Bangladesh may need two more decades to gain energy autonomy

As the nation develops and its population grows, energy demand continues to surge. However, supply struggles to keep pace, raising concerns over long-term energy security.
 
Despite reduced fuel consumption in the winter months, the country has faced acute shortages, particularly in the industrial and residential sectors.
 
Heavy dependence on imports has compounded the crisis.  
 
The question remains: When can Bangladesh expect to achieve energy self-sufficiency?
 
Experts warn that the crisis is profound. While a strategic approach could mitigate the situation in three to five years, full independence from imports—through increased domestic gas exploration, renewable energy expansion, and reduction of dollar dependency—may take 15 to 20 years unless significant new gas fields are discovered.  
 
The primary fuel sources—natural gas, coal, and oil—power Bangladesh’s electricity grid, but the country remains heavily reliant on imports.
 
Nearly all petroleum is sourced from abroad, while a significant portion of the gas supply comes from imported LNG.
 
Currently, 56% of the nation’s electricity is generated from natural gas.  
 
Bangladesh has identified 29 gas fields, with only 20 currently in active production.
 
The country’s daily gas demand stands at approximately 400 crore cubic feet, while supply is limited to 270 crore cubic feet.
 
Of this, 70 crore cubic feet come from imported LNG, leading to a daily shortfall of 130 crore cubic feet.  
 
According to Petrobangla’s 2024 report, Bangladesh’s total gas reserves stand at 30.13 trillion cubic feet (TCF), with 19.5 TCF already consumed.
 
At the current rate of use, the reserves could last another 9-10 years.
 
Authorities are exploring new drilling and exploration projects to address the shortage.  
 
Experts attribute the crisis to several factors, including foreign exchange shortages, limited offshore gas extraction, inefficient power grid management, and inadequate investment in renewable energy.
 
Without a structured savings and implementation plan aligned with the economy, Bangladesh’s energy sector cannot achieve stability.  
 
Despite being a cost-effective resource, domestic gas production has declined, increasing reliance on costly imports that strain the economy.
 
Experts warn that the foreign exchange burden of importing LNG is exacerbating the country’s financial instability.
 
Many gas-based power plants remain inactive due to fuel shortages, while industrial production suffers, impacting exports and, consequently, foreign currency reserves.  
 
Dr. Ijaz Hossain, an energy and sustainable development expert and former professor at Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), discussed the severity of the crisis and potential solutions in an interview with Views Bangladesh.  
 
How severe is Bangladesh’s energy crisis?
 
The primary challenge lies in sourcing fuel, Dr. Ijaz Hossain says.
 
“The crisis is deep-rooted. Most of our energy is import-dependent, and years of neglect have brought us to this point. There is no quick fix. We must prioritise domestic gas extraction while being cautious with LNG consumption and improving energy efficiency.”  
 
To tackle the crisis, he suggested integrating more renewable energy sources, which could help stabilise the situation within three to five years. However, Bangladesh’s economic uncertainty and limited dollar reserves add another layer of complexity to energy procurement. He also noted that energy theft, illegal connections, and system inefficiencies contribute to an estimated 10% energy loss.  
 
What are the long-term strategies for energy security?  
 
According to Dr. Ijaz Hossain, Bangladesh must realistically assess its dependence on imported energy.
 
“For a country like ours, self-reliance should be the priority. We must ensure the effective utilisation of existing resources.”  
 
Despite possessing high-quality coal reserves, environmental concerns have hindered extraction.
 
If utilised effectively, these reserves could significantly alleviate the crisis for the next 10-20 years.  
 
Role of renewable energy
 
Experts advocate for a gradual shift towards renewable energy, suggesting an annual 1% increase in renewable power generation.
 
If implemented, this could reduce energy imports by 20% over two decades.
 
Coupled with advanced energy technology, such measures could provide a sustainable solution to the crisis.  
 
How long until energy self-sufficiency?
 
Dr. Hossain projected that, with the right policies and execution, the crisis could be brought under control within five years.
 
However, full self-reliance could take a minimum of 15 years.
 
The timeline could be shortened with the discovery of new gas fields, effective coal extraction, and economic recovery.
 
“A minimum of 15 years is required to achieve stability, though exiting the immediate crisis may take five years. The situation is severe, but with the right steps, it is manageable,” he concluded.  
 
As Bangladesh grapples with the ongoing energy crisis, the path forward requires long-term strategic planning, sustainable investments, and urgent policy shifts.
 
The road to energy independence will be challenging, but decisive action today could shape a more resilient future for the nation.