Is Bangladesh's food security really at risk?

If the news is true, it is indeed alarming. Bangladesh ranks among the top ten countries facing food insecurity. According to a report from the Global Report on Food Crises 2024, published in Bonn, Germany, Bangladesh is eighth in the list of countries experiencing prolonged food insecurity. The summary of this index states that nearly 176 million people, or 62.5 percent of the total population in 59 countries, are facing severe long-term food insecurity, with some requiring urgent humanitarian assistance. In this context, the top ten countries are Congo, Nigeria, Sudan, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Yemen, Syria, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Myanmar.

It is notable that four of the top ten countries, including the top three, are in Africa, a continent long plagued by socio-economic crises. There are countries like Afghanistan, Yemen, and Syria, which are victims of internal crises and global politics. Also included are Myanmar, suffering under military rule, and Pakistan, often referred to as a "failed state." How, then, did Bangladesh, known for its fertile land and favorable climate, make it to this list? This raises a significant question. A report titled "The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2019," published on July 15, 2019, by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the World Health Organization (WHO), UNICEF, and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), noted that the number of hungry people worldwide is increasing, posing a challenge to achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of zero hunger by 2030.

Since early 2022, FAO and the World Food Programme (WFP) have been warning of severe food shortages in 45 countries in 2023, which could leave at least 276 million people in dire food crises. In light of this, Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has also emphasized the global challenges to food security and advised utilizing every inch of arable land. She has even urged preparedness for famine-like situations, though her use of the word "famine" has drawn criticism. However, she mentioned it in the context of global challenges, urging preparation to avoid or mitigate potential threats to food security in Bangladesh.

Looking back, in 1972, the country produced 11 million tons of food grains for a population of 75 million. Now, with over 170 million people (according to census data, the number is slightly lower), the population has more than doubled in the last half-century. Various statistics indicate that arable land has decreased by about 30 percent due to housing, industries, offices, roads, and other infrastructure developments. However, food grain production has increased three to five times. Despite global political crises and adverse weather effects due to climate change, there is no famine-like food crisis in the country. While people are dissatisfied with the high prices of daily essentials, no recent news reports indicate deaths from starvation. This means that despite various socio-economic and political challenges, Bangladesh's food security has not reached an alarming level. But is the data in the Global Report on Food Crises then unfounded?
A report published in October 2023 from the Prime Minister's Office titled "Changing Landscape (2006 to 2023)" shows that Bangladesh has made significant progress in agriculture, fisheries, and livestock production. For instance, Bangladesh ranks third globally in the production of rice, vegetables, and onions, seventh in potatoes and mangoes, first in hilsa fish, third in freshwater and farmed fish, and twelfth in livestock. The Ministry of Food's annual report (2022-23) states that the maximum food grain stock in this fiscal year was 2,077,500 metric tons, and the minimum was 1,567,382 metric tons.

Agriculture is one of the sectors in which Bangladesh has genuinely developed over the last half-century, with no disagreement. Scientific advancements and farmers' tireless efforts have enabled multiple crops to be grown on the same land, sometimes up to four times a year. Flood, drought, and salt-tolerant crops are being cultivated. Bangladesh has also shown success in long-term food security. Among South Asian countries, Bangladesh has made the most progress in the hunger index. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) report from 2013 shows that Bangladesh advanced 11 steps in this index within a year.

So, why did Bangladesh, despite this progress, rank eighth in the list of countries with the highest food insecurity? Is this credible? How did a country often described as self-sufficient in food end up on this list? If this information is accurate, it is indeed concerning for a country of 170-180 million people. The report mentions that high costs of fuel and fertilizers, currency devaluation, supply chain issues, high food prices, and inflation directly impact food security. Additionally, monsoon floods, extreme weather, and cyclones are perennial concerns. While the lack of specific data makes it difficult to assess the potential risks for Bangladesh in the current year, the report suggests that in 2024, a slowdown in GDP growth, low foreign currency reserves, and import restrictions could impact private investment. Moreover, over 20 percent of the population reportedly suffers from chronic food insecurity.

In conclusion, while other countries' assessments are based on specific data, there is a conceptual vagueness regarding Bangladesh. How, then, was Bangladesh included in the top ten countries with the highest food insecurity without "necessary data"? This is a question. However, setting this report aside, it is clear that internal and external factors could pose long-term threats to Bangladesh's food security. Rapid development activities and the easy availability of sand are causing the filling up of lowlands and farmland. Effective steps should have been taken long ago to address what the country's situation might be in the next 20 years.

The Prime Minister constantly emphasizes protecting agricultural land, but the reflection of these directives at the grassroots level is questionable. As Bangladesh transitions from an agricultural to an industrial economy, and as unplanned urbanization reduces arable land, the country could indeed face food security risks. For several years, it has been said that farming is becoming unprofitable, and farmers lack social status. Therefore, people's interest in farming is waning. Farmers' children do not want to be farmers; they are more interested in jobs, business, or becoming expatriate workers. The main reasons are economic and social prestige. While many educated young people are now interested in modern farming and high-value crops, the overall number of farmers and agricultural workers is decreasing.

Modern, mechanized farming reduces the demand for farmers and agricultural workers, which is true. Still, the rising cost of agricultural inputs is a major concern. If production costs rise and farmers do not receive commensurate prices, interest in farming will decline, threatening long-term food security. Many essential food crops might have to be imported, despite being producible in Bangladesh. However, it can still be confidently said that Bangladesh's risk of becoming food insecure is low. The main concern is safe food. While there may not be a food shortage leading to famine, questions remain about the safety and purity of available food. The excessive use of fertilizers and pesticides in food production, and chemicals to preserve fish, meat, vegetables, and fruits, pose health risks, raising questions about state control over these practices.

Secondly, the major problem in Bangladesh's agriculture is the market system. Middlemen and various forms of extortion cause the prices of produced goods to rise significantly by the time they reach consumers. For example, bitter gourds sold at 20 taka per kilogram in Bogra are sold at 80 to 100 taka in Dhaka. This "system loss" needs to be addressed. Without strict oversight and state control in these areas, it will become difficult for many people to afford food, despite its availability. If a significant portion of people's income is spent just to ensure minimum nutritional food, it is also a form of insecurity.

Therefore, regardless of what global reports say about Bangladesh's food security or its ranking on such lists, the government's primary responsibility is to ensure that even the lowest-income individuals, including those unable to earn, have guaranteed access to at least the minimum necessary food for survival. While large infrastructure projects might make development visible, if people cannot afford basic necessities in the market, this development cannot be deemed sustainable. Development should not solely benefit the government, ruling party leaders, engineers, contractors, and suppliers of construction materials. Instead, the true beneficiaries of development should be the marginalized people of the country. The most fundamental requirement for them is food. Thus, ensuring food security and safe food is the first and foremost duty of the state.

Author: Journalist and writer