Rohingya repatriation: Reality vs hue and cry

A hue and cry has been raised recently from Bangkok to Dhaka centring the issue of Rohingya repatriation. Discussions are going on from international diplomatic circles to the country's media - Myanmar has agreed to take back 180,000 Rohingyas.

Hearing the hue and cry it may seem that the solution to the problem is knocking at the door; but the reality is much more complicated and behind the scenes of this sudden campaign, there are various tricks and conflicts of interest. Just as there is a deception here, there is also the hypocrisy of imperialist politics.

Despite repeated assurances and agreements on the Rohingya repatriation issue, no progress is visible in reality. After some time, the international community raises the smoke of some discussions and then falls silent again. This raises the question - is this campaign really enthusiastic about solving the problem, or is it just a means of diplomatically relieving pressure?

The biggest question is - why the discussion over the issue is gaining sudden momentum now? The Rohingya problem has been weighing on Bangladesh's shoulders for a long time. Yet international powers have not played any effective role. In the current situation, a fear is strongly emerging - there may be an international intention to prolong the 'interim government' system in Bangladesh capitalising this issue to. Especially at a time when political uncertainty exists, the fear of using the Rohingya issue as a strategic tool cannot be completely ruled out.

While it may sound promising to hear that 180,000 Rohingyas will be repatriated, the reality is different. Bangladesh had sent a list of 800,000 Rohingyas to the Myanmar government in six phases between 2018 and 2020. From that huge list, Myanmar has recognised only 180,000 Rohingyas as eligible for repatriation. So, what will happen to the remaining 620,000 Rohingyas?

Moreover, the Rohingya crisis has become more complicated over time. Last year alone, about 70,000 new Rohingyas entered Bangladesh. Again, an average of about 30,000 children have been born in Rohingya camps every year since 2017. In seven years, the number has reached about 200,000. So, in total - the old 800,000, the new 70,000, and the children 200,000 - the current Rohingya population is close to 1070,000. Now the question is, has the environment been created for the sustainable repatriation of this large number of people? The answer is ‘no’.

The Rohingya are originally from Rakhine State in Myanmar; but in the current situation, this region is no longer under the control of the military government of Myanmar. It is now under the control of an ethnic armed group called the ‘Arakan Army’ – who have been fighting against the junta for a long time. Therefore, it is not unreasonable to doubt how fruitful any agreement on the repatriation of Rohingyas with the government that has lost control of Rakhine Province will be.

The internal political situation in Myanmar is also not very favourable. A large part of Rakhine State, from which the Rohingyas were expelled, is now under the control of the Arakan Army. The very existence of the Myanmar government there is questionable. So where will they take the Rohingyas back or how?

The Arakan Army is not Rohingya-friendly in any way. On the contrary, they have continued to torture the Rohingyas even after taking control of the state. As a result of that torture, 70,000 Rohingyas fled to Bangladesh last year alone.

How is repatriation possible in this situation?
According to international policy, the most important conditions for repatriation are voluntary return and a safe environment. If the Rohingyas do not want to return of their own accord, or if they feel that their safety is not guaranteed after returning, then the Bangladesh government has no right to forcefully send them back.

Past experience in this regard is not pleasant. Rohingyas in Rakhine have not been guaranteed citizenship, rights and security. Some Rohingyas were sent back before 2017; but the persecution against them continued unabatedly. Most Rohingyas know that their lives will be at risk if they return. As a result, even if Myanmar agrees to take back some Rohingyas, it is not possible for Bangladesh to forcefully send them back if the Rohingyas refuse to go.

But do the talks that are currently underway meet these conditions? Or is it just a ‘delay strategy’ through which international pressure is being temporarily reduced? Is there any political or diplomatic motive behind it?

According to experts, Bangladesh's role in current global and regional politics is becoming increasingly important. In particular, at this time of political transition in Bangladesh, there may be an attempt to use the Rohingya issue as a 'pressure tool'. Some believe that the international community may want to take strategic advantage of Bangladesh by perpetuating this crisis for the future.

Bangladesh has already showed a unique example of humanity by sheltering 1.1 million Rohingyas; but this expression of humanity cannot be allowed to become a political trap. If Bangladesh's sovereignty and internal stability are threatened in the name of Rohingya repatriation, then it is unacceptable.

Rohingya repatriation is undoubtedly a long-term and step-by-step process. It cannot be solved by simply making agreements or campaigning. It requires internationally recognised impartial monitoring, Myanmar's internal political stability, and a commitment to ensuring the security and civil rights of the Rohingya community. The humanitarian responsibility that Bangladesh has already fulfilled is rare in world history; but it is important to be aware now so that this humanity does not fall victim to the political strategies of any state or international group.

The solution to the Rohingya crisis is not through diplomatic campaigns or geopolitical maneuvers, but through a sustainable and just process. Bangladesh must move forward on this issue with caution and foresight, so that there is no opportunity to use this crisis for political gain. The safe repatriation of the Rohingya is desirable; but it should not be part of any hidden political agenda - that is the demand of everyone today.

In this situation, pragmatic diplomatic steps are needed, not just paper declarations or meaningless hue and cry. No sustainable solution is possible without international pressure to solve the Rohingya problem, accountability of appropriate human rights organisations, and a long-term coordinated plan.

Because, it is crystal clear that the Rohingyas will not go. The reality is not in favour of their return. Yet, a hue and cry is being created. A permanent solution to the Rohingya crisis depends on Myanmar's political will, peace in Rakhine, and the civil rights of the Rohingya community people. Until these conditions are met, the repatriation talks will remain just a political noise.