Rakhine’s Path to Sovereignty and Its Implications for Bangladesh

The growing strength of the Arakan Army (AA) and its territorial gains in Myanmar’s Rakhine State have raised the prospect of the region eventually becoming a sovereign entity. While this development could reshape regional geopolitics, it poses significant challenges for neighboring Bangladesh. Rakhine’s strategic location along the Bay of Bengal and its role as Myanmar’s maritime gateway make its future a critical concern for Bangladesh’s security, economy, and stability.

An independent Rakhine would border Bangladesh and Myanmar, with direct access to the Bay of Bengal, positioning it as a key player in regional trade and geopolitics. Such sovereignty would likely be driven by the AA, which seeks autonomy for the Rakhine people. However, Myanmar, historically resistant to ethnic autonomy, is unlikely to accept Rakhine’s independence in the foreseeable future. This rejection would result in prolonged conflict, causing disruptions not only within Myanmar but also across the region. A militarized Rakhine, embroiled in clashes with Myanmar’s central government, would intensify instability along Bangladesh’s southeastern border.

The humanitarian consequences for Bangladesh are already apparent. The AA’s antagonistic stance toward the Rohingya community risks escalating violence and displacement, further straining Bangladesh, which currently hosts over a million Rohingya refugees. In recent months, thousands more have fled into Bangladesh, adding to an already unsustainable burden. An independent or autonomous Rakhine under the AA’s control could exacerbate the crisis, pushing more refugees into Bangladesh and fueling resentment in local communities.

Beyond humanitarian concerns, Bangladesh faces direct security risks. Armed Rohingya groups, marginalized in an independent Rakhine, may seek refuge and operational bases in Bangladesh, heightening the risk of cross-border insurgencies. Such actions would strain Bangladesh-Myanmar relations and draw Dhaka into a conflict it cannot afford to escalate. Moreover, the Bay of Bengal—a critical economic lifeline for Bangladesh—could become a theater for power struggles, disrupting fishing, petroleum exploration, and maritime trade.

Rakhine’s strategic importance extends beyond its immediate neighbors. For China, the state is a critical node in its Belt and Road Initiative, with the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port serving as a vital link for energy imports and trade. Beijing is reportedly engaging diplomatically with the Arakan Army to safeguard its investments, indicating that China is prepared to adapt to shifting power dynamics in the region.

India, too, has significant stakes in Rakhine. The Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, which connects India’s northeastern states to the Bay of Bengal, is critical for New Delhi’s Act East Policy. Instability in Rakhine threatens to undermine India’s connectivity projects and regional ambitions. Meanwhile, the United States sees Rakhine as a key element in countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.

For Bangladesh, this competition among global powers underscores the urgency of proactive engagement. Dhaka must strengthen its diplomatic efforts to address the escalating crisis in Rakhine, ensuring its interests are not sidelined amid the geopolitical rivalry. Bangladesh should work closely with regional players like China and India while leveraging international platforms to emphasize the shared responsibility for resolving the Rohingya crisis.

While the prospect of an independent Rakhine remains uncertain, its potential implications for Bangladesh are undeniable. The combination of a humanitarian crisis, security risks, and economic vulnerabilities demands a coordinated and strategic response. By engaging diplomatically, reinforcing security, and safeguarding economic interests, Bangladesh can navigate this evolving challenge and position itself as a stabilizing force in the region. How Dhaka addresses this issue will not only shape its immediate future but also its standing as a regional player in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

Abu Nazam M Tanveer Hossain: Public Policy Advocate