Possibility of a future war between India and Pakistan

For four days from May 7 to May 10, fear and panic prevailed for four days not only in the subcontinent, but also among people all over the world. During these four days, the missile, drone, and airstrikes exchanged between India and Pakistan brought the two nuclear-armed nations to the brink of a full-scale war. Despite the global panic, no mediator was seen between the two sides during the first three days after the war began. At that time, neither India nor Pakistan showed any sign of compromise in their body language. Amidst the war cry, a statement by US Vice President JD Vance further alarmed peace-loving people worldwide where he said, “The India-Pakistan war is not our business.”

But how did the exchange of shelling between the two countries suddenly stop on May 10 without any plan? The president of the United States initially claimed that it was due to his intervention that the two countries stopped the war and listened to him. He praised the governments and people of both countries. He expressed hope that in the future, he would mediate the Kashmir issue to find a permanent solution. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance said that the war was halted due to the efforts of President Trump and themselves. JD Vance made a particularly significant statement. He said, “Had the war not been stopped quickly, there would have been a different kind of escalation." He clearly indicated that the war was heading toward a nuclear conflict. Perhaps the statement is true.

Neither government nor the people of either country raised any objection to the war. Rather, the majority of people were dreaming of victory. India wanted to continue the attack through conventional warfare.

Their calculation was that Pakistan would resist as much as possible, but in doing so, Pakistan’s fragile economy would be completely destroyed and the country would struggle to survive. But Pakistan, considering everything, did not want to prolong the war. They knew they couldn’t sustain a war for even a month due to economic reasons. So, from the very beginning, Pakistan used its most powerful weapons. And there are rumours that Pakistan had reached for nuclear arms. India, upon realizing this as a responsible country, agreed to stop the war at the first opportunity. However, both countries have admitted that they agreed to a ceasefire through direct telephone talks.

Both sides claimed victory in the short war. Both countries celebrated their victory. The media in both countries prominently published news of their respective wins. However, major international news agencies have acknowledged that several of India’s advanced Rafale fighter jets were shot down. As for Pakistan’s claim of destroying India’s missile defense system S-400, the international community has yet to confirm its authenticity.

Suddenly, after an overnight discussion, the United States announced that it had stopped the war between the two countries. Why did they suddenly become so active? Was it to prevent a nuclear war, to protect Pakistan, or to protect India — this has now become a subject of discussion among experts. Whether the US support leans toward Pakistan or India, it will be based on various economic calculations. However, the United States is not in a position to directly support either side in this war. On one hand, there is the Gaza war. This war is essentially America’s own war.

The US has to continue providing political and military support to Israel in its war against Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen. On the other hand, the US is in a complex situation in the Ukraine war. On one hand, President Trump has a personal rapport with Russian President Putin; on the other hand, former President Biden’s administration supplied hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of weapons to Ukraine, from which the US now finds it difficult to withdraw. NATO is engaged in a proxy war in support of Ukraine. The US is a key member of NATO. Meanwhile, Trump has signed a major deal with Ukraine over rare minerals. Naturally, President Trump does not want to see the complete destruction of Ukraine through war in the coming days.

In the modern era, in any war, major powers provide military and political support to the country that purchases and uses their weapons. It's a very simple calculation. In the case of India and Pakistan, it is very difficult to understand the US stance. Only the major intelligence agencies might be able to tell. Pakistan possesses fighter jets from both the US and China. The US takes pride in its F-16 aircraft. No matter how many modern fighter jets emerge, it is said that the F-16 is still highly effective in aerial combat. India has Russia’s Su-30 and France’s fourth-generation Rafale jets.

The US would never want its commercially successful F-16s to be shot down by Russia’s Sukhoi or France’s Rafale. Although the F-16s were given to Pakistan under the condition that they be used only in the fight against terrorism and not against India, it is certain that if a full-scale war breaks out, Pakistan will not stick to that condition. Facing defeat, it will use not only the F-16s but any available weapon — that is certain. At a time when someone like Trump, known for his frugality, is canceling various financial allocations including global humanitarian aid, in April he gave $397 million to Pakistan as security assistance — to keep the F-16 fleet operational.

On the other hand, Pakistan used Chinese J-10 fighter jets against India. Although India made no comment, on May 9, the US government informed Reuters that at least two Rafale jets from India were shot down. It's not that the United States never conceals information, but in this case, the reason for eagerly disclosing it is clear: the market competition between Rafale and F-16.

Why the United States took the initiative to stop the war between the two countries and which side it supports is difficult to determine for many reasons. Since assuming power, President Trump has done nothing besides calling Narendra Modi “my friend” that would suggest India or Modi is a special ally. In fact, in some cases, Trump has treated India disrespectfully. For example, some Indians deported from the United States were sent back to India on military aircraft with their hands and feet bound in a humiliating manner, which was completely unnecessary. At Trump’s inauguration ceremony, Punjab’s anti-India leader Pannun was invited, and during the event, he showed victory sign while chanting “Khalistan Zindabad.” These things did not go unnoticed by India.

There is a rumour that before the election, when Narendra Modi visited the United States, Trump had hoped Modi would support him so that Indian-origin voters in the US would back the Republican Party. But during the visit, Modi met with Kamala Harris and gifted a diamond ring to Biden’s wife, which reportedly angered Trump.

On the other hand, the Trump administration’s policy has become clear: they want to engage in trade competition with China, while downplaying military rivalry. This, too, is not particularly good news for India. Between the May 7 and May 10, it became evident that China and Turkey were prepared to provide military assistance to Pakistan. But no such preparedness was seen from anyone on India’s side. Not even the United States, the United Kingdom, or the European Union condemned Turkey or China.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said, "We have entered a ceasefire. But in the coming days, we will observe what steps Pakistan takes. Terrorism and dialogue cannot go hand in hand." Modi has tried to send a message to Indians that if there is any kind of attack in the future, he will take extreme measures. No matter what he says publicly, unless there is a provocation like the Pahalgam attack on April 22, India will in no way become involved in war.

However, a risk still remains. We know that several intelligence agencies are active in our region. If, at the instigation of any such agency, an attack takes place, then war will become inevitable. Therefore, in the coming days, the security of both India and Pakistan will no longer be confined to the wishes or intentions of these two countries alone. A conflict between them can be triggered by an external power. This risk has remained ever since the war in May.

Mohsin Habib: Journalist and international affairs analyst