Ramadan Market: Consumers in a dilemma of relief-discomfort

This year's Ramadan has seen a limited rise in the prices of essential commodities. While the prices of some items remain stable, others have increased. The cost of vegetables has dropped significantly. The prices of sugar, lentils, chickpeas, and gram flour have remained steady and, in some cases, decreased by 5 to 10 BDT per kilogram. However, the prices of rice and oil have surged. Dates continue to be expensive, and fruit prices are high. The prices of lemons, cucumbers, and eggplants have skyrocketed. As a result, consumers are caught between relief and distress in the market.

This year's Ramadan began at the end of winter, with an abundance of winter vegetables in the market. Following last year’s floods, farmers increased vegetable cultivation, leading to good production. Consequently, vegetable prices have dropped sharply, along with the prices of potatoes and onions. Both of these items have been imported and locally produced in good quantities. Since this is the peak production season, their prices have fallen. This has benefited consumers, but farmers are facing difficulties as they are forced to sell their produce at very low prices.

Before Ramadan, the government reduced import duties and taxes on various essential goods, including sugar, lentils, dates, and chickpeas. This led to an increase in imports and a steady supply of these goods in the market. Although demand has increased during Ramadan, prices have not risen significantly. In some cases, they have even decreased. However, the price of dates remains high, ranging from 450 to 1,200 BDT per kilogram for high-quality varieties, while lower-quality soft dates are being sold at 200 BDT per kilogram. The reduction in import duties has had little impact on date prices. However, as Ramadan progresses, demand for these items is expected to decline, leading to lower prices.

Among the most frequently used agricultural products during Ramadan are lemons, cucumbers, and eggplants, whose prices were exorbitant at the start of the month. The price of lemons ranged from 80 to 200 BDT per set, whereas before Ramadan, it was between 20 and 40 BDT. Eggplants were sold for 80 to 100 BDT per kilogram, compared to the previous 40 to 50 BDT per kilogram. Cucumbers were priced between 60 and 80 BDT per kilogram, up from 40 to 50 BDT earlier. These items are not in peak production season, which, coupled with high demand, has led to price hikes. However, the primary beneficiaries of these price increases are middlemen, not farmers. The lack of effective market monitoring by government agencies is evident.

The most concerning price hikes for consumers are in rice and oil. Over the past week, rice prices have increased by 3 to 5 BDT per kilogram. A shortage in oil supply has also caused difficulties, particularly for low-income consumers. The cost of rice and oil constitutes a significant portion of the food expenses for lower-income households, making price increases a severe burden for them. This year’s floods have led to lower-than-expected yields of Aus and Aman rice. Rice imports have not met expectations, and the government’s internal procurement has been insufficient. As a result, the market has a lower surplus of rice, and unscrupulous traders are taking advantage of the situation for excessive profits. With about two months remaining before Boro rice is harvested, rice prices are unlikely to decrease soon. Similarly, a handful of importers control the oil market, and despite reports of increased oil supply, consumers are still facing high prices, particularly for half-liter and one-liter bottled oil. However, supermarkets are selling bottled soybean oil and other varieties at their labeled prices.

Additionally, the prices of various spices have risen sharply. Cardamom, cinnamon, and cumin are selling at much higher rates than before due to a lack of market regulation. However, lower vegetable prices have led to a decrease in egg prices, now available at 100 to 110 BDT per dozen. The price of broiler chicken has also decreased to 200 BDT per kilogram. On the other hand, beef remains expensive, ranging from 750 to 800 BDT per kilogram, while goat meat is priced between 1,100 and 1,200 BDT per kilogram. The high prices have resulted in reduced sales of these products. While consumers are happy with lower chicken and egg prices, an increase in milk prices has caused some concern.

During Ramadan, fresh fruit consumption rises, driving up prices. This year is no exception, with foreign fruits being particularly expensive. Among local fruits, watermelon prices have surged. At the beginning of Ramadan, watermelon cost 70 to 80 BDT per kilogram, with fewer buyers. Prices have since decreased slightly, now ranging from 50 to 60 BDT per kilogram. A whole watermelon costs between 300 and 500 BDT, depending on size. While supermarkets offer sliced watermelon, open markets do not sell smaller portions, making it difficult for some consumers to afford large watermelons.

Although rice and oil prices have increased domestically, their prices are declining in the international market. If imports rise in the coming months, retail prices for these items should decrease, bringing relief to consumers. However, with winter over, the supply of most vegetables will shrink, leading to higher prices. In April and May, food inflation may rise slightly, but effective management could help stabilize essential commodity prices.

Currently, people’s incomes are low, employment opportunities are scarce, and investments have slowed. The law and order situation is concerning in some areas. Inflation is making life even more difficult for people, especially the poor, whose purchasing power has significantly declined. Many can no longer spend freely and must carefully manage their expenses. In such circumstances, controlling inflation will be crucial in the coming months. Increasing agricultural production is the only viable solution. At present, Boro rice is growing in the fields but faces risks due to chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and irrigation costs. Additionally, the potential for natural disasters is a major concern for farmers. If the Boro harvest proceeds smoothly, the situation may improve in two months. However, farmers are already in debt, and the high cost of agricultural inputs has raised production costs. While subsidies on agricultural inputs exist, they do not provide sufficient relief. Instead, farmers need direct cash assistance and incentives to ease their financial strain.

During the upcoming Eid, government and private sector employees will receive bonuses and, in some cases, hardship allowances. However, poor farmers rarely receive any such benefits. This disparity needs to be addressed. The farmers who work tirelessly to feed the nation deserve financial support during Ramadan and Eid.

Ramadan is primarily a month of fasting, mercy, blessings, and forgiveness. Many people pay their Zakat, donate to poor relatives, and give Fitra, which helps alleviate poverty and reduce economic inequality. In many Muslim-majority countries, the prices of essential goods are reduced during Ramadan, and support for low-income individuals is increased. Even in non-Muslim developed countries, products are sold at discounted rates before major religious holidays, such as Christmas. In Bangladesh, however, price reductions before Ramadan or Eid are rare. Instead, prices often rise as businesses seek excessive profits, making it harder for low-income individuals to access the market. This mentality needs to change. We hope that the country’s wealthy and business community will show compassion and support for the less fortunate. It is everyone’s hope that during the upcoming Eid, people will be able to shop at affordable prices and enjoy a more comfortable market experience.

Dr. Jahangir Alam: Agricultural Economist, Former Director General of the Bangladesh Livestock Research Institute; Former Vice-Chancellor of the University of Global Village.