Can Pakistan be divided by insurgence in Balochistan?

Pakistan’s security forces successfully ended a military operation against the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), a separatist group that hijacked the Jaffar Express train in Balochistan, rescuing 346 passengers. The train, traveling from Quetta to Peshawar, was attacked near Sibi city, with the BLA claiming responsibility. After over a day of combat, security forces killed all 33 attackers but also reported 21 passenger deaths and four paramilitary casualties. The BLA demanded the release of Baloch political prisoners, but no official response was given. Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest but least developed province, has seen increased violence, with the BLA growing more substantial due to advanced weaponry and local support.

Train hijackings are extremely rare globally and in Pakistan. This attack marks the first time an entire train was hijacked in Pakistan by any armed group, including the BLA. Historically, such incidents are uncommon, with notable examples including a 1923 hijacking in China and 1970s hijackings in the Netherlands. The BLA’s ability to execute such a large-scale operation highlights its growing sophistication and audacity. The BLA has increasingly targeted security forces, infrastructure, and foreign investments, particularly those tied to China's multi-billion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative. The hijacking follows a series of deadly bombings, including attacks on Chinese nationals and government installations, as the insurgency intensifies. Much of the BLA's recent violence has targeted Chinese investments in Balochistan, particularly those tied to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The Gwadar deep-sea port and various infrastructure projects have become prime targets, with militants carrying out suicide bombings and ambushes against Chinese engineers and workers. The BLA views these projects as part of a "colonial-style" economic arrangement that benefits outsiders while leaving the local population impoverished. Attacks on Chinese nationals in Karachi, Quetta, and Gwadar have prompted security concerns for Beijing, which has urged Islamabad to take stronger measures against separatist violence.

The incident has raised several questions about various issues, including the reasons behind the Baloch insurgency, the role of Pakistani power elites in exacerbating grievances in Balochistan, regional security concerns, the BLA's increasing capacity and audacity, and the strategic implications of the Baloch unrest. Let us try to unpack these issues!

The Baloch insurgency in Pakistan is a protracted ethno-nationalist conflict. It has deep historical roots and far-reaching regional implications. Since 2004, Baloch militants have been engaged in a low-level insurgency against the Pakistani government. Economic marginalization, ethnic grievances, and geopolitical tensions reportedly drive the insurgency. The Baloch insurgency is distinct from Pakistan's other militant conflicts, as it is not driven by religious extremism but by nationalist aspirations. Unlike Islamist militant groups such as the Pakistani Taliban, the BLA, and other separatist factions seek an independent Balochistan rather than the establishment of an Islamic state. However, the movement remains fragmented, with multiple factions operating across Pakistan and alleged safe havens in Iran and Afghanistan. Islamabad has repeatedly accused Tehran and Kabul of harboring Baloch militants, further complicating regional dynamics.

Balochistan is Pakistan's largest, westernmost, and least populated province, though it spans 44 percent of the country's landmass. It is home to just 14.8 million of the country's 240 million people. Balochistan has long been a hotbed of discontent. The province also extends into neighboring Iran and Afghanistan, where ethnic Baloch communities reside. This cross-border ethnic presence has contributed to ongoing instability, with both Iran and Pakistan recently launching retaliatory airstrikes against militant groups accused of operating in each other's territories.

Tensions have been ongoing since the 19th century. The British colonial policies exacerbated tribal divisions and contributed to economic underdevelopment. Following Pakistan's independence in 1947, Baloch leaders sought greater autonomy but were repressed. The 1955 "One Unit" scheme further alienated the Balochs by centralizing power in Punjab, Pakistan's dominant province. Balochistan suffers from federal underrepresentation, resource exploitation, and coercive policies rooted in its colonial past. This article argues that sustainable peace requires a shift from repression to reconciliation, with meaningful trust-building efforts and political dialogue essential for addressing the region's deep-seated grievances.

In 2004, renewed violence erupted after the construction of the Chinese-funded Gwadar port, a strategic megaproject that excluded local participation and displaced communities. A significant turning point occurred in 2006 with the killing of Akbar Bugti, a veteran political leader of the Bugti tribe, who had served as Chief Minister, Governor, and Federal Minister of State. His death, reportedly at the hands of the Pakistan Army over political disagreements, ignited a low-level separatist movement that soon escalated into a protracted conflict. Over time, sporadic attacks on security forces and infrastructure evolved into full-scale guerrilla warfare, with targeted assassinations and bombings against state and military installations. By 2022, militant groups like the BLA and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) escalated their attacks, primarily targeting the Pakistan Army, Rangers, and Frontier Corps. These groups, dominated mainly by the Marri and Bugti tribes, operate from safe havens in Afghanistan, driven by longstanding grievances.

Experts link the BLA's increasing sophistication to the influx of advanced weaponry allegedly acquired from Afghanistan after the U.S. withdrawal. The situation is further complicated by Islamabad's accusations against Afghanistan's Taliban-led government and India, both of whom deny involvement. With insurgent attacks rising by nearly 60 percent in the past year and political instability weakening state control, analysts warn that Pakistan faces a deepening security crisis. The government's failure to engage with Balochistan's alienated population has fueled support for militant groups as disillusionment with electoral politics grows. Amid economic turmoil and mounting threats from both separatist and Islamist militants, Pakistan's ability to contain the violence remains uncertain.

The ongoing insurgency in Balochistan is fueled by a complex interplay of factors, including resource exploitation, which has exacerbated economic disparities despite the province's vast natural gas reserves, as it receives minimal revenue in return. Military crackdowns, marked by reports of enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings by security forces, have deepened resentment and radicalized militants, further destabilizing the region. Additionally, the spillover from the Afghan War, particularly the influx of Pashtun refugees and Taliban militants, has heightened demographic tensions and security concerns. Compounding these issues are geopolitical interests, with Pakistan accusing India of supporting Baloch insurgents, a claim that not only intensifies the conflict but also further strains Indo-Pakistani relations. These factors create a volatile environment that perpetuates the insurgency and hinders efforts toward stability and development.

Despite having rich natural resources and strategic location, it remains one of Pakistan's most underdeveloped and volatile regions. A key driver of unrest is Islamabad's treatment of Balochistan as a resource-rich periphery, prioritized for extraction rather than development. Projects such as the Sui Gas Fields and the Saindak and Reko Diq mines generate significant revenue for the federal government, yet the province receives minimal returns. Despite constitutional provisions granting provinces control over their natural resources, Balochistan remains economically sidelined, deepening local resentment. Decades of unrest, marked by demands for autonomy and allegations of enforced disappearances, have fueled a prolonged separatist movement.

The erosion of federal autonomy has been exacerbated by repeated violations of constitutional principles, particularly those enshrined in the Eighteenth Amendment, which expanded provincial rights and devolved power. The current insurgency was sparked by President General Pervez Musharraf's unilateral decision in 2002 to construct Gwadar Port, which bypassed key constitutional structures, including the National Assembly, the Council of Common Interest, and the Balochistan Provincial government. The Baloch insurgency has the potential to destabilize South Asia. Escalation could lead to a fragmented Pakistan, impacting regional security and infrastructure projects, such as the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline. Moreover, the conflict threatens Indo-Pakistani peace efforts, with Pakistan accusing India of backing separatists, raising fears of proxy warfare.

Resolving the Balochistan insurgency will require meaningful political negotiations between the insurgents, Baloch political parties, activists, the army, and the federal government. While essential, such negotiations are increasingly complex. The Pakistani state's entrenched sense of superiority and colonial mindset has further exacerbated the crisis in Balochistan. While the frequency of attacks has declined, the rising fatalities are partially attributed to the insurgents' growing use of suicide attacks, which they perceive as a more effective means of resistance. Rather than learning from past failures, the military persists with its oppressive tactics, including the detention of critics without due process, forced disappearances, and extrajudicial killings in military camps. Since 2021, fatalities have steadily increased, reaching 322 in 2024. Past initiatives, such as the Aghaz-e-Haqooq reform package launched by President Asif Ali Zardari in 2009, addressed Baloch grievances by promoting demilitarization and creating more substantial economic opportunities. However, subsequent efforts, including those led by Balochistan Chief Minister Dr. Abdul Malik Baloch in 2015, largely failed due to the insurgents' deep mistrust of the government's ability to control its security forces.

The Baloch insurgency in Pakistan presents a multifaceted challenge with profound strategic, regional, security, and domestic implications. Strategically, the conflict poses a threat to the viability of key infrastructure projects, such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is central to both Pakistan’s economic ambitions and China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Regionally, the insurgency exacerbates tensions between Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran, with accusations of cross-border support for militants further destabilizing an already volatile neighborhood. Domestically, the Pakistani government’s reliance on military repression over political reconciliation has deepened grievances, fueling support for separatist groups and undermining efforts to achieve lasting peace. Addressing the root causes of the insurgency—through inclusive political dialogue, economic development, and respect for human rights—is essential not only for stabilizing Balochistan but also for ensuring Pakistan’s internal security and broader regional stability. Without meaningful reforms, the cycle of violence is likely to persist, with far-reaching consequences for South Asia and beyond.

Simon Mohsin: Political and International Affairs Analyst.