Voters who matter in this election

Finally, the 12th Jatiya Sangsad (National Assembly) elections are being held amid widespread speculation, BNP-Jamaat alliance vote boycott, sabotage, resistance, and anxiety from the United Nations, international organizations, human rights organizations, and various quarters. This time, a total of 1966 candidates from 28 political parties are vying for 299 seats. Among them, 436 are independent candidates - a record. The number of total voters is 11,91,51,440. Among them, 5,87,04,879 are women, and 6,44,05,724 are male voters.

Although everyone is interested in the heavyweight candidates in the election battle, the vote result may change if the voters are thoughtful, responsible, and strategic. If the electorate rises above parochialism and votes for honest, competent, talented, and philanthropic candidates, the big-time candidates may sink through the floor.

With the media's focus on election heavyweights, independent candidates have no end of grievances. According to them, the media only focuses on the bigwigs and propaganda of the much talked about Awami League, Jatiya Party, JSD, Workers Party, Trinamool BNP, neglecting the independent and others. The first-timers or young voters, women voters, garment workers, tea plantation workers, tribals of plains and hills, low-income people, sweepers, especially Dalits and Harijans, cobblers, snake-charmer communities, schedule caste people, drivers, religious minorities like Qadiani, Ahl al-Hadith and Shia can be important determinants of the results in this election. Besides, the Bihari community living together in different districts of the country apart from Dhaka could be a factor in the vote.

The electoral law was amended on November 13, 2013, after the government granted state recognition to third-gender people. Now, people of the third gender are standing at the polls and going to the center to vote. Apart from this, slum dwellers floating voters may factor in the election results.

Islamic or religious vote may be an essential factor as well. There are numerous madrassas across the country. Most of these are Sunni-run Qawmi madrasas. The Hefazat-e-Islam-controlled madrasas are casting their votes for which candidate is an important issue. Candidates must campaign for votes with many considerations; calculations must be made. Now, let's see how fair, impartial, and unimpeded the voters can go to the center and vote for their favorite candidate!

This time, there is a debate about how much the party candidates have managed to win the hearts of the voters. The main strength of the candidates in the election is the party voter. As many candidates have personal image votes, the first votes of freedom fighters and the young generation may add up.

Apart from this, the political, social, and religious identity and image of the candidate's parents' family identity (such as Chowdhury, Kazi, Khan, Dewan, Mia, and Molla clan) will be a factor in the vote. Whether their local voters come to vote in fear is a matter of seeing!

The big challenge for the candidates this time is that party workers, supporters, and well-wishers of the BNP-Jamaat alliance may not come to the center to vote. On the other hand, local politics and equations factor in voting, and when relatives stand in elections, it is difficult not to cast ballots for them. The party co—theration, however, stands above all.

This time, many influential candidates, while campaigning, warned that voters who do not come to vote on election day will be excluded from old age allowance, destitute allowance, freedom fighter allowance, government allowance, and other benefits. It is a clear violation of the electoral code of conduct. As all the parties are not in the polls, the 'non-Awami Leaguer' voters who had decided not to vote will now go to vote, fearing the arrogance of the ruling party's candidates.

Elections can be somewhat acceptable in the domestic and international arena if spontaneous voter turnout increases, and there are fewer bloody clashes or casualties on the polling day. To pass this challenge smoothly, the candidates should bring the voters to the centers by hand-holding, explaining, or with the help of local dignitaries, elders, religious leaders, or imams of mosques. Only then the vote turnout will increase.

Many areas of Dhaka have slums. Low-income people live here. The concentration of low-income voters is higher in the slum areas of the city including Kurail Basti in Gulshan, Sattola Basti in Mohakhali, Mohammadpur Bihari Camp, Kalshi Bihari Camp in Mirpur, Agargaon, Mollar Basti in Mirpur, Karwan Bazar area, Tejgaon, Titpara, Jurain, Shyampur, Kamrangir Char. Because of the voters in the slums, there is a chance that the results of many seats may change.

The polarization of Islamic votes greatly influences the electoral outcomes. Almost ninety percent of the more than 700 Qawmi Madrasahs in Dhaka and Chittagong are under the dominance of Hefazat-e-Islam. According to Qwami Madrasa Education Board - BEFAK data, there are more madrassas and voters north of Dhaka than in the south. Mirpur, Mohammadpur, Sutrapur, Faridabad, Jatrabari, Pallabi, Lalbagh, Baridhara and Uttara have more Qawmi Madrasas. Among them, Faridabad Madrasa in Sutrapur, Lalbagh Madrasa, Jamia Rahmania in Mohammadpur, Mohammadia, Arzabad Madrasa in Mirpur, Jameul Uloom, Mirpur-6 in Pallabi and Madania Madrana in Baridhara. In all, the number of voters supporting Hefazt-e-Islam, including Madrasah students and teachers in Dhaka, would be several hundred thousand. So, the outcome of the vote depends to some extent on how this Madrasa vote bank eventually wins over any candidate.

In Dhaka, Chittagong, Rajshahi, Rangpur, Khulna, Sylhet, and Barisal divisions, 'district quota' is a significant factor. Besides migrated voters from Noakhali, Barishal, Chittagong, Feni, Comilla, Gopalganj, Kishoreganj, Chapai Nabganj, and Rangpur areas, North Bengal quota-voters will play an essential role in the election results. The District societies have programs in the name of secret hosts, picnics, exchanges, sports, and social and cultural events during the election campaign.

Meanwhile, many candidates, voters, and their supporters have opened various groups on social media for campaigning. Various batches and groups of district associations, Colleges, university alum associations, SSC, and HSC play a significant role. Therefore, digital campaigning may change the vote tally in many constituencies.

Money is also an essential factor in voting. Industrialists, black mone-lords, many influential candidates, and their workers go door to door in the dead of night and hand over cash to voters. While giving money, they often swear by touching the Holy Quran. Because we have entered the Digital Age, many candidates hesitate or fear to pay cash. The best transaction is a digital transaction through Bkash or cash. Therefore, money is entering the accounts of many people every day based on their votes. Here, the candidates who own ill-gotten money also come out successfully in significant numbers.

According to the election expert and chief director of Democracy International (DI), Abdul Alim, vote-buying is an age-old criminal culture of the subcontinent. But now, with the digital system, many candidates are transacting money with their people to poor and low-income voters online, i.e., through apps like Bkash Nagad or Rocket, which is a legally punishable offense that the Election Commission cannot strictly control. Although this country has a law to curb vote buying, it is not strictly enforced. According to Dr. Alim, preventing regular vote-buying is not only a challenging task but also hard to control. Awareness should be raised among people. But intelligence surveillance and activity should also be visibly increased. In this case, with help from Bangladesh Bank and cooperation from money transaction institutions, if the intelligence services track unusual transactions through mobile apps like Bkash, Nagad, U-pay, Rocket, etc., and bring these dishonest people to justice, digital vote-buying can be curbed to some extent.

Meanwhile, Dilip Kumar Sarkar, chief coordinator of Citizens for Good Governance, says that the primary responsibility of the Election Commission is to sensitize everyday voters to stop digital vote-buying. Although they have made party candidates and voters aware through various programs and campaigns, no visible action from the EC has been seen in this regard. But suppose the parties nominate honest and qualified candidates free from the influence of black money. In that case, these dishonest candidates will have confidence in themselves and will not resort to buying votes.

Voting in elections is a thousand-year-old culture; winning this game involves ingenuity, challenge, strategy, and intelligence. However, there is no alternative for the Election Commission and the law enforcement agencies to be strict to prevent rigging or rigging of the polls. Therefore, fellow citizens are waiting for who will win the hearts of the ordinary people through a free, fair, neutral, rigged, and acceptable national election after passing thousands of worries, anxiety, resistance, exclusion, and doubt.

Author: Journalist and MPhil researcher on elections in Bangladesh.