Brief defeat of Iran's hardliners

Reformist leader Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian has been elected as the President of Iran. He defeated hardliner Saeed Jalili by 28,000 votes in the second round of voting, becoming Iran's new president with 16.3 million votes, while Jalili received 13.5 million votes. This election took place two and a half years into the government’s term following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a plane crash. The majority of Pezeshkian's supporters are young people who are tired of Iran's strict religious rules. The public's dissatisfaction with the hardline rule in Iran is the main reason behind Pezeshkian's victory. Due to a lack of confidence in the Iranian election system, only 40% of eligible voters participated in the first round. In the second round, to prevent hardliner Saeed Jalili from coming to power, young voters became more eager to vote, resulting in a 50% turnout. These young people are also not in favor of Iran being isolated from the rest of the world. The new president, a reformist, aims to free Iran from its isolated status; however, the power of the Iranian president is not the same as in other presidential systems.

The ultimate authority lies with the Supreme Leader, Sayyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei. From 1981 to 1989, Khamenei served as Iran’s third president and has been the Supreme Leader since 1989. Before his death, Ruhollah Khomeini appointed Khamenei as his successor. It seems he will remain in power for life and will continue to govern the country with his absolute authority. Not only the executive, legislative, and judicial branches but also the military and media are under his control. There are a few other powerful autocrats like him in the world.

The president of Iran is essentially the Supreme Leader’s primary assistant. Besides governing, the Supreme Leader also issues fatwas, and according to his fatwa, the development and use of nuclear weapons are forbidden under Islamic law. Iran's presidential or parliamentary elections are not democratic like those in Western countries. Any adult Iranian citizen cannot just run for office. The Guardian Council decides who can be a candidate for the presidency. Although 80 people, including four women, submitted their candidacy for the presidency, the Guardian Council only allowed four to compete. No woman has ever been allowed to run for the presidency. The Guardian Council, consisting of 12 members, is not democratically elected; its members are appointed by the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. All candidates for the presidency and parliamentary elections must be approved by the Guardian Council.

The Guardian Council typically disqualifies reformist candidates, but this time they did not exclude Masoud Pezeshkian from the presidential race. One of the main reasons for not disqualifying him is his loyalty to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Another reason might be that Iran possibly wants to improve relations with Europe and America through the new president, Pezeshkian. Even hardliners are not guaranteed a chance to run; candidates must be loyal to Islamic principles and the Supreme Leader, and a hint of independence can disqualify them. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who wanted to run this time, was not given the chance because he lost the Supreme Leader's trust.

Ahmadinejad was first elected president in 2005 with massive public support and re-elected in 2009. Born into a poor blacksmith's family, Dr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad led a very simple life and was vocal against corruption during his presidency. Their two-room house had no furniture except a few wooden chairs. Even in the presidential palace, he slept on a carpet on the floor, and the expensive carpets were sent to mosques. He did not take any salary or benefits from the state while in office, supporting his family with the $250 monthly stipend he received from Tehran University. By the time he left the presidency in 2013, his wealth had only increased in one aspect, the renovation of his inherited house, which was funded by a loan. Dr. Ahmadinejad, who holds a Ph.D., wanted to run for president again this time but was not given the opportunity by the Guardian Council. If one falls out of favor with the Supreme Leader, even a president's life can become endangered. Abolhassan Banisadr was the first president of the Islamic Republic of Iran. He was impeached from the presidency for taking steps against the injustices of the ruling clerics and fled to France disguised in a skirt after being ordered to be arrested for conspiracy and treason.

The recent presidential election demonstrated that without strict religious controls, the Iranian people could not be silenced in this manner. Recently, during Ebrahim Raisi's presidency, the morality police killed Mahsa Amini during an altercation because a few strands of her hair were showing from her hijab. This brutality sparked street protests with slogans like "We want freedom and equality, not hijab." The rulers tried to suppress government opponents with a heavy hand. In 2023, 853 people were executed in Iran. One advantage for rulers in the Islamic Republic is that Sharia law cannot be opposed. Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are rivals in regional politics. Despite some improvement in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia through China's mediation, the competition to be the leading Muslim country persists between Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is a staunch ally of Europe and America, while the Western world, prompted by the United States, continues to boycott Iran. Since the start of the Ukraine-Russia war, with the world's economy divided under the leadership of China and Russia, Iran has created some military protection but is facing increasing economic hardships. Before 1979, under Reza Shah Pahlavi, Iran had made significant progress from an agricultural economy to industrialization. Between 1964 and 1978, Iran's gross national product grew at an annual rate of 13.2% at constant prices, with oil, gas, and construction industries expanding by nearly 500%. However, after the Islamic Revolution in 1979, most industries and factories moved from private to state ownership. The Iraq-Iran war, which began in 1980 and lasted for eight years, cost Iran 500 billion USD. Like other Muslim countries, Iran's population is rapidly growing, doubling in just 20 years between 1980 and 2000. Relations with Western countries have deteriorated due to Iran's nuclear program. The assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, the architect of Iran's regional military activities, by the United States in 2020 further worsened relations between the two countries.

On the other hand, Iran-supported militia groups in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen are trying to undermine American dominance in the Middle East. Therefore, the U.S. employs various diplomatic strategies to suppress Iran. In 1996, the U.S. government passed the Iran and Libya Sanctions Act, which resulted in a decline in Iran's international trade. America's stance against Iran became so stringent that any country trading with Iran faced American sanctions. Due to these sanctions, Iran's oil exports were halved, severely impacting its economy. Consequently, Iran resorted to selling oil at lower prices through illicit channels. In 2012, the value of the Iranian rial halved; currently, one Bangladeshi taka equals 358.40 Iranian rials. Inflation in Iran is now over 40%, and the prices of essential goods are skyrocketing. Unemployment rates are increasing daily. Due to economic and trade sanctions, Iran is unable to achieve the desired progress and development.

Newly elected President Pezeshkian promised during his campaign to lift Iran out of isolation and improve relations with the U.S. and Western countries. He also opposes the mandatory hijab law. The new president is hopeful about reforming Iran's internal policies and foreign relations. However, even though reformist citizens voted for him, they are skeptical about his power and capability. Hardliners dominate the administration, maintaining their unchallenged authority, making it difficult for the president to implement any reforms. Additionally, crucial foreign policy decisions in Iran are made by the Supreme National Security Council. This council includes government representatives, military officials, Supreme Leader Khamenei, and members of parliament. Without their consent, the new president will find it impossible to adopt and implement reformist foreign policies. The biggest obstacle is that Pezeshkian must follow the directives of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to retain his position as president. Otherwise, he may have to flee the country disguised like Banisadr, shaving his beard, mustache, and eyebrows to save his life.

Author: Former Executive Director of Bangladesh Bank and former Managing Director of Mint.