How logical is the fear of civil war in Bangladesh?

Recently, during a conversation with a close acquaintance, he mentioned that his daughter, who lives in the United States, had asked him whether a civil war was imminent in Bangladesh. She had heard about the emergence of several armed groups in the country, allegedly using weapons looted from police stations during the July uprising. These groups are said to be attempting to create chaos, disrupt elections, and push the country toward civil war. Not only that, but his daughter also advised him to prepare to move to the village for safety.

It is often said that when people live abroad, their connection to their homeland intensifies. They tend to feel and miss their country even more. As the expatriate poet Mujib Iram wrote in one of his poems: "While living abroad, I dwell in my own land."

The fear and concern expressed by this young woman, thousands of miles away, may now be shared by many who are closely observing the country’s situation or have inside knowledge of unfolding events. The activities of extremist groups and the government's seemingly lenient stance towards them are further amplifying these fears.

No one desires a civil war in a country of nearly 200 million people. If such a scenario unfolds, it will indiscriminately affect people of all political affiliations, religious beliefs, and ethnic backgrounds.

On February 21, at an event in Banani, Dhaka, marking International Mother Language Day, Jatiya Party Chairman GM Quader said, "People in the country are being subjected to various forms of oppression. The interim government is not ensuring security. If this situation continues, the country may descend into civil war." (Jamuna Television, February 21, 2025).

Similarly, Nasiruddin Patwary, leader of the newly formed Jatiya Nagorik Party, recently stated at an event in Dhaka that if the interim government fails to prosecute those responsible for the killings during the July coup, people will take to the streets again, potentially leading to civil war.

A civil war is an internal conflict within a country, where different factions engage in armed confrontations. It occurs when a nation becomes so politically divided that opposing groups perceive their own ideologies as the only truth and view the elimination of dissenters as justified. This type of war spreads across communities, pitting brother against brother, coworker against coworker, leading to national devastation. Civil wars not only destabilize a country internally but also pose threats to regional and global security.

History has shown that civil wars have profoundly impacted the political, economic, and social structures of many nations. Notable examples include Sudan, Rwanda, Syria, Libya, and Yemen. Several films depict the horrors of civil war, such as Hotel Rwanda (2004) and Sometimes in April (2005) on the Rwandan genocide, The Good Lie (2014) on South Sudan’s conflict, and For Sama (2019) on Syria’s war.

Several factors can lead to civil war, including power Struggles & Electoral Disputes: Conflicts between authoritarianism and democracy, as well as election-related irregularities, can spark civil unrest.

Ethnic & Religious Conflicts: Many civil wars have erupted due to tensions between ethnic and religious groups.

Economic Inequality & Unemployment: Unequal wealth distribution, poverty, and lack of job opportunities often contribute to internal conflicts.

Post-Colonial Instability: Some countries have faced turmoil after gaining independence from colonial rule.

Foreign Interference: External powers meddling in a nation’s affairs can escalate conflicts into full-fledged civil wars.

One of the major reasons for concern in Bangladesh is the large number of weapons looted from police stations during the July uprising. These weapons remain unaccounted for, raising fears of their potential use in criminal activities.

It is unlikely that ordinary citizens were involved in looting these weapons or storing them in their homes. So, who stole them, and where are they now? Are they being used to train militants and destabilize the country? Was the police station attack and weapon looting part of a long-term strategy?

In September 2024, citing police headquarters, media reports revealed that 5,829 firearms and 606,742 rounds of ammunition were looted from various police stations and institutions. Of these, only 3,763 firearms and 286,082 rounds of ammunition had been recovered, leaving 2,066 firearms and 320,660 rounds of ammunition unaccounted for (The Daily Star, September 4, 2024).

Three months later, another report stated that about 1,500 firearms and over 250,000 rounds of ammunition remained missing. Some of these weapons have already been used in crimes, such as the murder of a young woman in Munshiganj and multiple shootings in Geneva Camp, Dhaka (Prothom Alo, December 11, 2024).

On February 12, 2025, in response to a journalist’s question, Home Affairs Adviser Jahangir Alam Chowdhury acknowledged that despite the launch of Operation Devil Hunt to improve law and order, the recovery of looted weapons had not been satisfactory. However, he assured that all illegal weapons would eventually be seized (Independent Television, February 12, 2025).

Research suggests that civil wars can be prevented through several measures, including establishing Democratic Governance and Political Stability: Ensuring good governance and fair elections can mitigate the risk of civil conflict.

Promoting Ethnic and Religious Tolerance: Fostering inter-group harmony can reduce sectarian tensions.

Economic Development and Job Creation: Addressing poverty and unemployment can lower social unrest.

Diplomatic Conflict Resolution: Engaging international organizations to mediate internal disputes.

Preventing Foreign Interference: Reducing external influence and resolving domestic issues through local means.

While Bangladesh has long been politically divided, the nation also has a deep-rooted culture of religious tolerance and social harmony. The country is home to devout religious believers as well as followers of Baul and Sufi traditions. Despite political differences, Bangladeshis have strong family values and a culture of collective living. In times of crisis, they support one another.

Since essential services like healthcare and security are not yet fully guaranteed by the state, mutual assistance among citizens remains a major strength. In most parts of the country, an ailing person will always find helping hands to take them to the hospital. This inherent kindness and solidarity may ultimately shield Bangladesh from the horrors of civil war.

It is important to remember that while Bangladeshis are religious, they are not radical extremists. Those attempting to spread extremism in the name of religion will ultimately fail. Regardless of political ideologies, in the end, humanity will prevail—this is the hope that keeps us going.

Ameen Al Rashid: Journalist & Writer.