What is India’s stance on Indus Waters Treaty

Following mediation by US President Donald Trump, India and Pakistan finally agreed to a ceasefire on Saturday, bringing an end to four days of heightened military tensions along their shared border. While the ceasefire has restored some normalcy, many are now questioning whether India will also abide by the Indus Waters Treaty in this context of de-escalation.

Sources indicate that although India has agreed to a temporary ceasefire with Pakistan, it has no intention of complying with the Indus Waters Treaty at this point. There appears to be no likelihood of India reversing its decision.

Political analysts, however, argue that blocking the flow of the Indus River waters cannot happen quickly. Constructing the necessary infrastructure would require significant time and investment. This raises the question: will India withdraw from its previous stance on the Indus issue? So far, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs has made no official comment. But according to a Reuters report citing a senior Indian government official, the Indus Treaty was not discussed during the ceasefire negotiations.

It is widely believed that India will maintain its current position. In other words, the Indian government’s decision to suspend the treaty remains unchanged for now. Citing a source from Pakistan's Ministry of Water Resources, Reuters also reported that there was no discussion on the treaty during the ceasefire talks.

It’s worth recalling that after nine years of negotiations, the Indus Waters Treaty was signed on September 19, 1960, under international mediation. The agreement was brokered by the World Bank, with Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President General Ayub Khan signing the treaty. The agreement states that although both India and Pakistan can use the water for their needs, neither side can obstruct the flow under any circumstances.

When the Modi government announced the suspension of the treaty, many interpreted it as the beginning of India’s process to withdraw from the water-sharing agreement with Pakistan—something that had never occurred during previous wars in 1965, 1971, or 1999.

If India were to revoke the Indus Waters Treaty, it could have devastating consequences for Pakistan’s agriculture, as rivers such as the Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rely heavily on the Indus River system. Suspending the treaty could effectively lead to drought conditions on Pakistan's farmland.

Meanwhile, amid the escalating tensions, Pakistan had closed its airspace. According to AFP, Islamabad has now lifted that restriction and reopened its airspace following the ceasefire agreement.