Despite disproving the Malthusian population theory, why is Bangladesh still considered a food-insecure country?

Renowned sociologist and demographer, Robert Malthus, stated in his famous population theory that "the population of a country increases geometrically," meaning it multiplies by factors like 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, and so on. Conversely, food production increases arithmetically, following a progression like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Industrial production also increases at a geometric rate similar to population growth. Therefore, for effective and sustainable economic development in any country, emphasis must be placed on industrial production first. If a country achieves self-sufficiency in industrial production, the demand for food by the population can be met through imports.

The Malthusian population theory is still widely accepted worldwide. However, some countries, like Bangladesh, have demonstrated that the theory may not hold true universally. Bangladesh has already proven that with innovative agricultural practices and opportunities for empowered farmers, the Malthusian population theory may be disproven.

In 1972, Bangladesh produced 1 crore 20 lakh metric tons of rice. At that time, the population of the country was approximately 7 crore. Now, Bangladesh's population is about 17 crore. Over the past 53 years, much agricultural land has been diverted for various reasons, especially for housing construction. Currently, the total land area in the country is 1 crore 47 lakh 57 thousand hectares. The amount of land per capita is only 0.09 hectares. 76% of the country's total land, which is 1 crore 12 lakh 40 thousand hectares, has been converted into wasteland. 79% of the total land, which is 1 crore 16 lakh 20 thousand hectares, lacks necessary natural organic fertilizers. Despite this, rice production has reached 3 crore 80 lakh metric tons. This means that since the mentioned time, the population of the country has increased by two and a half times, while food production has increased by nearly four times.

Bangladesh is traditionally an agrarian country. People in this region have been sustaining their lives and livelihoods through agriculture since ancient times. In Pakistan, as much as 80 percent of the population used to reside in rural areas, with agriculture being a significant part of the economy. About 85 percent of the national economy relied on rural agricultural activities. The most astonishing fact is that our country's farmers have no formal education or training. They are essentially self-taught agriculturists.

Once upon a time, when we talked about the agricultural system in our country, the image of two cows, a wooden plow, a top-notch sickle, and numerous toiling farmers would come to mind. It was these toiling farmers who, through their relentless efforts, ensured food security for us from time immemorial. Now, there has been a significant transformation in the agricultural system of the villages. Instead of the old-fashioned wooden plow, farmers are gradually leaning towards mechanized cultivation. As a result of agricultural mechanization, while the labor of farmers has decreased, production has increased.

Currently, there has been a significant increase in rural-to-urban migration. Approximately 35 percent of the total population now resides in urban areas. Moreover, the contribution of urban areas to the national economy has surged to around 64 percent. There is a continuous shift in rural economy as well. Previously, many affluent families used to reside in rural areas, but now, a significant portion of them are becoming landless and selling their land. Conversely, many financially disadvantaged individuals who previously had no landownership are now purchasing land. A few days ago, I visited my village. In the morning, I went to the field to see the land. There, an elderly person greeted me. He asked, "Have you recognized me, nephew?" Before I could say anything, he said, "I used to be a shepherd at your house." Then I remembered him. He continued, "My son have purchased this land of yours." He further explained, "My son had been abroad for quite a few years. He earned good money." I blessed him. This incident reflects the changing economic landscape of rural areas.

The current government announced plans to transform villages into urban areas during the 2018 national elections. However, even before that, most of Bangladesh's villages had been integrated into the facilities of urban life. This means that the same amenities available in cities are now accessible in villages. To uplift and make a population dynamic, it is imperative to ensure paved roads and electricity infrastructure. There is no need for much more than that. Nowadays, most rural homes have amenities such as refrigerators and televisions. Rural residents in Bangladesh now enjoy various facilities similar to those in cities. Bangladesh is currently leaning towards urbanization. The amount of food produced in Bangladesh far exceeds the population growth. However, Bangladesh is not becoming a food surplus country. Instead, it is transitioning into a food-insecure nation.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in its recent report has expressed concern about the food situation in Bangladesh. The organization stated that despite record-breaking food production in the country this year, a significant number of people could still fall into food insecurity. Many people inadvertently use the terms "food safety" and "safe food" interchangeably. However, there is a significant difference between these two terms. Safe food refers to food that is safe for human consumption, meaning it does not pose any harm or create any issues for the human body. If consuming food leads to any form of harm or problem for the human body, then it is not considered safe food. On the other hand, food safety refers to ensuring an adequate supply of food for everyone. Therefore, using the terms "food safety" and "safe food" interchangeably is not accurate at all.

The FAO has stated that despite abundant food production during the current season in Bangladesh, severe food insecurity may affect around 1 crore 25 lakh people. The organization further states that compared to the previous year, Bangladesh will import over 7 lakh 93 thousand tons of food. During the current season, Bangladesh may produce a record amount of Boro rice, estimated at 3 crore 10 lakh tons. The organization has found evidence through a survey conducted from May to September that around 1 crore 19 lakh people in Bangladesh may suffer from extreme food insecurity this year. This food insecurity situation will primarily arise due to a decrease in people's purchasing power. Even though there may be sufficient food availability in the market, people may not be able to afford it due to high prices.

In context, it is essential to mention that even though there may be food availability in the market, if people cannot afford to purchase it, it could lead to a famine situation. Famine does not occur solely due to the absence of food products in the market. When consumers' purchasing power decreases, it can also lead to the creation of a famine. In recent times, the most severe and frightening famines occurred in Bangladesh in 1943 and 1974. In his research book, a British government official, Abul Kalam Azad, mentioned that the famine of 1973 was primarily caused not just by food scarcity but rather by the lack of purchasing power among people. During that time, there was a shortage of food products in the market for several weeks. The Second World War was ongoing, and English soldiers were stationed in Kolkata. The government had to procure extra food for these soldiers, leading to rumors spreading. People, fearing a shortage of even their basic food necessities, started hoarding large amounts of food. The entire population of Bengal became panicked, exacerbating the food crisis. Millions of people died of starvation.

The famine that occurred in 1974 in independent Bangladesh was more attributable to the breakdown of the food supply system than just food scarcity. Local leaders at various levels confiscated food products from the market. Hoarding became rampant, leading to skyrocketing prices. As a result, people were dying due to starvation.

Some individuals at the leading level have claimed recently that efforts are being made to induce famine in the country. Their statements cannot be overlooked in any way. While there may not be any current food shortages in the country, there are indeed problems with food distribution and accessibility to the general population. Initiatives need to be taken by the government to break down active business syndicates in the market. Otherwise, this selfish group could cause any incident to occur. As the saying goes, a stitch in time saves nine. Therefore, it's crucial to remain vigilant when there's still time.

Author: Retired General Manager, Bangladesh Development Bank Limited, and an economics writer.