Pakistan's election with predetermined results

Hafiz Naeem ur Rahman, a candidate of Pakistan's Jamaat-e-Islami party, has won a seat in the local legislature of Karachi city but has announced his resignation from the seat. According to his account, the candidate supported by Imran Khan's PTI received significantly more votes than him. He secured 26,000 votes, while his rival, an independent candidate supported by the PTI, Saif Bari, received 31,000 votes.

However, the Election Commission (EC) said that Saif Bari received only around 11,000 votes. The EC has rejected this allegation. Hafiz Naeem ur Rahman's statement has stunned the world, as it is unprecedented for an elected member to announce resignation in such a manner.

On the other hand, through this admission, the allegations of widespread voter fraud and illegal interference in the election are proven. Another rare incident of election irregularities has surfaced in Rawalpindi. Commissioner Liyakat Ali Chatha of Rawalpindi Division has resigned from his position, admitting involvement with electoral fraud. He stated at a press conference that despite a margin of 50,000 votes in Rawalpindi, defeated candidates have been declared winners, totaling 13 such candidates. Feeling remorse for being involved in such a crime has deeply troubled him, prompting him to seek his own judgment. Since Imran Khan's political party Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) abruptly halted the announcement of results, allegations of widespread election rigging have been circulating. The admissions of Hafiz Naeem ur Rahman of Jamaat-e-Islami and Commissioner Liyakat Ali Chathar have sparked new controversies regarding the integrity of the election. In the darkness of the night, allegations of voter mandate theft are resonating as people take to the streets in protest. Small political parties in Pakistan have participated in these protests, demanding an investigation into the alleged fraud. The delayed announcement of results has raised suspicions among everyone. Just as PTI was advancing in most seats, the announcement of results was suddenly halted.

Apart from that, the delay in announcing the results was attributed to bad weather and remote, inaccessible areas. PTI has alleged the reversal of results in 85 seats. The main aim of electoral fraud in the election was to defeat independent candidates supported by Imran Khan. Out of a total of 336 seats in the Pakistan National Assembly, 266 seats were directly contested, 70 seats were reserved for women and minorities. Due to the suspension of voting in one constituency, elections were held for 265 seats, and results were announced for 264 seats due to the suspension of results in one constituency. The government formation requires 134 seats; however, no party could win the necessary seats for government formation. Out of the victorious 101 independent candidates, 93 were supported by Imran Khan's PTI. Nawaz Sharif's Muslim League (PML-N) has won 75 seats, Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) or PPIP has won 54 seats, Muttahida Qaumi Movement Pakistan (MQM) has won 17 seats, and other parties have won 17 seats. The election took place on February 8th, and after the election, today, on the 21st, a compromise has been reached between Nawaz Sharif's PML-N and Bilawal Bhutto's PPP regarding government formation. After the end of the election, Nawaz Sharif's PML-N and Bilawal Bhutto's PPP appeared to be joining forces to form a government; however, the combined seats of these two parties were only 129, requiring an additional 5 seats for government formation. Already, one independent MP supported by Imran Khan has joined hands with Nawaz Sharif, with 4 more to go. It is not difficult to bring these four MPs on board, as there is no legal barrier to floor crossing for independent MPs if there is power or opportunity temptation. According to the agreement between PML-N and PPP, Shahbaz Sharif of PML-N is set to become the Prime Minister of Pakistan, while Asif Ali Zardari of PPP will become the President, the father of Bilawal Bhutto. Before the compromise, there was much drama on the stage; Bilawal Bhutto, the head of PPP, announced that his party would go to parliament as an opposition party without joining the government.

Imran Khan also directed his party, PTI, to position themselves as the opposition in the National Assembly. Nawaz Sharif's PML-N is playing the same game, with many leaders of their coalition expressing dissatisfaction with forming the government. The weak coalition government will always be threatened with the specter of a vote of no confidence, and in such uncertainty, no party wanted to tarnish their image, as Pakistan's fragile economy cannot afford a tarnished image of the ruling party for long-term stability. It is unlikely that the bonds of a formed coalition will last long. Because even with a simple majority, no party in Pakistan has been able to complete the term of a prime minister. Since independence in 1947, there has been no Prime Minister in Pakistan who has completed a five-year term in office. Several Prime Ministers have been assassinated, some have been removed from office before completing their term by the Governor-General or President, some have been ousted in military coups, and a few have been declared ineligible by the courts on charges of corruption. Seven of them were hanged, including Lieutenant General Zia-ul-Haq, who in 1977 seized power and announced the hanging of 'illegitimate' Bhutto, father of Benazir Bhutto. His threat was realized through the judiciary in 1979. Pakistan's first Prime Minister, Liaquat Ali Khan, was assassinated in 1951. Benazir Bhutto was killed in a suicide bombing. Imran Khan himself has also been shot at, but fortunately survived. Most Prime Ministers in Pakistan have been ousted; among them, like Imran Khan, those who have arrested and sent to jail include Hossein Shahid Suhrawardy, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Benazir Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif, and Shahbaz Sharif.

Pakistan is the only country where elections are held under the auspices of a caretaker government; however, all elections held under the caretaker government of Pakistan have been biased and undemocratic. This time, the caretaker government has used the Election Commission to conduct a predetermined election. Before the election, an environment was created to make it difficult for Imran Khan's PTI party to compete. At the time of the election, Imran Khan was in jail, declared ineligible for election by the court. The Election Commission canceled their party's electoral symbol 'cricket bat,' prevented their party from gathering anywhere, and did not permit the opening of election offices by the caretaker government. In this situation, their main means of propaganda, mobile phones, and the internet, were also shut down by the caretaker government on the day of the vote. Without a party symbol, candidates from the party were forced to compete in the election as independent candidates with different symbols. In elections in countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, etc., the importance of party symbols is paramount. If the PTI were given the opportunity to choose a party symbol, it would have severely dented the caretaker government's chances in all constituencies. If the election field had not been leveled, there was a possibility of a voting revolution in favor of the PTI.

There is a desire to write another separate column about the conduct of Pakistan's caretaker government. Influential newspapers in Pakistan, like Dawn, believe that the sanctity of elections has been violated by the caretaker government, and the entire state machinery is equally responsible. Like Bangladesh's party government, Pakistan's caretaker government could not avoid controversy over elections. The subject of ridicule is that when an opposition party, held under the grip of a party government or a caretaker government, comes to power, they often resort to the same behavior towards their opposition parties.

Author: Former Executive Director, Bangladesh Bank and Former Managing Director, Mint.