Speculation of Opposition Party in the National Parliament

Since the ninth national parliamentary election held in 2008, a weak opposition party has been forming in the Bangladesh National Parliament, which is likely to become the weakest this time. In the 2008 election, the opposition party, BNP, had only 30 seats. After that, in the 2014 election, they secured 34 seats, simultaneously being in both the government and the opposition as the Jatiya Party took the chair of the opposition. BNP faced a setback in that election. In the 2018 election, with 22 seats, Jatiya party once again took their place in the opposition party in the National Parliament.

Academically, it is considered that unless a party holds at least 10 percent of the seats, it is not precisely categorized as the opposition party. In other words, in Bangladesh, out of the 300 seats in the parliament, a party is not termed as the opposition unless it holds at least 30 seats.

However, this time, the National Party has secured only 11 seats. Therefore, the question arises whether it can be called the opposition party. On the other hand, out of the 62 independent candidates who won, most of them are affiliated with the Awami League. They can form a coalition and choose one among them as the leader to sit in the opposition party. However, it remains uncertain whether they will do that or if the Jatiya Party, with its 11 seats, will eventually take the chair of the opposition party.

There is also a question whether the opposition leader's seat will remain vacant this time. Examples of this can be found in Bangladesh and in neighboring India. For the past two terms, the opposition leader's seat in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India's parliament, has been vacant. This is because, there too, a party needs to have at least one-tenth of the total seats to qualify as the opposition party. Due to the overwhelming majority of the BJP, the Congress is not considered an opposition party in the Lok Sabha at the moment. Hence, there is no opposition leader in the current scenario.

In the Lok Sabha elections held in 2014 and 2019, the Congress party failed to secure at least one-tenth of the total seats both times. In the latest 2019 elections, they won 51 seats; however, to be eligible for the position of the opposition leader in the 542-seat Lok Sabha, a party needs to have at least 55 seats.

On the other hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won with a majority, securing 303 seats in the 2019 elections, while in the 2014 elections, they had won 282 seats. Together with their allies, they had a total of 336 seats. The Congress party, in contrast, had its worst performance in the history of India in the 2014 elections, winning only 44 seats. Due to this, no one was declared the opposition leader. The question is whether Bangladesh is following a similar model to India.

Relevantly, in the parliamentary elections held in Bangladesh on March 7, 1973, the Awami League emerged victorious with 293 seats. As a result, there was no opposition party in the country's first National Parliament. The seat for the opposition leader was vacant. Subsequently, in the second National Parliament elections held on February 18, 1979, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) secured 207 seats, forming the government. The Bangladesh Awami League became the opposition party with 39 seats. Within the Awami League, there were two factions in opposition – the Malik Group with 39 seats and the Mizan Group with 2 seats.

In the parliamentary elections held on May 7, 1986, the Jatiya Party formed the government with 153 seats. The Awami League became the opposition with 76 seats. The fourth National Parliament elections, held on March 3, 1988, were boycotted by both the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The Jatiya Party, securing 251 seats, formed the government. A.S. Abdur Rab, the leader of the combined opposition with 19 seats, became the opposition leader.

In the history of parliamentary politics in Bangladesh, the first effective and powerful opposition party was formed after the fifth National Parliament elections held on February 27, 1991. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) formed the government with 140 seats, while the Awami League secured 88 seats and became the opposition party.

In the subsequent parliament, there was again a shift in the political landscape. Under special circumstances and with a specific purpose, the sixth National Parliament elections were held on February 15, 1996. In this election, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) secured 278 seats, while the Awami League boycotted the election. No party managed to form an opposition party as no one secured enough seats for it. As a result, there was no opposition leader in this parliament either.

In the seventh National Parliament elections held on June 12, 1996, another powerful opposition party was formed. In this election, the Awami League formed the government with 146 seats, while the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) became the opposition with 116 seats. In the history of Bangladesh, this parliament witnessed remarkable cooperation and balance between the government and the opposition.

In the eighth National Parliament elections held in October 2001, a balanced representation was maintained between the government and the opposition. In this election, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) secured 193 seats, forming the government. The Awami League became the opposition with 62 seats. This parliament, like its predecessors, witnessed a parliamentary balance between the ruling and opposition parties. Under a caretaker government, the ninth National Parliament elections were held on December 29, 2008. The Awami League secured an overwhelming majority, winning 230 seats and forming the government. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) obtained only 30 seats in that election.

Subsequently, in the tenth National Parliament elections held on January 5, 2014, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) did not participate. In this election as well, the Awami League secured a majority, winning 234 seats and forming the government. They also had more than two-thirds of the total seats. The opposition party, the Jatiya Party, secured 34 seats.

However, this was the first time in the history of Bangladesh that an opposition party simultaneously held seats in the government. Due to this unique situation, many referred to the opposition party in this parliament as the 'government-opposition party.' The power dynamics and balance between the opposition and ruling parties observed in the fifth, seventh, and eighth parliaments took on a new form in the ninth parliament. This unique phenomenon continued into the tenth parliament. Such an extraordinary opposition party structure is rare not only in Bangladesh but also in any parliamentary democracy worldwide.

The role of Jatiya party as the opposition party in the National Parliament remained unchanged, even in the most recent Eleventh National Parliament. In the election held on December 30, 2018, Awami League secured more seats than the previous two elections. This time, they won 258 seats to form the government. With a reduced number of seats, the opposition party, the Jatiya Party, now stands at 22. In the recent election held on January 7, they secured only 11 seats.

The constitution and parliamentary proceedings of Bangladesh are governed by a procedural system in which there is no explicit provision regarding the recognition of an opposition party. In other words, there is no clear specification on how many seats out of three hundred would qualify a party as an opposition, or what the eligibility criteria for an opposition leader would be

However, even if there is no clear provision in the constitution or statutory framework, the long-standing tradition is that a party without at least one-tenth that means 30 seats, cannot be considered as an opposition party. Therefore, the question of whether a Jatiya party can occupy seats in the opposition with only 11 seats is now a significant one.

The general secretary of the Awami League, Obaidul Quader, has stated, "Many opposition parties have already won, and two out of fourteen parties have also won. It's not far off to make a decision on this. The one who will be the leader of the house will decide on this matter. The new Prime Minister, the new leader of the house, will undoubtedly make decisions based on the situation, reality, and necessities." It means the Jatiya party with 11 seats will sit in the opposition, and whether Jatiya Party leaders will lead the opposition or if independent candidates will form a new type of opposition alliance depends on the decision of the parliament leader and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

According to the law, those who have won as independent candidates are not members of any party in the parliament. However, after being elected as a Member of Parliament, if they wish, they can join any party that has representation in the parliament. In that case, they will be considered as MPs of that party. Therefore, out of the 62 independent candidates who have won, a significant number may join the Awami League's parliamentary party to be considered as MPs for the ruling party.

Again, some individuals may choose to give speeches in parliament and, with the hope of gaining additional benefits through the legislative process, may opt to sit as independent members in the opposition. The case of Fazlul Azim, an independent Member of Parliament in the ninth parliament, serves as a notable example. In discussions and legislative processes related to any issue, he has often received more privileges than MPs from the ruling party.

However, it is difficult to make a definitive statement at this moment about who will play the role of the main opposition party and who will be the leader of the opposition in the upcoming parliament.

The victory of 62 independent candidates in the upcoming election is a new development. Similarly, there might be some new developments in the formation of the opposition party in the parliament. This will be closely observed by the citizens of the country.

However, having a strong and effective opposition party is crucial in a parliamentary democracy. This is because without a balance of power between the government and the opposition, the ruling party might act without accountability and unchecked, potentially leading to decisions that may not be in the best interest of the country. The presence of a robust opposition ensures a system of checks and balances, fostering transparency, accountability, and a healthy democratic process. Therefore, in a parliamentary democracy, the acquisition of seats is crucial for maintaining a balance of power and fairness between the ruling party and the opposition.

If all major opposing parties participate in the election and the voting process remains free, fair, impartial, and credible, then the balance of power between the ruling and opposition parties is maintained in the acquisition of seats.

In the end, an effective parliament means having a strong opposition party, leading to lively debates. Sometimes, even if the opposition party has more members in terms of quantity, their lack of cohesion can render the parliament lifeless and unproductive. Again, even with fewer members, the opposition party can play a crucial role by holding the government accountable for mistakes and shortcomings on vital issues, thereby keeping the parliament vibrant.

Therefore, regardless of the numbers, whether those who will be in the opposition in the Twelfth Parliament can truly fulfill the role of an effective opposition will significantly impact the future of Bangladesh's parliamentary democracy and politics.

Author: Current Affairs Editor, Nexus Television.