Was Assad's fall a result of challenging Israel?

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been ousted, and Russia has provided refuge to him and his family. In a swift 11-day campaign, armed rebel groups in Syria captured the capital, Damascus, forcing Assad to flee the country. The ruling Ba'ath Party, which had been in power for 61 years, ended with the takeover by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, one of Syria’s armed factions. Since 1971, Bashar al-Assad and his father, Hafez al-Assad, had ruled Syria. After Hafez al-Assad’s death in 2000, his son Bashar al-Assad took power. Following the capture of Damascus, Mohammad al-Bashir has been appointed as the interim government head. Assad’s two close allies, Russia and Iran, have been deeply involved in regional conflicts. Russia has been at war with Ukraine for several years, while Iran and its supported armed groups, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, have been battered by Israeli attacks. However, only recently, Hezbollah fighters had fought on Assad’s side against Sunni rebel groups. After Israeli airstrikes, Iran is no longer as mentally resilient as before. Seizing this opportunity, Syrian rebel groups became more active, and with Assad’s forces retreating from the battlefield, it became easy for Sunni rebel groups to secure victory.

In 2011, peaceful protests that began due to intense unemployment and corruption quickly escalated into demands for President Bashar al-Assad's resignation. By the end of 2011, the angry public, along with deserted soldiers, began an armed conflict. Most of the rebels were Sunni Muslims, while the majority of Assad's government officials were Shia Muslims. Syria's population is 74 per cent Sunni, 12 per cent Shia, and 10 per cent Christian, leading to sectarian Sunni-Shia tensions in the civil war. Sunni-majority countries, including Saudi Arabia, supported the rebels, and Syria’s membership in the Arab League was revoked. Iran, being a Shia-majority country, naturally supported the Assad government.

A sense of solidarity among people of the same religion is observed worldwide. In 1974, Turkey invaded Cyprus to protect its 18 per cent Turkish Cypriot Sunni Muslim population and occupied the northern part of Cyprus, declaring it an independent state. To this day, only Turkey recognizes the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. After Turkey’s occupation, Muslims from various areas of Cyprus migrated to the north, while Greek Cypriots moved to the south. A similar migration occurred during the partition of India in 1947, when people from Bengal and Punjab moved across borders. Using the same rationale, Russia has also occupied Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Crimea regions, declaring them independent states; the people living in these regions are ethnically Russian. Due to ethnic and religious divisions, Syria has also been fragmented; since 2018, Bashar al-Assad, Kurdish forces, and Islamist rebels have controlled various regions of Syria.

In the Middle East, Iran was the only country that challenged Israel's existence. For Iran, utilizing Syrian territory to maintain contact with Lebanon's armed Hezbollah group was crucial. Syria served as an important supply route for Iran to provide support to Hezbollah and other regional armed groups. Supplying weapons to Hezbollah may no longer be feasible for Iran. In a recent Israeli operation, 80 per cent of the missiles stored by Hezbollah were destroyed. This highlighted that Iran is not invincible, but rather a weak state, as demonstrated by Israel’s recent airstrikes on Iran. The groups now in power in Syria include Hezbollah, which, not long ago, fought on Bashar al-Assad's side with Iranian support. However, as Hezbollah became embroiled in a war with Israel, Sunni rebels in Syria seized the opportunity. With support from the US, Europe, Saudi Arabia, and many other countries, Sunni rebels came close to victory in 2015, but Russia’s military intervention prevented Assad's downfall. Just before his fall, Russian airstrikes began, but as the Syrian army refrained from fighting, even Russia's airstrikes couldn't save Assad.

In 2013, President Bashar al-Assad also had to face the rise of the world's most notorious terrorist group, ISIS (Islamic State). ISIS became so popular among radical Muslims that young people from Muslim-majority countries, as well as from the UK, France, Germany, and other European nations, joined ISIS. Many young women abandoned luxurious lives to become wives of ISIS fighters in Syria. Exploiting the Sunni marginalization in Iraq and Syria, ISIS expanded rapidly, capturing vast territories in both countries. Had it not been for US, European, and Russian airstrikes, ISIS would likely have controlled all of Syria and Iraq in a short time. Despite facing Western airstrikes, ISIS remained resilient for a long time. Ultimately, US, Russian, French, and UK airstrikes led to ISIS's defeat, and they retreated to the Syrian desert. After Assad's fall, ISIS has re-emerged. However, the US continues to conduct airstrikes on ISIS positions to prevent their resurgence.

Syria has been devastated by a thirteen-year civil war. After the victory of the rebel Sunnis, another crisis has unfolded. Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Israel has launched over five hundred attacks across Syria; the Syrian navy has been completely destroyed, 20 key information technology facilities have been obliterated, and Syria's advanced weapons stockpiles have been wiped out. Not only weapons stockpiles, but Israel is continuing airstrikes to destroy the remaining strength of the Syrian army. Syria is being rendered militarily crippled. These airstrikes are aimed at preventing the victorious rebels from using Assad's weapons against Israel. After Assad's fall, there is a possibility of conflict among Syria’s various armed groups. If inter-factional clashes erupt among these groups, Syria's diverse and divided population may become victims of ethnic and sectarian politics. Even though the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group has taken control, various hostile factions still control different parts of the country. If these armed groups do not agree to share power for national unity, the civil war will continue. The humanitarian crisis in Syria, exacerbated by years of conflict, is dire. Millions of displaced Syrians have sought refuge in Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Germany, and other European countries. The country’s economy and infrastructure are in ruins, and millions of people are living in extreme distress.

In recent psychological struggles to gain parity with India, we in Bangladesh have been vocal about our sovereignty and existence. However, despite being dictators, leaders like Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi, Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, and Panama’s Noriega had a deep love for their country and sacrificed their lives for its survival. In the Middle East, it seems no other country, except Israel, has true sovereignty. Israel is the only country, and Benjamin Netanyahu the only prime minister, who can say, "We will do whatever we want." With unconditional support from America and Europe, the rest of the world helplessly watches the tragic deaths and defeats of Muslims at Israel’s hands. Gaddafi's brutal killing was so brutal that watching the footage of his death inspired Putin to remove Syria’s Bashar al-Assad.

From 1971, Hafez al-Assad and his son Bashar al-Assad ruled Syria consecutively. Both were staunchly anti-Israel. Apart from Israel, nearly every country in the Middle East was governed by kings, dictators, or military rulers, with no trace of democracy. Israel stands as the only democratic state in the region. Within Israel, there exists a fully democratic governance system, but its external character is fascist. A prime example of a democratic leader who can also be fascist is Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. By bringing down Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Israel has effectively crippled the Iran-led coalition in the Middle East, known as the 'Axis of Resistance.' This coalition consists of Iran-backed armed groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi rebels, and Iraqi Shia militias. Hamas has been almost obliterated, Shia militias and Hezbollah have been defeated, and only the Houthis remain. The latest implementation of Israel's plan to reshape the Middle East is the downfall of Bashar al-Assad. With his fall, the last dictator who posed a challenge to Israel has been removed.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad not only secures Israel, but it also provides a sense of safety to Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and all other monarchies. Thus, I am sorry that I cannot say "Alhamdulillah" like many others at Assad's downfall.

Zeauddin Ahmed: Former Executive Director of Bangladesh Bank.