Interim government's failure threatens alternative governance ideas

Dr. Muhammad Yunus, the head of the interim government, has grand aspirations based on the recommendations of various commissions. He believes that the charter created by the consensus of political parties, excluding the Awami League, will be inviolable and eternal, and no political party will be able to deviate from it. While Dr. Yunus is a knowledgeable and accomplished individual, it is necessary to assess his political maturity. Lacking experience in the intricate realities of politics, he seems to be more inclined towards dreaming than dealing with the practicalities of implementing those dreams. From this desire, he wants to leave behind some directives for the nation. However, it is difficult to predict the longevity of the charter once signed in agreement.

Instead of a charter for nation-building, it will be challenging to keep the people of the country satisfied by simply focusing on plans to contain the Awami League. Everyone is now talking about an opposition unity against the Awami League. However, despite 15 years of effort, the Awami League has not been able to eliminate the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami. It is not easy to erase a political party through state power and repression unless the people reject it. Even in much harsher conditions, the Awami League has survived. Like the BNP, the Awami League has its share of corrupt individuals, bribe-takers, terrorists, and money launderers, but it also has numerous innocent supporters. This reality can be verified simply by looking at the results of elections held under a caretaker government. In the 1991 election, BNP received 30.08 per cent of the votes, while Awami League got 30.01 per cent; in 1996, Awami League received 37.4 per cent, and BNP 33.6 per cent; in 2001, BNP secured 40.97 per cent while Awami League got 40.13 per cent; and in the 2008 election, Awami League got 49.0 per cent and BNP 33.2 per cent. Yet, despite all of this, the Awami League remains inactive today.

There are demands to ban the Awami League, with some advocating for a suspension of their political activities for at least three years. Even if the Awami League is allowed to participate in the upcoming elections, it seems unlikely they will be given a fair chance to campaign. Just as the BNP does not want a prominent presence of the Awami League in the election, they are also not in favor of excluding them entirely. This is because the absence of 30-40 per cent of voters in the BNP’s expected victory would, just like during the Awami League era, raise questions about the legitimacy of the election. Therefore, in order to ensure the safety of its tenure, the BNP sees the participation of the Awami League as essential for the election. To make the election internationally acceptable, the involvement of the Awami League is crucial for the BNP.

The BNP may also have another reason for wanting the Awami League in the elections: ensuring political accountability from all parties to restore political discipline in the country. If the Awami League is denied normal political opportunities, they may resort to abnormal means, which could create difficulties for the BNP. For the past six months, an abnormal environment has prevailed in the country due to the government's inactivity. A mere pressure group of students can force the government to yield to their demands swiftly. Seeing the disrespect and disregard for the police by students, others are becoming bolder, taking their demands to the streets, organizing marches, and blocking important roads, paralysing Dhaka. The law enforcement agencies are no longer able to act as they did before. If the police return to using batons, rubber bullets, hot water, or, in extreme cases, live ammunition, the interim government will be labeled as ‘autocratic’. The next elected government will face the same situation. Considering all these factors, the BNP may be in favor of bringing the Awami League into the elections. Despite this, the BNP is adopting a Chanakya strategy towards the Awami League – while some top leaders are showing a slightly lenient attitude towards them, grassroots workers are actively resisting the Awami League across the country.

Recently, there have been noticeable differences and disputes among the unwritten united alliance partners over various issues. The interim government and its allies are anxious about the resurgence of the Awami League. Therefore, other parties, except for the BNP, are in favor of completing the trials and putting the Awami League behind bars before the election. However, the BNP wants the necessary reforms for a free, fair, and acceptable election to be completed before the election is held as soon as possible. On the other hand, students and coordinators believe that the inability to rewrite the constitution to bury the ‘Mujibist Constitution’, the suspension of the process to ban the Awami League, the failure to remove the president, and the cancellation of the proposal to form a national government, among other issues, were due to the lack of BNP’s support. The coordinators of the anti-discrimination student movement cannot tolerate the fact that the Awami League, BNP, and India are speaking in unison.

Despite many benefits during the interim government period, the BNP is in favor of early elections. This is because it has become increasingly difficult to manage its activists. The BNP had expected that the anti-discrimination students would support them, but the situation is the complete opposite. As time goes on, the students are gradually leaning towards Islamist parties. The possibility of forming a political party with students and coordinators has led to extreme disappointment within the BNP. In order to prevent anti-discrimination students from forming a new party, BNP's student wing Chhatradal is obstructing the coordinators' gatherings outside Dhaka, according to the coordinators' allegations.

Upon sensing the possibility of the anti-discrimination students forming a party, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam no longer considers the current interim government to be neutral in conducting the election. However, Advisor Nahid Islam has clearly stated that all parties are partners in the current government, and all sides are enjoying various benefits. This is not incorrect, as people from the BNP and Jamaat are being acquitted from cases and are being posted in various sectors across the country.

BNP and Jamaat want all cases against Awami League leaders and activists to be filed during the interim government’s tenure, with these leaders facing torture and harassment under this regime. Once cases are filed during this period, the next government will not be held accountable for them. Their actions suggest that it is difficult to distinguish between enemies and allies in the political arena, as an enemy can instantly become an ally. The long-standing alliance between BNP and Jamaat is slowly drifting apart, while their closeness with the anti-discrimination students is growing. The interim government, BNP, and Jamaat are speaking differently, not due to ideological conflict, but due to conflicting interests. Interestingly, when it comes to the Awami League, they unite in an instant. Currently, the Awami League is the only target that keeps them united.

The fear of Awami League or the phobia of its resurgence has become the driving force behind the unity, while there is no genuine effort to unite against issues like corruption, bribery, and money laundering. The interim government’s instability due to the fear of Awami League has led to the fostering of anarchy and terrorism in the country. This leniency could ultimately backfire, potentially causing the interim government or the next political government to collapse. Instead of merely uniting and exposing their weaknesses, the interim government's goal should be to win the people's hearts through effective action. Dr. Muhammad Yunus had sown seeds of great expectations in the minds of the people; however, in the past six months, there has been no sign of those expectations being fulfilled. If the interim government could only inspire hope for fulfilling the people's expectations, no one would have the desire to demand elections. No one wishes for the failure of the interim government, but if it repeatedly falters, it will kill the people's alternative vision for governing the state.

Zeauddin Ahmed: Former Executive Director, Bangladesh Bank