India-Pakistan conflict may deeply impact Bangladesh, regional politics

Tensions between India and Pakistan are nothing new. Since their independence, the two nuclear-armed neighbors have fought multiple wars over Kashmir, border disputes, terrorism, and political divisions. In the current context, if a full-scale war breaks out, its consequences would extend far beyond the two countries—Bangladesh and the entire South Asian region could be severely affected. Experts warn that Bangladesh could face serious challenges in terms of its economy, security, refugee management, diplomatic relations, and overall regional stability.

Economic Impact

Bangladesh conducts nearly USD 12 billion in annual trade with India, most of which involves imports from India. In the event of war, disruption in the supply of goods from India could lead to shortages in essential sectors such as raw materials, pharmaceuticals, agricultural products, and electronics. This would drive up inflation and destabilize local markets.

Major South Asian regional transport routes—such as Benapole, Chattogram Port, and the Agartala corridor—that link Bangladesh with India and Pakistan may become inactive during wartime. This could wreak havoc on domestic industries, particularly the garment and construction sectors.

A regional war could also make South Asia appear as a “red zone” to foreign investors, leading to a significant decline in foreign direct investment (FDI). Joint tourism ventures and religious pilgrimage routes involving India would likely be suspended, resulting in billions of taka in losses.

Security and Military Pressure

Should war break out, India is likely to enhance security along its eastern borders, which could have direct consequences for Bangladesh. Increased activity by the Border Security Force (BSF) would hinder the movement of people and goods across the India-Bangladesh border. The Bangladeshi government might also be compelled to deploy additional forces along the frontier.

In times of war, extremist groups often attempt to exploit instability. Within the context of an India-Pakistan conflict, dormant sleeper cells and militant networks in Bangladesh could re-emerge. Pro-Pakistan extremist groups such as Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen and Hizb ut-Tahrir may become more active again.

Refugee Crisis and Humanitarian Burden

One of the gravest humanitarian consequences of a war could be a refugee crisis. Much like in 1971, when millions sought refuge in India, a modern conflict could push thousands of people from Pakistan’s Punjab and Kashmir regions to flee—some possibly entering Bangladesh through India to escape violence.

Bangladesh is already hosting more than 1.1 million Rohingya refugees. A fresh influx of displaced persons due to an India-Pakistan war could prompt the UN and other global bodies to pressure Bangladesh to shoulder additional humanitarian responsibilities—further straining the country’s economy and social structure.

Political and Diplomatic Challenges

Bangladesh would have to maintain extreme diplomatic caution during any conflict. Siding with one party could damage relations with the other. Given that India is Bangladesh’s key economic and strategic partner, it cannot be alienated. However, domestic political sentiments often call for expressions of solidarity with Pakistan, given the country’s Muslim-majority population.

Bangladesh may find itself in a precarious position in global forums like the OIC, UN, and SAARC, having to carefully balance its stance. Coordinating peace efforts between both sides while maintaining neutrality would be immensely challenging.

Collapse of SAARC and Regional Integration

A war between India and Pakistan would effectively paralyze the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), cutting Bangladesh off from regional economic, social, and political linkages. In such a scenario, Bangladesh would need to strengthen alternative platforms like BIMSTEC.

During wartime, Indian television channels and entertainment content, such as Bollywood films, might be banned in Bangladesh. While this would reduce cultural dependency, it could also pressure local media industries to meet rising viewer demand.

Every year, nearly half a million Bangladeshis travel to India for medical treatment. If war halts this flow, Bangladesh’s already stretched healthcare system would face additional pressure. The country would need to make emergency preparations in the health sector. However, due to India’s current visa restrictions, the number of Bangladeshi medical travelers has already declined significantly.

A conflict could also disrupt oil and energy supply routes across South Asia and the Middle East, causing fuel prices to rise globally. This would directly affect the cost of diesel, petrol, and cooking gas in Bangladesh.

The Nuclear Threat

The most alarming possibility is the risk of nuclear escalation. If the war spirals out of control, the use of nuclear weapons cannot be ruled out. This would cause a devastating environmental and public health crisis across South Asia. Bangladesh could face severe air and water pollution, and radioactive fallout could trigger acid rain and other ecological disasters.

The repercussions of an India-Pakistan war would not remain confined to these two countries alone. Regional politics, economies, security, human rights, and the environment—all would be affected. For Bangladesh, it would pose an immense diplomatic and humanitarian challenge. To safeguard national interests, Bangladesh must proactively participate in regional peace efforts and begin preparing on all fronts—economic resilience, border security, refugee management, and international diplomacy.

Dr. Imtiaz Ahmed, Professor of International Relations at the University of Dhaka, said that Bangladesh holds a geographically strategic position, and any military tension or conflict between India and Pakistan would have direct or indirect economic repercussions for the country.

He said that Bangladesh maintains trade relations with both India and Pakistan, and during wartime, border security and communication issues could disrupt this trade.

He added that during any war, international investors usually seek to withdraw from high-risk regions, which could economically impact Bangladesh as well.

According to Dr. Ahmed, if connectivity between South Asia and the Middle East is disrupted due to the conflict, the cost of energy imports may rise, which would affect the domestic market in Bangladesh. In the case of a prolonged war, a refugee crisis may emerge from border regions, putting humanitarian and economic pressure on Bangladesh.

Khalilur Rahman, National Security Adviser to the interim government, said that Bangladesh is closely monitoring whether the India-Pakistan conflict affects import and export operations through Indian airspace. He emphasized that Bangladesh believes the issue should be resolved through diplomatic dialogue. The country hopes that tensions between India and Pakistan will ease, leading to a return to peace and stability in the region.