Dr. Yunus: The right person to break the deadlock

Chief Adviser Dr. Muhammad Yunus has emphasized the importance of establishing a joint economy comprising Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Bhutan. According to him, Bangladesh holds strategic importance for both China and India due to its geographical location. In addition to geography, Bangladesh has a vast population, which he no longer considers a burden. He believes that the enthusiasm displayed by Bangladesh’s youth in July and August should be harnessed to open doors for them to conquer the world. In the realm of international trade, Nepal, Bhutan, and India’s northeastern states—often referred to as the Seven Sisters—lack direct access to a seaport. By using Bangladesh’s ports, they stand to benefit, just as Bangladesh can benefit by importing hydropower from Nepal. Dr. Yunus has expressed his desire to meet Bangladesh’s current and future energy demands by utilizing the hydropower generated from the Himalayan waters. Reportedly, Nepal is eager to supply this electricity, and Dr. Yunus is keen to capitalize on this opportunity.

However, implementing this vision will not be easy. To reach Nepal via India, Bangladesh must traverse a 54-kilometer stretch of Indian territory. Alternatively, constructing roads through the mountainous regions would significantly increase the distance. The ‘Chicken’s Neck’ corridor, which links Bangladesh to Nepal and Bhutan, is only 20 kilometers wide. The Awami League government has held numerous negotiations with India to establish direct land trade routes with Nepal, but India has not yet granted approval. The primary reason is that this transit route poses a strategic security threat to India, not only because it serves as an access point for Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh but also because Indian security forces consider it even more sensitive than Kashmir due to potential threats from China.

In 2018, Bangladesh and Nepal signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for electricity imports. Six years later, in November, Bangladesh finally started receiving 40 megawatts of electricity through the Indian grid. The interim government is now working to increase this supply. This hydropower is economically favorable for Bangladesh, costing approximately 7 BDT per unit. In comparison, coal-based power plants in Bangladesh generate electricity at an average cost of 11.02 BDT per unit, while electricity imported from most Indian plants (excluding Adani) costs around 8.74 BDT per unit. The production cost of electricity in Bangladesh varies depending on the fuel source—electricity generated from domestic natural gas costs around 5 BDT per unit, whereas oil-based power costs nearly 20 BDT per unit.

Adani’s coal-based power plant, built on 425 hectares of land in Godda, Jharkhand, India, at a cost of $2 billion, was initially supplying 1,400–1,500 megawatts of electricity to Bangladesh daily under a 25-year contract. However, due to unpaid dues amounting to 100 billion BDT, Adani shut down one unit of the plant. Initially, concerns were raised about Bangladesh becoming overly dependent on Indian electricity, as it would mean that India would control the power switch. However, since the power plants are located in India, Bangladesh benefits by avoiding the environmental damage caused by coal combustion. Additionally, land scarcity in Bangladesh has prevented the construction of large-scale power plants—efforts to build the Rampal power plant faced strong opposition due to concerns about the Sundarbans, and resistance to power plants in Maheshkhali even resulted in casualties.

Following the formation of the interim government, a committee was established under the directive of the High Court to review and reassess the agreement with Adani. Energy adviser Fauzul Kabir Khan announced that Bangladesh would not pay excessive prices for the coal used in Adani’s power plant and assured that no power producer would be allowed to hold Bangladesh hostage. He also stated that the interim government was exploring alternative energy sources. Initially, his strong stance against Adani was met with public enthusiasm, but that excitement soon faded. Despite his initial claims, he later traveled to India for discussions with Adani and ultimately agreed to procure all the electricity generated from the plant. If Adani’s electricity was not essential, why did he negotiate? And if it was necessary, why was there so much initial opposition?

According to the Power Division, peak summer electricity demand in Bangladesh is around 17,500 megawatts, while the maximum production capacity is 16,477 megawatts, despite an installed generation capacity of 31,145 megawatts. The Awami League government constructed numerous power plants over the past 15 years, leading some to speculate that these projects were driven by commission-based business deals rather than necessity. If these allegations were true, why is Dr. Yunus now advocating for increased imports of electricity from Nepal? The sad reality is that despite having such a high installed capacity, Bangladesh still experiences power outages even during winter. Is this a failure of the interim government? As laypersons with limited technical knowledge, it is difficult for us to comprehend these issues. The energy adviser mentioned that Bangladesh would not face problems even without Adani’s electricity, yet local power plants are unable to operate due to coal shortages. The reasons behind this coal shortage remain unclear.

In Bangladesh, it has become a common practice to oppose any major initiative. Even so-called expert intellectuals contribute to this culture. They argue against coal-fired power plants due to environmental concerns, oppose nuclear power plants due to safety risks, and insist on renewable energy solutions. However, Bangladesh lacks the necessary wind speeds for large-scale wind power generation, as evidenced by the failed attempts in Kutubdia. Solar power, while an alternative, requires vast amounts of land—producing one megawatt of solar power requires approximately 2.25 acres of land and costs about 80 million BDT. If the land used for the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant were instead covered with solar panels, it would generate only 8 megawatts of electricity. Meanwhile, thousands of people remain displaced due to the Karnaphuli hydropower project.

Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world, with limited available land. Listening to some intellectuals, one might think that the best way forward is to return to primitive living in caves. The power sector was severely neglected during the BNP’s rule from 2001 to 2006, when only 80 megawatts were added to the national grid in five years. During that time, people protested for electricity in Kansat, Chapai Nawabganj, and demonstrated violently in Dhaka’s Shanir Akhra, forcing BNP MP Salauddin Ahmed to flee. The Awami League, upon assuming power, prioritized electricity generation, leading to remarkable economic growth. Even BNP acknowledges this, though they claim that these mega projects were marred by massive corruption. Regardless, the expansion of the economy necessitates an increased supply of electricity. The Awami League government was developing 100 economic zones, which would house numerous local and foreign factories, further escalating electricity demand.

In this era of rapid technological advancement, electricity is the backbone of modern civilization. Without it, life comes to a standstill. Importing power from Nepal will inevitably involve India, as it controls the transmission routes. Therefore, instead of fostering psychological resistance, Bangladesh must build strong ties with India. Every political faction understands this but refuses to acknowledge it due to vote-driven rhetoric fueled by emotional nationalism. Dr. Yunus is the right person to break this deadlock, as even those who oppose India without reason have trust in him.

Ziauddin Ahmed: Former Executive Director, Bangladesh Bank.