Post-election situation in Pakistan

Although national and provincial elections were held in Pakistan on the 8th, political stability has not been achieved. It is uncertain when and to what extent it will come. Perhaps a government will be formed very soon. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), led by Nawaz Sharif, and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), led by Bilawal Bhutto, have agreed to the formation of a coalition government after repeated discussions. However, how that will happen is still unclear. According to reports, Nawaz Sharif himself may become the Prime Minister.

Despite dissatisfaction and protests elsewhere, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), led by Imran Khan, may not have been able to officially win the election, but according to PTI's current chief barrister Gohar Ali Khan, they are going to Parliament with their independent victorious candidates. Their purpose of going to this parliament is clear. Out of the 102 independent candidates, along with the 93 PTI-supported victorious members, they will be allocated reserved seats according to their proportion. Pakistan has 60 reserved seats for women and 10 seats for minorities. Among these 70 seats, it is said that PTI or independents will get the highest number of seats in proportion. On the other hand, they will conduct a parliamentary democratic movement to free the jailed leaders of the party, including Imran Khan. However, PTI is simultaneously engaged in street protests. Especially in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab regions, PTI-supported independent candidates claim that despite leading initially, the results have been reversed through the administration. PTI or independents have won the most seats in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab.

Despite being third in terms of seat numbers, the Pakistan Peoples Party, led by Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, has emerged as a trump card. A simple majority to form the government requires 134 votes. Consequently, PPP's 54 seats have become significant. It is notable that the seat numbers for the supported independent candidates of Imran Khan's party and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz are 92 and 75 respectively. The country's politics is currently marked by a major rivalry between PML-N and PTI, and consensus between them seems unlikely.

However, it is unlikely that Benazir Bhutto's husband and Bilawal Bhutto's father, Asif Ali Zardari, will ever ally with Imran's independents to form a government. This is because it could lead to a division of power between Pakistan's military and the behind-the-scenes power brokers. Moreover, in the recent past, PML-N and PPP together formed a government and led the country for 16 months. Nawaz Sharif's brother and former Chief Minister of Punjab, Shehbaz Sharif, was the Prime Minister of that government, and Bilawal Bhutto was the Foreign Minister. The PPP now aims for a larger share, although it is not yet certain which direction the situation will unfold, it is merely an assumption. Pakistan's fourth-largest party, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement or MQM, has secured 17 seats. They have been supporting Nawaz Sharif from the beginning. MQM wants their fair share. Previously, Nawaz Sharif repeatedly stated after elections that he wants to form a national government of consensus.

According to the rules, within three weeks of the election, the President will summon the Parliament session. In that session, a new Speaker will be elected. The new Speaker will then invite nominations for the Parliament leader, i.e., the Prime Minister, to be elected. To become Prime Minister, a candidate needs a simple majority of 169 votes out of a total of 336 seats, including reserved seats. If no candidate achieves this majority, another round of voting will be conducted. If that also fails, then until a Prime Minister is elected. As a result, there will likely be extensive political maneuvering during this time. "Who will ally with whom, who will go to which side, there is no certainty in that regard. Especially, many members of parliament from smaller parties may switch sides frequently.

Indeed, elections in Pakistan are a crucial event for regional politics as well. Pakistan's military chief, Wasim Munir, has rightly emphasized the need for stable leadership in Pakistan.The relationship between Pakistan and India, the largest neighboring country, is currently strained. If tensions escalate between the two nuclear-powered nations, it could lead to catastrophic consequences. In this scenario, if Nawaz Sharif becomes Prime Minister, it could pave the way for peace and negotiation with India. Sharif has been historically inclined towards fostering better relations with India. At least, the likelihood of hostility escalation would be lower.

On the flip side, after the withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan in 2021, the Taliban seized control of the country. The United States itself facilitated their rise to power. Since then, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) attacks in Pakistan have intensified. Pakistan had decided to designate Afghan refugees as 'illegal foreigners' and decided to send them back to Afghanistan. This further enrages the Afghans. Now, they frequently launch attacks in Pakistan and engage in conflicts along the Pakistan border. This issue may diminish somewhat if Nawaz Sharif comes to power.

Pakistan's relationship with China is long-standing. But recently the relationship between the two countries has cooled a bit. Recently China's biggest investment China Pakistan Economic Corridor is under threat. A third of Pakistan's total debt is owed to China. In this situation, fostering a closer relationship with China will be a significant task for the next Prime Minister. While PPP's Bilawal Bhutto lacks the expertise and relationship, despite serving as the Foreign Minister.

The Arab countries have always had strong relations with Pakistan. However, I say 'had' because due to this, there have been significant changes in the geopolitics of the region. Saudi Arabia and Qatar were the main sources of economic assistance for Pakistan from the Middle East. Now, there is a cooling of relations with Saudi Arabia regarding Qatar. In Pakistan's fragile economic situation, neither of these two countries can be rejected outright. In this regard, Nawaz Sharif may play a role in development with some degree of neutrality. Besides, the extreme hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran is also a significant concern for Pakistan.

However, it is true that if Sharif becomes Prime Minister, Islamist extremist groups may become more active. This is because the majority of extremists and Islamic fundamentalists support Imran Khan. However, the biggest challenge for Pakistan's next Prime Minister will be to revive the country's sinking economy. No matter how charismatic a leader may be, if they fail to quickly revitalize the economy, it will be difficult for them to maintain power. They may even be forced to resign voluntarily. Renowned Pakistani economist Atif Mian said on Monday, "Even if Pakistan's current leaders achieve miraculous results overnight, people will not trust them.These leaders have now become like foreigners in their own land. This Princeton University professor stated, "The situation in Pakistan is so fragile that without foreign loans, they don't have the capacity to pay the salary of an office clerk”.

In the past three years, 1600, or roughly one-third, of the country's textile mills have closed down. The textile industry contributes 60% to Pakistan's total exports. The inflation rate is currently at 29%. Millions of Pakistanis are now unsure whether they will have food the next day. In such a situation, concerns about the country's future as a nation have arisen. Therefore, whoever comes to power, there is no expectation of any good news for them. Then there is the demand of the military. It is expected that within a day or two, it will be clear who the Prime Minister will be. Whoever comes must first stand at the door of the IMF to waive the loan amount. They will have to go to China to solve the complexity of loan-related issues. They need to seek economic assistance from middle east and take a stance with the United States to stabilize the diplomatic situation. In other words, whoever comes to the power, will have to engage in various forms of challenging battles to survive.

Author: fiction writer and journalist