Can Bangladesh defeat India?

Any match between India and Pakistan in an ICC tournament brings extra heat and excitement. Similarly, the Bangladesh-India rivalry has become increasingly captivating over time since Bangladesh defeated India 2-1 in a three-match ODI series in Mirpur in 2015, the cricket battles between the neighboring countries have always been intense, with both sides showing no mercy. The atmosphere is always charged with tension.

On Thursday (February 20), these two teams will face off again in the Champions Trophy at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium. The match will start at 3:00pm Bangladesh time. This match marks the beginning of both teams' journey in the Champions Trophy. It is expected to be an exciting contest, with fierce competition.

India, as an opponent, is very strong. They are far ahead of Bangladesh in terms of strength and ability. India is considered one of the favorites for the tournament. Bangladesh team, led by Najmul Hossain Shanto, knows that they will face a tough challenge right from the start. Bangladesh has played only eight ODIs against India in the last eight years since the 2017 Champions Trophy.

Bangladesh is at a disadvantage due to the lack of regular matches against India, and they have also not had much preparation for the Champions Trophy. With only the experience of playing in the BPL, Shanto and his team are heading into the tournament. However, they did play a practice match against Pakistan’s 'A' team but couldn’t gain much confidence. The batting department is particularly a concern for Bangladesh. In the practice match, Bangladesh was all out in just 38.2 overs, and none of their batsmen managed to score a half-century. So, Bangladesh heads into the Champions Trophy somewhat unprepared.

On the other hand, India enters the tournament with the recent experience of playing an ODI series against England at home. Given this preparation gap, the question remains: can Bangladesh defeat India in the first match?

India is definitely a team capable of winning the Champions Trophy. To beat them, Bangladesh will need an extraordinary performance. However, there are some positive factors for Bangladesh in the match. Firstly, India will be without their destructive pacer Jasprit Bumrah. When compared to India’s pace attack, Bangladesh’s pace bowlers like Taskin, Mustafiz, and Nahid are not far behind. In Dubai, they could be a major threat to the Indian batters. Secondly, while India is known for their spin attack, Bangladesh also has a strong spin department with bowlers like Rishad, Miraz, and Nasum, who can perform brilliantly at any time. India’s batting lineup is world-renowned and deep in experience, but if Bangladesh’s batters perform well on the day, they could win the match.

Another factor to consider is the conditions. Bangladesh played an ODI series in Sharjah against Afghanistan in October, although they lost. However, the conditions in the UAE are quite familiar to them. In contrast, India has not played an ODI in the UAE since the 2018 Asia Cup. After six and a half years, they will face some challenges adapting to the conditions. But India’s players are experienced in adjusting to various conditions.

Looking at the recent head-to-head, Bangladesh has the upper hand in the last five matches. Bangladesh has won three of the last five encounters against India in the World Cup, Asia Cup, and bilateral series, while India has won two. In 2022, Bangladesh won a three-match home series 2-1 against India. Additionally, in 2023, Bangladesh defeated India by six runs in an Asia Cup match in Sri Lanka. Since October 1998, Bangladesh and India have played 41 ODIs, with Bangladesh winning eight and India winning 32. One match ended in no result. However, in ICC tournaments, Bangladesh has only defeated India once, in the 2007 World Cup at the 17th match in the West Indies, where Bangladesh won by 5 wickets. This historic victory is still remembered, and the sole representative of that victorious team, Mushfiqur Rahim, is part of the Champions Trophy squad this year. Bangladesh also has the success of defeating India in the 2012 Asia Cup alongside their bilateral series victories.