Trump's policies could make US top Labour market for Bangladesh

Amid the tightening of immigration policies during Donald Trump's second term, a new opportunity might emerge for Bangladesh. Although the Trump administration is intensifying crackdowns on illegal immigration, there is a growing demand for skilled workers in the U.S. in sectors like security, construction, driving, and other service industries. Analysts believe that if Bangladesh's interim government, led by Dr. Muhammad Yunus, strategically pursues a labor agreement with the U.S., it could revolutionize foreign currency earnings for the country.

Trump's Policies and Labor Market Demand:
In recent weeks, the Trump administration has enforced stricter immigration and border policies, particularly accelerating the activities of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to deport illegal immigrants. This crackdown could lead to labor shortages in the U.S. construction, transportation, security services, and other service sectors, where approximately 14 million undocumented immigrants were previously employed. According to data from the Asian Development Bank, in Texas and California alone, 35% of construction worker vacancies need to be filled with legal labor.

Experts suggest that Dr. Muhammad Yunus's government should seize this opportunity to negotiate a special quota agreement to fill the vacancies with Bangladeshi workers. This proposal could include sending skilled workers for various positions, such as security guards, laborers, drivers, and hospital staff.

Industry insiders are curious about whether Yunus's representatives have already initiated discussions with U.S. labor departments and trade representatives. If not, they emphasize the importance of focusing on worker training, legal visa processing, and ensuring fair wages.

When asked about this, Gazi Md. Shahed Anwar, Deputy Secretary of the Ministry of Expatriates' Welfare and Overseas Employment, told Views Bangladesh that merely sending unskilled workers to the U.S. won't be beneficial. Instead, the focus should be on sending skilled labor. However, he also pointed out that the absence of a Bangladeshi labor wing in the U.S. could pose some challenges in pursuing this initiative.

How the Plan Will Work
Bilateral Agreement:
Many believe that leveraging the existing trade relationship between Bangladesh and the U.S. (approximately $12 billion) could pave the way for signing a labor agreement. Under this agreement, the U.S. would allocate a specific visa quota for a set number of workers each year, modeled after the H-2B (temporary non-agricultural worker) and H-2A (agricultural worker) visas. Additionally, expanding the E-3 visa category to include security guards and healthcare workers is also being considered.

Skill Development and Training:
To prepare Bangladeshi workers to meet U.S. standards, expatriates working in the U.S. suggest establishing training centers through public-private partnerships. For instance, setting up an "American Standard Skill Development Institute" in Dhaka could help workers learn English, technical skills, and security protocols.

Reforming the Recruitment Process:
Currently, the recruitment process for sending workers to the Middle East is plagued by exploitation and dominance by recruiting agencies. If Dr. Yunus's government intends to make this process more transparent, they must digitalize it, ensuring transparency and enabling direct connections between U.S. employers and Bangladeshi workers.

Ensuring Wages and Workers' Rights:
The agreement could be structured in alignment with U.S. labor laws and the federal minimum wage of $15 per hour, ensuring income security for Bangladeshi workers. Additionally, Professor Imtiaz Ahmed from the Department of International Relations at Dhaka University suggests including provisions for health insurance and legal assistance for workers in the agreement.

Economic Impact: A Dream of Surpassing the Middle East:
Currently, out of 15 million Bangladeshi expatriate workers, around 10 million are employed in the Middle East and Malaysia, where wages are low, labor rights violations are common, and the standard of living is poor. Consequently, remittance growth has stagnated. In contrast, the average wage in the U.S. is 5-7 times higher. Experts estimate that each worker could send an average of $2,500-$3,500 per month in remittances from the U.S.

Analysts predict that if Bangladesh manages to send 100,000 workers to the U.S. annually, foreign currency earnings could increase by $3-4 billion. This could boost Bangladesh's remittance income (currently at $25 billion) by 15-20%, potentially playing a game-changing role in the economy.

Professor Imtiaz Ahmed also noted that Trump's crackdown on illegal immigrants could be a blessing for Bangladesh if the country seizes this opportunity. He stated, “Trump is deporting illegal immigrants, but he's not targeting those who are legal. This policy could create a massive job market for Bangladesh in the U.S. right now.” He further explained that if industries expand in the U.S., they would require labor, presenting significant job opportunities for Bangladeshi workers. He emphasized the need for coordinated efforts among relevant ministries to capitalize on this opportunity.

Challenges and Potential Risks
Political Uncertainty in the U.S.:
The Trump administration has previously favored reducing labor visa quotas. However, if Trump is interested in strengthening ties with Bangladesh, this policy could be more flexible, especially in light of the U.S.-China trade war, where Bangladesh could be viewed as an alternative manufacturing hub.

Competition:
India, the Philippines, and Mexico already play significant roles in the U.S. labor market. Experts believe that for Bangladesh to secure a sustainable position amid this competition, it must enhance the skills and language proficiency of its workers.

Lack of Internal Reforms:
Bangladesh faces challenges due to weak institutional infrastructure for producing skilled manpower. Additionally, the corrupt recruitment process and high migration costs (around 400,000 to 700,000 BDT) pose significant barriers for workers.

Geopolitical Relevance:
Securing a labor agreement with the U.S. would not only bring economic benefits but also increase Bangladesh's strategic importance. The Trump administration aims to counter China's influence by strengthening ties with allied countries in the Indo-Pacific region. If Bangladesh gains access to the U.S. labor market, it could act as a balancing force against China-backed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects. Moreover, Bangladesh’s strategic position with India would be bolstered, as both the U.S. and India may look to form strategic alliances against China.

Dr. Yunus’s Role and International Support:
If Dr. Muhammad Yunus leverages his international network and initiates discussions with the World Bank, IMF, and members of the U.S. Congress to establish a labor agreement with the U.S., it could be a landmark achievement for Bangladesh.

A Historic Opportunity for Bangladesh:
If Bangladesh strategically capitalizes on the harshness of Trump’s immigration policies, it could transform the nation’s economic fortunes. However, this requires political vision, administrative efficiency, and strong relationships with international partners. If Dr. Yunus takes the right initiatives and succeeds, Bangladesh will not only gain foreign currency but also establish itself as a reliable name in the global labor market.

Regarding the potential for creating a large labor market for Bangladesh in the US, Md. Ruhul Amin, Secretary of the Ministry of Expatriates' Welfare and Overseas Employment, told Views Bangladesh that sending unskilled workers to European and American markets is not beneficial. Therefore, the ministry is already working on developing skilled workers for the European market.

He further stated that if the Ministry of Foreign Affairs can secure opportunities for sending Bangladeshi workers to the US market, the Ministry of Expatriates' Welfare will work on preparing skilled workers accordingly.