Bangladesh, India's concern over China's dam construction on Brahmaputra

China has announced plans to construct the world’s largest dam on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet, with an estimated investment of $137 billion. However, this ambitious project has raised serious concerns for downstream countries like Bangladesh and India, as experts fear it could adversely affect water supply and ecological balance in these nations.

Once completed, the dam will be the largest hydroelectric plant in the world, generating three times more electricity than China’s current largest dam, the Three Gorges Dam. Officials from India and Bangladesh worry that the dam could disrupt their rightful share of water flow.

The state-owned Power Construction Corporation of China claims that the dam will be built on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, generating 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually. The Yarlung Tsangpo originates from melting glaciers and mountain springs, flowing through India’s Arunachal Pradesh and Assam states before entering Bangladesh, where it is known as the Brahmaputra.

China asserts that the project is the result of decades of research and will not have negative impacts on any other country. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said, “China has always been responsible in managing transboundary rivers. This dam project will not harm any other country.” According to the state-run Xinhua news agency, the dam will play a vital role in achieving China’s carbon neutrality goals and will boost employment opportunities in Tibet.

However, experts have expressed concerns that the dam will enable China to control the water flow of the Brahmaputra River, potentially causing excessive water release during monsoons and water shortages in dry seasons. This could lead to flooding or drought in large areas of Assam in India and Bangladesh.

Environmentalists also warn that the Brahmaputra River lies in a seismically active zone, making the construction of such a massive dam particularly risky in terms of earthquakes.

Both Bangladesh and India have already voiced their apprehensions regarding the project. Experts in both countries believe that the dam could severely impact local ecosystems, agriculture, and fisheries.

Bangladesh’s Foreign Affairs Advisor Md. Towhid Hossain stated, “If the dam disrupts the natural flow of the Brahmaputra River, it could severely affect Bangladesh’s water security and food production. We are deeply concerned and are preparing to engage in diplomatic discussions with China.” He also emphasized the need for transparency, saying, “We have expressed our concerns and requested China to share the studies conducted on this project. They have assured us that water flow will not be reduced.”

Following China’s announcement, India responded early in January, asserting that it will safeguard its interests. The Indian government reminded China of its rights over the river’s water and called for greater transparency regarding the project.

Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said, “We will continue to monitor developments and take necessary measures to protect our interests.” When asked about the potential impacts on Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, Jaiswal reiterated India’s commitment to raising its concerns through diplomatic channels.

Environmentalists and river management experts advocate for collaborative solutions through transnational cooperation to manage the river without disrupting its natural flow. They urge Bangladesh and India to engage with China under international water laws and forums to address the issue.

Experts warn that if the dam is built, it could have long-lasting effects on the environment, livelihoods, and millions of people dependent on the Brahmaputra River.

Harsh V. Pant, a professor of international relations at King’s College London, stated that the dam could serve as a strategic tool for China to exert pressure on India in the future. “Although border tensions have somewhat eased, this project could complicate bilateral relations further,” he said.