Ukraine war: Behind the scene and Trump's triumph

A rare event in the history of international diplomacy occurred in the United States on Friday, February 28th this year. On that day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President Donald Trump sat down for discussions in the Oval Office, attended by Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and many journalists. The plan was to sign a framework agreement between the United States and Ukraine regarding Ukraine's mineral resources after the meeting. However, during the meeting, a situation arose that not only made the agreement seem distant but also made it difficult for Zelenskyy to maintain relations with the United States. The language used and the body language displayed could have been expected in a tea shop or a pub, but such a "quarrel" in a place like the Oval Office was entirely unusual. Disagreements between two countries or two presidents can exist, but such a breach of diplomatic decorum has never been seen in the modern history of the world. Western countries, especially European nations, have been left stunned by this. We, too, are stunned, but there is a difference between Europe's astonishment and that of us, the third-world countries. I will come to that point shortly.

As soon as the contentious meeting ended, White House staff bluntly told President Zelensky, "Mr. President, you should leave now." There was no dinner! Without any formalities, Zelensky quickly left the White House and headed for Europe. Upon arrival, he immediately met with the British Prime Minister, and Britain extended him an overwhelmingly warm welcome. King Charles III received him at the Sandringham House salon in Norfolk and held discussions with him for nearly an hour. Through this warmth, Britain effectively sent a message to the United States that not only the British government but also the King himself fully supports Zelenskyy and Ukraine.

Apart from Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Hungarian President Viktor Orbán, the powerful countries of Europe continue to unconditionally support Zelensky. Particularly, France, Germany, Finland, Belgium, and the UK are firmly aligned in their support. However, Orbán and Vučić have substantial reasons for not aligning with the rest of Europe. Although they are members of the European Union, they do not wish to engage in any long-term hostility with their massive neighbour, Russia. Instead, they have a certain fascination with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The perspectives of these two presidents are quite similar to those of the renowned political economist Jeffrey Sachs from Columbia University. Sachs believes that, rather than relying on the United States, which is thousands of miles away across the Atlantic Ocean, European countries should strive to establish a peaceful relationship with Russia. After all, in the future, they will have to coexist permanently alongside Russia.

No matter how much President Trump is perceived as aggressive or outspoken, there is a reality behind the words he speaks and the decisions he makes. President Trump has repeatedly addressed Zelenskyy in a loud and clear manner, saying, "The cards are not in your hands; you are risking a third world war. Every week, thousands of young lives are being lost. To end this war, you must come to the negotiating table."

President Trump himself often says, "I am a nationalist, I am a businessman." He does not want the United States to spend money on this war. During his election campaign and even after being elected, he has repeatedly stated—and continues to say—"If I were in power, this war would not have started." He directly blames former Democratic President Joe Biden for this war.

Indeed, there are several hidden reasons behind President Trump's stance on this matter. President Donald Trump has disliked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from the very beginning and holds a particular grudge against him. There is a reason for this resentment as well. In 2008, American wealthy businessman Devon Archer and Joe Biden's son, Hunter Biden, founded an investment advisory firm called Rosemont Seneca Partners. In 2014, while Joe Biden was Vice President, Devon Archer and Hunter Biden joined the company Burisma, owned by Ukrainian oligarch Mykola Zlochevsky. They were paid $1 million annually as members of the Board of Directors. A lawsuit was filed against Burisma, and later, Zlochevsky bribed high-level Ukrainian investigators with $6 million to suspend the investigation. In 2015, Archer, Zlochevsky, and Hunter Biden made phone calls to Washington, D.C., to pressure officials to avoid taking any action against Burisma.

Meanwhile, in the 2016 election, Donald Trump was elected President of the United States, and in 2019, Volodymyr Zelenskyy was "elected" President of Ukraine. After Zelenskyy became president, Trump called to congratulate him and, at one point, requested Zelenskyy to ensure a proper investigation into the case involving his rival Joe Biden's son, Hunter Biden. Zelenskyy assured him that a fair investigation report would be provided. However, by then, Trump's first term was nearing its end. Zelenskyy realized that the Democrats were likely to win the upcoming election. He did not keep his promise to Trump. Zelenskyy's assumption proved correct, and Joe Biden was elected President. As a reward, President Biden began offering unconditional support to Zelenskyy in all matters, which ultimately led to the Russia-Ukraine war and $350 billion in military aid. Understanding some details about the Biden family's financial activities will help in comprehending the entire Ukraine war.

In September 2015, Joe Biden invited Romanian President Klaus Iohannis to the White House. Five weeks after the discussions with the Romanian president, Gabriel Popoviciu, a Romanian oligarch, deposited $3 million into Biden's accounts and 16 associated accounts. Popoviciu faced serious corruption charges in Romania. On April 22, 2014, Kenes Rakishev, a Kazakh oligarch, transferred $142,300 from his company, Novatus Holdings, to Hunter Biden's firm, Rosemont Seneca. The very next day, the same amount was sent from Rosemont to a car supplier's account to purchase a car for Hunter Biden. Elena Baturina, Russia's wealthiest woman, allegedly gave Hunter Biden and Archer $3.5 million after dining with Vice President Biden in 2014, which Republicans claim was concealed. In 2022, after Putin invaded Ukraine, the Biden administration imposed 24,000 sanctions on Russia; however, no sanctions were imposed on Baturina, who was once close to Putin. Baturina resides in Austria. The Chinese company State Energy HK Limited also paid $3 million to the Biden family. In a style reminiscent of third-world practices, the Biden family amassed wealth by leveraging U.S. power. It has now been proven, and many documents have surfaced, that the Biden administration interfered in various countries using state power. Many experts in the United States believe more evidence will emerge in the future.

Another point we must note is that the European Union has also spent a significant amount of money on this war; however, most of Europe's spending has been in the form of loans. In contrast, the majority of the funds provided by the United States have been grants. Almost all of the money spent by both sides has gone toward military purposes. President Trump believes, "Why should the United States bear this responsibility?"

Under the influence of Western media, we have been led to believe that this war is solely Russia's creation; however, Trump understands that this narrative is not entirely true. Why did Putin seize Crimea in 2014? Was it merely aggression? President Trump knows the answer. At that time, Ukraine's president was the Russia-backed Viktor Yanukovych. In 2013, protests began with Western support, now known as the Maidan movement. Yanukovych agreed to the protesters' demands, and a compromise was reached. However, someone or some group, using the police's name, opened fire on the crowd. Shots were fired from rooftops and streets toward the protesters, resulting in the deaths of over a hundred innocent demonstrators. Extremists also fired at the police, prompting them to retaliate. The protests intensified, and Yanukovych fled to Russia, relinquishing power. A Kyiv court, based on forensic evidence, later stated that extremists were responsible for the killings. The West was desperate to remove Yanukovych, primarily because he had leaned toward economic cooperation with Russia, sidelining Western interests.

The regions of Donbas and Luhansk in Ukraine have historically been home to Russian-speaking populations. Whenever a government that is not pro-Russian comes to power, the people of these regions face injustice and oppression. In response to numerous incidents and under Russian pressure, the Minsk-1 and Minsk-2 agreements were signed in 2015. According to these agreements, the Donbas region was supposed to gain limited autonomy. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, during his election campaign, promised to implement these agreements if elected. However, after winning the presidency in 2019, Zelenskyy not only failed to implement the agreements but also became increasingly hostile toward ethnic Russians and began purchasing heavy weapons from NATO. Simultaneously, he pressured Western countries to support Ukraine's bid to join NATO. In 1991, when the Soviet Union dissolved, there was an understanding that NATO would not expand further eastward. However, this promise was broken, and over time, smaller countries around Russia were gradually admitted into NATO. Putin viewed these developments unfavourably, but his primary objection was to Ukraine's potential NATO membership. When Zelenskyy fully aligned himself with the West and reneged on his promises, Putin, on February 21, 2022, recognized the independence of the Donbas region and deployed Russian troops as peacekeepers. He also pressured Zelenskyy to abandon Ukraine's bid to join NATO. When Zelensky refused, Putin launched a full-scale military invasion on February 24, 2022, marking the beginning of the war.

In this war, President Biden and Europe have been providing extensive support to Ukraine. Advanced military equipment has flooded into Ukraine like a torrent. Despite this, the powerful Russian forces have steadily captured Ukrainian territories, and the world has come to realize that if Putin faces defeat in this war, he may resort to using nuclear warheads. Russia possesses the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world. While Russia has also suffered significant losses in the war, the true extent of casualties among Ukraine's young soldiers has not been fully reported in the media. Young men and women from Ukraine have been forcibly dragged into the battlefield. Additionally, soldiers from Germany, Poland, France, and Africa have been fighting alongside Ukrainian forces, providing continuous support.

On the other hand, Russia has also received support from its allies—North Korea, Iran, and China. China has kept Russia economically stable, North Korea has provided direct assistance with troops and weapons, and Iran has supplied drones. In such a situation, Trump has decided that this war must end. He wants to take credit for it. At the same time, it is also true that he has a friendly relationship with Vladimir Putin. In multiple interviews, he has stated that he has good relations with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, Putin, and China’s President Xi. There is no doubt that this has somewhat eased tensions with these leaders.

Therefore, it would not be unreasonable to say that with Trump becoming president, the world may have narrowly avoided a third world war. He has already achieved some successes. On the other hand, Europe and Ukraine have no way to continue this war without the United States. No matter how much Europe wishes to carry on, without U.S. support, they are not capable of countering Russia. In fact, without U.S. assistance, Europe would face severe economic and military crises.

Mohsin Habib: Writer and International Analyst