US diplomacy struggles as war escalates

One year has passed since the attack by Hamas on Israel and the ensuing Gaza war. At the end of the year, the conflict has brought significant changes to the politics of the Middle East, and the war has spread further. The Hamas attack on Israel was a devastating day for Israelis. Nearly 1200 people, mostly civilians, were killed. Following the incident, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called US President Joe Biden and stated, “We have never seen such brutality in the history of our state.” Israelis viewed the Hamas attack as an existential threat. In retaliation, Israel launched a massive attack on Gaza, which led to the death of nearly 43,000 people, the majority of whom were civilians according to the health ministry run by Hamas. A large part of Gaza was reduced to rubble, and Israel has been accused of committing genocide against Palestinians.

The war has spread further. Twelve months after Hamas’ initial attack, the Middle East now stands on the brink of an even more devastating and destructive conflict. Alongside this, the Ukraine-Russia war has inflicted severe damage to global energy, food, and economic systems. On October 7th of last year, Hamas launched land, air, and naval attacks on Israel. This resulted in the death of 1,200 Israelis and 250 military and civilian hostages taken by Hamas. Despite Israel being considered an occupying oppressive power under international law and UN resolutions, they positioned themselves as victims of Hamas’ terrorist attacks and launched a full-scale assault on Gaza. Since then, the conflict has expanded into Lebanon, and it has now transformed into a full-scale war between Iran and Israel.

The devastating war has resulted in an estimated 43,000 Palestinian deaths in Gaza, most of whom are women and children. Thousands have been displaced. In addition to this, Israel, under the pretext of eradicating Hamas, has caused significant damage to Gaza’s key infrastructure, such as hospitals, schools, universities, and refugee camps. However, according to field observers, most of the Israeli attacks appear to be aimed at eliminating Gaza’s population rather than defeating Hamas. In some cases, these actions have been seen as a genocidal campaign against Palestinians. The Israeli military campaign did not stop in Gaza, but expanded the war regionally, with attacks and operations in the West Bank, Golan Heights, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon.

Unfortunately, despite calls for a ceasefire and dialogue, Israel has refused to participate in any negotiations. Additionally, Israel began killing targeting high-ranking leaders of the Iranian-backed resistance coalition, including Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, clearly signaling that it would not stop in Gaza. The ultimate goal appears to be drawing the Iranian government into a regional war. In the context of the US presidential election, international experts had been divided over Israel's actions in the region. Some believe that escalating the conflict in Gaza could strengthen Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s support at home, potentially diverting international attention from the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Others believe that a regional war could weaken the resistance axis, which poses an ongoing threat to Israel’s existence.

Pushing Iran into conflict could potentially revive Western political, financial, and military support for Israel’s campaign in the region. If Israel were to kill Hassan Nasrallah, Iran’s strategic patience could be reduced. On October 1, Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, some of which were not intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome system. Iran has made it clear that, in the face of unwarranted Israeli aggression and jingoistic nationalism, it has the right to self-defense. In response to Iran’s missile strikes, Israel is reportedly considering attacking Iran’s nuclear and oil installations. In turn, Iran has made it clear that it would counter such provocations by targeting any oil facilities in the region.

Therefore, the ongoing crisis presents a recipe for igniting a war both in the region and beyond, with catastrophic consequences for the global economy. If attacks occur on oil installations in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Peninsula, the global ramifications could be dire. The region supplies one-third of the world’s oil and gas resources, making it critical to the international energy market. Key commercial routes intersect here, including the Red Sea, Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Bab-el-Mandeb, all of which are strategically important. Any disruption along these routes, particularly if Iran and its proxies exert influence over these crucial waterways, could cause oil prices to soar. This could have a ripple effect on global trade, production, and supply chains, potentially causing significant disruptions worldwide.

Unfortunately, throughout the course of the conflict, the relentless support from the United States has encouraged Israeli nationalism. As a result, any time in the Middle East, a regional war could erupt, bringing nothing but instability, chaos, violence, and a series of wars. Since the October 7 attack, the Biden administration in the United States has supported Israel’s continuous war crimes in Gaza under the guise of self-defense. Through political, economic, military, and diplomatic approval, the US has taken a stance in favor of Netanyahu’s policies. Recently, the United States approved a $20 billion military package for Israel in support of the ongoing war, which has already extended beyond the Gaza Strip. Key US institutions such as Congress, the Pentagon, the State Department, and mainstream American media have openly supported Israel’s operations in the Middle East.

Despite the US public’s reluctance to approve another war in the Middle East, the United States will actively participate in it. Therefore, it is easy to conclude that due to the influence of the Jewish lobby in the US, American foreign policy is deeply entangled with Israel’s strategic objectives in the region. Additionally, with the presence of US military bases and nearly 40,000 US soldiers in the region, Israel has developed the belief that it cannot defeat Iran without full support from the United States. It seems the world’s major powers have ignored historical lessons. Lasting peace in the region depends on the self-determination of the Palestinian people and the establishment of a viable and sovereign Palestinian state.

Therefore, immediate action must be taken to ensure a ceasefire and to halt Israel's war crimes against the Palestinians. Western powers should engage Iran and re-integrate it into the international community as a responsible state. Otherwise, geopolitical tensions, regional conflicts, and proxy wars will pose a serious threat to global peace, security, and the economy. Furthermore, aside from unknown variables like Hezbollah's activities on the Israel-Lebanon border and Houthi attacks targeting ships in the Red Sea from their stronghold in Yemen, the situation remains highly complex. The Gaza war still carries the risk of escalating into a regional conflict due to accidental clashes, communication failures, or mistaken operations by non-state actors.

In conclusion, the role of the United States must also be considered, as it is closely working with Egypt and Qatar in the current negotiations and has shown its centrality by ensuring some humanitarian aid flow into Gaza. However, President Biden’s shift from his previous distaste for Netanyahu’s policies to expressing strong support for Israel, along with the Democratic Party's inclination to approach the matter more balanced, reveals a clear divide. Since the Republicans primarily support both Netanyahu and Israel, the evolving political dynamics in Washington, DC will become another significant puzzle. This is not only disrupting global peace, order, and security but also putting increasing pressure on the global economy.

Rayhan Ahmed Tapader: Researcher and Columnist