China-India rapprochement, Trump’s concerns, and the geopolitical equation in South Asia

By 2025, international politics has reached a turning point where "strategic distrust" is giving rise to new forms of "temporary alliances." Despite their historical rivalry, the recent closeness between China and India, India’s role in U.S. domestic politics, and the strategic importance of Bangladesh’s location in South Asia are all contributing to increasingly complex geopolitical equations. After the bitter relations following the 2020 Galwan Valley clashes, recent developments like the BRICS summit, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meetings, and bilateral border negotiations have transformed China-India relations into a form of “calculated coexistence.”

Let’s consider a few facts. In 2024, bilateral trade between India and China reached around USD 136 billion, with China being India’s top source of imports. Meanwhile, about 90% of the disputed border regions have now been designated as “buffer zones,” where both sides are exercising military restraint. Moreover, India has recently eased several restrictions on Chinese tech products, especially smartphones and solar panels. This development is not just economic—it also places pressure on the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific strategy.

In this context, J.D. Vance’s visit to India during Donald Trump’s ongoing campaign is not coincidental. In American diplomacy, it serves as a form of “symbolic deterrence”—an implicit expression of distrust toward growing China-India ties. Notably, during his visit, Vance signaled sympathy toward Hindu nationalism with two objectives:

1. To win support from Indian-American voters, a majority of whom traditionally vote Democrat. Trump aims to reverse that trend.
2. To build a global conservative coalition, comprising nations like the U.S., India, and Israel under shared conservative values.

India has now entered a phase of multifaceted foreign policy aimed at “maximizing diplomatic benefit while maintaining neutrality.” For example:

- In 2023, 45% of India's arms imports came from Russia, yet India remains involved in U.S. defense agreements like BECA and COMCASA.
- Despite border tensions, India continues to import goods worth $80 billion from China.
- Joint investment funds with Saudi Arabia and the UAE are being developed, with a target of around $10 billion by 2025.

This strategically suspended state may help India uphold independent policies, but it also increases security concerns for neighboring countries.

One of the most critical micro-venues in this strategic game is Bangladesh, particularly the Chattogram region and the Bay of Bengal. If Bangladesh ignores these strategic realities, it may not only be influenced but directly directed by external forces. Indian-Americans are becoming increasingly politically active in the U.S., and the Trump camp, identifying alignment in Hindu and conservative values, is aiming to court this voter base. Vance’s India visit also hints at the possibility of forming a “Global Conservative Alliance” uniting Indian Hindu nationalism, Israeli Zionist strategy, and American Christian conservatism under one umbrella.

The growing China-India ties are not only challenging America’s geopolitical calculations but are also paving the way for a new global alignment. This raises a crucial question: Where does Bangladesh stand in this equation, and how consciously is it defining its position? Competition between China and India over this region is intensifying. Sources suggest that if the corridor from Chattogram port to India's Northeast is implemented, India’s energy and supply costs could drop by up to 40%. On the other hand, under China's Belt and Road Initiative, the Kunming-Chattogram–South Bay of Bengal route is a possible trade link. India seeks exclusive influence in this race. Speculation is growing that instability could be deliberately stoked via the Arakan Army to justify strategic intervention in the Chattogram and Cox's Bazar regions—not just as a risk, but as a likely plan.

The tactical use of non-state actors could play a role here. A significant part of India’s security doctrine involves utilizing such actors—who are not official forces and can thus be disavowed diplomatically. Recent Arakan Army activity heightens these concerns. Over 25 clashes have taken place along the Myanmar border, affecting Bangladesh’s Naikhongchhari and Ruma areas. Although the source of their arms is uncertain, satellite imagery shows a logistic trail near India’s Mizoram border. Creating a security crisis under the guise of such armed groups is emerging as an unofficial strategy to enable strategic intervention.

Amid this complex political equation, Modi’s visit to Saudi Arabia is not just about energy politics—it’s a strategic effort to increase India’s role in Muslim world leadership. This could weaken Pakistan’s influence and have ripple effects in Bangladesh as well. Analysts believe India is nurturing ambitions to join the OIC by creating a "Muslim mold," aiming to emerge as a policy-shaping actor within Muslim-majority countries.

Given the current complexities, Bangladesh needs a dual-strategy one that maintains strategic neutrality while taking a firm stand on border security and internal stability. A “Strategic Monitoring Taskforce” focused on Chattogram and Cox’s Bazar should be formed to assess regional security issues. At the same time, commercial and security policies must be harmonized, ensuring no corridor or port deal compromises national security.

Bangladesh should also submit direct reports to the UN on groups like the Arakan Army and cross-border terrorism**, to build strategic sympathy and public opinion. Furthermore, Bangladesh must strengthen a regional dialogue platform like BIMSTEC to conduct parallel high-level dialogues with both China and India.

The closer China and India get, the more it challenges U.S. geopolitical calculations—and signals the beginning of a new polarization. South Asian nations—especially Bangladesh—have now become the focal point of this game. This is the moment to adopt a firm, data-driven, and multidimensional diplomatic approach. In the zero-sum game of modern geopolitics, if Bangladesh fails to establish a strong, interest-aligned position, it may have to defend its future not just with policy, but with its very sovereignty.

Chiroranjan Sarker: Columnist.