Is Trump’s aggression real or just a political bluff?

Donald Trump took office as the President of the United States on January 20. In just a short period, he has made numerous orders and expressed intentions to make several decisions that have shocked many worldwide. He has been issuing threats and making bold statements. Already, he has taken so many actions that many consider unusual. No US president in recent history has taken so many significant steps right after taking office, nor has any president threatened other countries in this way. Some critics have even compared him to Adolf Hitler, calling him an extreme nationalist. Among his most controversial decisions are taking control of the war-torn Gaza Strip and relocating its residents, making Canada the 51st US state (often referring to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as 'Governor'), imposing high tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, shut down USAID, deporting illegal immigrants from the US, attempting to acquire Greenland from Denmark, reclaiming control over the Panama Canal, offering military aid to Ukraine in exchange for mineral resources, and restrict access to intelligence information for former President Biden, among many other actions.

Although Donald Trump has backed off on some of his statements or intentions, there is no certainty that he will back down on several issues, and the direction in which these matters will lead global politics remains uncertain. These issues are significant and pose threats to the sovereignty of several countries. On the other hand, while these matters may seem astonishing and unacceptable to the rest of the world, they may not be viewed the same way by the majority of the US population. It is precisely this perspective that led American citizens to vote Trump and his party (Congress and the Senate) into power, sending them to the White House. For Trump to implement his long-standing "America First" agenda, he will need to take many steps that might be unwelcome in the rest of the world.

One of the most critical and sensitive decision he has taken up is regarding the situation in the Gaza Strip. Why did he make such a drastic decision regarding Gaza? One thing is clear to both Trump’s supporters and critics: he is clear about what he thinks and wants. He doesn't pretend. For a long time, Trump has personally supported Israel, particularly Prime Minister Netanyahu. Officially, the US has supported Israel's existence and military victories, but the Democrats have not allowed Israel to do whatever it wanted. They have sought to control Israel and maintain a balance with the rest of the Middle East, excluding Iran. This has often led to strained relations between Netanyahu and Democratic administrations. However, Trump's stance on the Israel-Palestine issue has been quite clear. Upon taking office, he recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel—something the Democrats never did, nor did previous administrations from his own party.

Now, it seems unlikely that Trump will back down from his plan to relocate Palestinians from Gaza. Although many major countries, including those in the Middle East, Europe, and even the United Nations, have rejected this plan, there is doubt about how long they will be able to hold firm on their decisions. Among the strong Arab nations, Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia are particularly aligned with the US. The US provides significant military aid to Egypt, and President al-Sisi's hold on power is largely due to American support. Therefore, it is unlikely that Egypt can firmly reject the US. The military security of Saudi Arabia is also heavily reliant on the US. Secondly, the central power in Saudi Arabia rests with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has close ties with Trump. Therefore, it remains uncertain how much he will prioritize Palestinian interests. On the other hand, Jordan hosts a large number of Palestinians and supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood, most of whom are opposed to King Abdullah II. However, as a state, Jordan is dependent on US military and financial aid. Even if Jordan says "no" to the US control over Gaza, it is unclear how effective this opposition will be.

Jordan had also protested when Jerusalem was recognized as Israel's capital, but this had little impact on its relationship with the US. From 2016 to 2020, there was a slight deterioration in relations with the Trump administration, but they improved once Biden came into power. The Biden administration, however, did not reverse the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital, a move Jordan had to accept. Now, President Trump has been mentioning various locations for the potential relocation of Gaza’s population, but it is clear that he is searching for an appropriate place to move them. Trump is such a staunch supporter of Netanyahu that he imposed executive orders to ban the International Criminal Court (ICC). He has called this organization illegal and baseless. It is worth noting that the ICC had issued an arrest warrant against Netanyahu, and now, this organization itself is facing threats.

Another issue is Greenland. Although Greenland was previously directly governed by Denmark, it is now an autonomous territory of Denmark. During his first term, in 2019, Trump had proposed acquiring Greenland, meaning purchasing it from Denmark. However, his election campaign took precedence at that time, and the plan was sidelined. Now, after entering the White House again, he has revived his old intention with even more determination, including threatening to use force if necessary. This is not entirely unusual for several reasons. The US has a history of acquiring territories. In 1803, they purchased the Louisiana Territory from France, in 1867 they bought Alaska from Russia, and even California, Utah, Nevada, and Arizona were purchased from Mexico. Trump's interest in Greenland is not just about its mineral resources or land; he sees it as crucial for US security. The commercial presence of Russia and China in the Arctic region, along Greenland’s coastline, continues to grow. As a staunch advocate of "America First," Trump is unlikely to compromise on this issue. He is expected to exert pressure on Denmark in the near future, creating challenges for Denmark and Europe. Moreover, Trump has already threatened to break up NATO or reduce the US's contributions to the alliance. Interestingly, Greenland’s population is small—only about 57,000 people, mostly living in ice-covered areas. However, a portion of this population has shown no objection to potentially uniting with the US. The key question now is whether Trump truly wants to take full control of Greenland, or whether he aims to pressure Denmark, particularly to reduce the movement of Chinese ships and trade.

Trump's strict immigration policies have caused dissatisfaction in many countries. He issued orders for nationwide crackdowns on illegal immigrants shortly after taking office. Military planes have already started transporting people back to their countries. Even schools, colleges, and universities are checking documents and sending people back to their home countries. This has led to a series of protests on the streets of the US. Human rights activists and immigration lawyers have raised objections, but Trump remains firm. He claims that under the Biden administration, a record number of people entered through the Mexican border.

The United States is a country built on immigration, and almost all American citizens can trace their roots back to Europe, South America, and Asia-Africa. Therefore, many countries view Trump's decisions from the perspective of human rights as negative. However, it is not entirely unreasonable to consider Trump’s stance on immigration. Is it appropriate for individuals to live illegally in the world’s largest military and economic power? Why haven’t those who have lived there for 5, 10, or 20 years legalized their status? In some cases, becoming legal in the US requires significant financial resources. Many people have chosen to stay illegally rather than incur the cost of legalization. Security is a highly sensitive issue in the US, and having valid documentation is crucial to ensuring that security. Immigration hopefuls should have been aware of this.

Trump has imposed tariffs on goods from several countries, particularly China, Canada, and Mexico, and this has already started to have a major impact. Many believe these decisions, especially in terms of the economy, could backfire on Trump. It seems that he made these decisions hastily, which is why he has temporarily halted tariffs on several countries, including Canada. The tariffs on Canada have been suspended until March 4. However, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, sensing trouble from the US, has traveled to Europe. While his official visit focuses on Transatlantic cooperation and Artificial Intelligence (AI), the underlying goal of the visit is to discuss how Canada and Europe can address Trump together. Europe is particularly alarmed. Trump’s reasoning is that, instead of spending so much money, why should the US be the security provider for European countries? He has pressured European nations to increase their NATO budgets and has even suggested multiple times the possibility of dissolving NATO, which has caused significant concern in Europe. Another source of anxiety is Trump’s personal alliance with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This has led to the creation of a common interest between Canada and Europe.

Whatever the outcome in the coming days, it is certain that several of Trump’s tough policies will remain in place. He will continue to focus on the economic development of the American people. He will also keep an eye on the possibility of his preferred candidate becoming the future US president, will invest maximum effort in the trade war with China, and will distance himself from the policies adopted by the Biden administration regarding various countries. Four years is a long time, so not everything will be clear immediately. However, regardless of what happens, these four years under Trump will lead the United States and the world through a different kind of environment. It will not be surprising even if a new world order emerges.

Mohsin Habib: International Affairs Analyst