BJP had a strong foothold with 10 out of 10 seats last time, a recent decision to contest independently might lead to a reduction in seats rather than an increase.

Himachal Pradesh, with all 4 seats won by BJP, doesn't offer much room for expansion either. Similarly, BJP's success in Jharkhand (11 out of 14 seats), and Karnataka (25 out of 28 seats) in the last Lok Sabha elections, might not see significant changes.

In Maharashtra, BJP's dominance was challenged with Shiv Sena and NCP breaking ties, necessitating BJP to negotiate for more seats.

Rajasthan, where BJP won 24 out of 25 seats last time, might see some potential for expansion, but elsewhere, the uncertainty prevails.

In Tripura, where BJP won both seats last time, and Uttar Pradesh, with 62 out of 80 seats secured by BJP, the upcoming elections pose a challenge due to the Congress-Samajwadi Party alliance. Though BJP may still win more seats, the possibility of a significant increase is uncertain.

Finally, in Uttarakhand, where BJP won all 5 seats last time, there's no likelihood of seat expansion. Thus, out of the total 303 seats, it remains uncertain which state will contribute to BJP's aim of reaching 370 seats. The success of the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections was unexpected initially, but various factors such as the Pulwama attack and Balakot airstrikes contributed to their significant seat increase from 284 to 303.

The main target of the BJP is to increase its seats in the southern and northeastern states of India. For example, in Andhra Pradesh, the BJP failed to win a single seat out of the twenty-five seats in the last election. Now, it has allied with the Telugu Desam Party. There are doubts about how successful this alliance will be. In Kerala, the primary opposition is mainly between the Congress and the Left parties. The chances of the BJP winning seats there are slim. A similar situation exists in Tamil Nadu with forty seats. After the ethnic violence in Manipur, it's challenging for the BJP to gain additional seats in northeastern India. In the last election, the BJP won thirteen seats in the region. In Odisha, out of twenty-one seats, the BJP won eight. There is a possibility of the BJP increasing its seats there, albeit marginally.

The BJP's main focus is West Bengal, the third-largest state. Winning eighteen seats here is the primary goal, although the BJP claims it could win fifty seats. Looking at the national picture, if the BJP loses seats in states where it currently has a majority, it could have difficulty forming a government. Politics is not just about numbers; it's about chemistry. The BJP will try every possible means to make things happen in its favor.

Now, let's look at the NDA and the Congress alliance. The BJP's old allies are not as strong as before. The United Janata Dal has now joined the United Janata Dal. New alliances have been formed with the Shiv Sena (divided), the AIADMK (divided) in Andhra Pradesh, the Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka, and others. In Uttar Pradesh, besides small caste-based parties, there are national and regional parties and independents. Despite aggressive campaigning, many who were part of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) during the Congress government in 2004 are not there anymore. The UPA has become weaker, and the BJP is capitalizing on it.

Even though the BJP may not align with left-wing parties, they would still support a Congress-led government until the end. If there is a chance, they will support it, just as they did in the first UPA. The only sticking point is the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal. It's not the end yet. Although the Aam Aadmi Party has not formed an alliance with us, they haven't in Punjab either. It's said that the reason is that aligning with us would mean losing anti-establishment or anti-BJP votes prematurely or to the BJP. Hence, despite efforts in Gujarat and Delhi, it hasn't happened in Punjab.

Rajiv Gandhi is still the only Prime Minister, who won 411 seats in the sympathy wave after the assassination of Indira Gandhi. Modi aims to surpass that number this time. Will it happen? There's no certainty. Breaking Rajiv Gandhi's record is not the only goal. It's about achieving a two-thirds majority in both houses of Parliament. Already, the BJP is four seats away from a simple majority in the Rajya Sabha. If the same happens in the Lok Sabha, then Modi can change India's constitutional structure.

In 2026, there will be an opportunity to increase the number of seats in the Lok Sabha. Already, the new Parliament building has been allocated eight seats for the Lok Sabha. The deadline for increasing seats in the Lok Sabha is until that year. If seats are increased, the boundaries of Lok Sabha constituencies will be redrawn. Modi's age at that time will be seventy. According to the retirement rule, politicians will retire at that age. So, will Modi do it? By gaining a majority in both houses, will he change India's parliamentary democracy to a presidential one? This is the dream of the RSS.

Author: Senior journalist and columnist