Oppositions possess weakness; Yet their strength lies in synergy

The Lok Sabha elections have begun in India, known as the world's largest democracy. The atmosphere across the country is tense, with incidents of violence already reported in various places, resulting in casualties. Despite this, in the first phase where 102 seats were up for grabs, voter turnout has averaged around 65 percent. This figure may increase further. Voters exercised their voting rights defying the scorching heat which proved that the essence of democracy in the country remains unquestionable.

The upcoming election is perhaps the most significant since 1947. This time, political issues are not limited to the usual power struggle but encompass a wide range of topics. Is it about majoritarianism or pluralism? Federal structure or complete centralization? Secularism or a Hindu nation? The Constitution drafted by Ambedkar or a new one altogether, such critical questions are now at the forefront of the Lok Sabha elections.

Speculation is rife among the mainstream media that, similar to the previous election, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under the leadership of Narendra Modi is poised to return to power in Delhi with a clear majority. It's undeniable that Modi has outpaced his opponents by a significant margin. His charismatic persona has become synonymous with the BJP's image. However, it's worth remembering that despite Modi's overwhelming efforts, Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress had the last laugh in West Bengal during the last elections. In states like Kerala, Karnataka, and Telangana, the opposition has managed to defeat the BJP in the legislative assembly elections. Even where the BJP won, the margin of victory in many places was minimal.

In many instances, the BJP has formed governments by purchasing MPs from opposition parties, which raises questions about the integrity of India's democracy. Modi's government, despite its 'Ram Rajya' narrative, has been adept at manipulating the system in favor of corporate interests. Consequently, the influence of corporates on politicians will likely increase, thereby compromising the accountability towards the electorate.

Although the BJP has emerged victorious in many states, it doesn't necessarily imply the opposition's extinction. Congress, despite its electoral setbacks, still commands substantial support from a significant portion of the population, especially among rural and marginalized communities. However, many view Congress as a relic of the past, unable to adapt to changing times. The trust of urban elites and the middle class has shifted away from them. The new generation finds no allure in Congress.

India is so vast that it's challenging to please all sections of the population simultaneously. Consequently, Modi's voter base is primarily comprised of the elite, upper, and middle classes, mainly residing in major cities. The problem lies in the fact that this small segment plays a predominant role in shaping the country's policies. In India, where society is deeply divided along caste and class lines, the majority of the middle class is again part of the upper stratum. They dominate all pillars of the country's democracy. As a result, in shaping the image of the Modi government, urban middle and elite classes play a significant role. They influence public opinion with the help of the media. However, reading the writings of India's distinguished intellectual P. Sainath reveals that oppositional forces in rural areas still wield considerable power.

In recent years, various new tactics have emerged to silence opposing voices without a doubt. Unfortunately, there has also been a rise in religious intolerance. Under the guise of center-state relations, government agencies have been employed to pressure opposition parties, which is a reality. Incidents of discrimination against Dalits, indigenous people, and minorities are also increasing. Generally, the BJP government is perceived as Hindu nationalist, but that's not entirely accurate. It can be said that this regime is Brahminical. Even the Dalits, who are at the bottom of the Hindu caste hierarchy, do not fare well under this regime. When the BJP talks about amending citizenship laws, it will primarily affect the lower Hindu caste population if implemented. Despite the challenging and intimidating environment, the opposition forces that have come together in various ways pose a challenge to the Modi government. Whether they can pose a real challenge to the Modi government remains uncertain at this point, but without a fight, they won't surrender easily.

Previously, there have been many instances where incumbents have had the advantage of dividing the opposition vote. They have won by narrow margins. This time, in most seats, one candidate against the incumbent BJP has already broken away from the Congress party. There is no doubt about that. In South India, the fight is against the BJP's Brahminical politics. In the vast regions of Rajasthan, Western Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar's Jharkhand, the BJP's attacks on opposition are evident from the language of ruling party leaders. The impact of the prolonged farmers' agitation has rattled the BJP in Punjab and Haryana. Besides, the internal rifts within the BJP are evident in many states, signaling trouble for the party. The traditional voter base of the BJP, the upper castes, and the warrior class, are now angry with the party for various reasons. They are expressing their resentment towards the party within the organization itself. Their frustration will not come as a surprise when the election results are announced.

The ruling party's major allegation against the opposition parties is that they lack credible leadership. Consequently, there is no alternative to Narendra Modi in the eyes of the public. In fact, the Indian political arena is divided into two opposing factions. The BJP is entirely dependent on Modi. Such extreme personalization of democracy is unfavorable. For democracy, a federal structure is preferable in opposition parties. Moreover, Rahul Gandhi has evolved significantly compared to before. Leaders like Tejashwi Yadav of Bihar or Arvind Kejriwal of Delhi, and Stalin of Tamil Nadu are very influential in their respective states. Therefore, it's not just the weaknesses of the opposition parties that mainstream media focuses on; it can be said with certainty that in the electoral battle, they will not easily succumb.

The core of Indian democracy is deeply rooted. Even today, pluralism attracts much attention among the masses. In a pluralistic society, achieving unanimity is quite challenging. The opposition parties' Trump card is this pluralistic view, which 80 percent of the country's citizens consider India to be. India is a nation of all religions, castes, and languages. The real strength of the opposition parties lies in pluralism. Destroying it would be exceedingly difficult, if not impossible.

Soumitra Dastidar: Indian filmmaker and author.